High pressure remains in control for the time being. This will supply New England with lots of sunshine and above normal temperatures through the day tomorrow. Sadly, the pleasant weather won't continue into the upcoming weekend as a storm developing in the Central US will be unsettled conditions on Friday.
I won't talk too much about today and tomorrow. Sunshine and relatively mild. I'm going to focus on the mess that is coming on Friday. The forecast models are finally coming to an agreement and fortunately it will be to the benefit of much of New England. It is that warmer solution I have been mentioning over the past couple of days. The low pressure system will pass just to the west of the region, pushing warmer air in at the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Timing this system will still pose some difficulty. Right now it looks like some of the precipitation will arrive before the sun comes up on Friday morning. This will result in a period of wintry precipitation. Probably starting with some snow, then changing over to sleet and freezing rain. Southern New England will only see a couple of hours of this before changing over to all rain after the sun comes up. Temperatures in SNE should gradually climb to the upper 30s and lower 40s. Southern VT and NH will likely see an extra hour or so of wintry mix before changing over, this will likely happen by 9 AM or so. Further north in Central VT and NH, the wintry mix will likely last into the middle of the day before warming up enough for rain to mix in. 2-4 inches of snow and sleet are likely before the transition. North and west of Laconia, I expect all snow. Right now my feeling is 6-10 inches. I'll put together a forecast snow total map tomorrow.
Flooding could still be a concern, though this may be limited now since temperatures aren't going to be overly warm on Friday and we've had some solid melting over the last week. However, most of the forecast models are showing an inch of liquid across Central MA and Southern NH over a 6 hour period. As long as the rivers are clear of ice, which they should be and street drains are clear of ice, flooding should be minor. There will be some ponding on roadways and some standing water is low lying spots, that should be the extent of it.
We will likely see a shot of light snow across nearly all of New England on Sunday as a weak low pressure system races through. I'm not expecting much more than 3 inches at this time. The pattern will remain active into next week. Look for another storm on Tuesday, appears to be all rain right now. Then another weak system Thursday/Friday.
Stay tuned!
-Jon K.
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