Sunday AM Sandy update

I apologize for my lack of blog posts yesterday.  I had numerous chores to take care of around the house that was more important.

In the grand scheme of things, my outlook has not changed.  My forecast of a Central NJ landfall continues.  All the forecast models are trending toward this solution.  HOWEVER, this is not the only area that will be impacted.  The "zone" of impact is very, very large.  Tropical storm force winds will extend some 500 miles away from the center of the storm, particularly on the north and west side of the storm.  That means that from Northern NH and VT westward to Buffalo and Pittsburgh will experience winds and wind gusts over 35 mph.  This is going to lead to power outages and damage.  I believe the worst of the damage is going to be in Northern NJ, NYC area and Southern CT and RI.  Further inland the reports of damage will be a bit more widespread.  Here is a good depiction of the large area of impact Sandy will have, taken from The Weather Channel:

As you can see that nearly the entire Northeastern United States along with a good portion of the Mid-Atlantic will feel the effects of the very large weather system.

Currently, the National Hurricane Center is still calling Sandy a hurricane, however, the tropical characteristics are all but gone.  It appears the reason they are continuing to give a name to Sandy and classify it as a "tropical" system to highlight the importance of the event.  They likely don't want to the public to disregard the impacts.

High winds are already lashing the North Carolina coast.  Conditions will continue to deteriorate further to the north on the Delmarva Peninsula and into NJ throughout the day today and tonight.  By tomorrow morning, there will be tropical storm force winds covering the NYC Metro area into Southern New England.  Through the day on Monday, the area of tropical storm force winds will spread north and westward encompassing nearly all of New England and much of NY and PA.

I stress that you need to pay close attention to local media outlets and obey any orders given by local authorities.  This could be a once in a lifetime storm and it is nothing to take lightly.  This is especially the case form Cape Cod, down the Eastern Seaboard to Cape Hatteras.  Please be safe.

I hope to have another update this afternoon.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon

Last Friday update

Not too much to report on, at least in the form of changes.  Models run are just starting to trickle and I'm too tired to stay up to wait for them to finish.

The National Hurricane Center has done something that I find rather curious.  They have shifted their forecast a bit further to the south, despite all the forecast models showing a more northern solution in the latest model runs.  Seems strange to me, but they are professionals and must see something that suggests this.  The offical track from the Hurricane Center takes the center of the system up the Delaware River.

I'm still thinking that this system makes landfall in Central NJ, probably just north of Atlantic City.  At this point, it will no longer be considered a hurricane.  It will have lost all of it's tropical characteristics.  HOWEVER; wind speeds will exceed hurricane force strength, especially wind gusts.  This will particularly be the case on the northern side of the system.

So Northern NJ, NYC, Long Island, Cape Cod and the South Coast of New England will have some very strong winds from this system, despite the center staying south of these areas.  Widespread damage and power outages are expected in this region, with power outages expected from Central NH westward to Buffalo, NY and southward into West Virginia. 

Also, expect to see some heavy snow on the back side of the system, primarily in Eastern Ohio and especially in the hills of West Virginia.  Up to a foot of snow isn't out of the question at higher elevations in WV.

That's going to do it for today.  If anyone has any questions, let me know.  More updates coming tomorrow between my own preparations for this storm.

-Jon

Update #3

All the Friday morning model runs have shifted the track of Sandy further to the north.  This is an interesting development, but not something that should be bought, hook, line and sinker.  It's just one mathematical solution to a very complex storm.

Currently, Sandy is going through a transformation from a tropical system to a subtropical or extra tropical storm.  Recent satellite images show almost no convection on the southern side of the storm.  Full-fledged tropical systems almost always have a closed core of convection.  This transition is happening as it interacts with a strong upper level low pressure system.  As this happens, Sandy will weaken initially, which is already happening.  However, once the transition to fully complete, Sandy will begin to strengthen again.

There are a lot of similarities with this situation and what happened during the "Perfect Storm" in 1991.  They may even happen on the same exact day.

I stress that much can and probably will change over the next couple of days.  However, if you have interests in the Northeast, from Delaware to Portland, ME, you need to start acting now.  I believe that a landfall somewhere between Southern NJ and Montauk, NY is the most likely scenario.

The wind field for Sandy will be very large.  Tropical Storm force winds will extend several hundred miles out away from the center of the storm and there will likely be hurricane force wind gusts on the east and northern side of the system.  To the north of Sandy when she makes landfall will be an area of high pressure.  The collision of Sandy into this high will help to increase wind speeds and this will happen on the north side of the storm's center.

That's enough gloom and doom for now.  More to come....

-Jon

Model snapshot for Sunday night

Below are 2 snapshots of where Sandy is forecast to be by the 2 models meteorologists are relying on heavily at this point.  Images come from weather.unisys.com.  Full credit goes to them.

This is the European model which was the first to hint that Sandy would be a problem for the Eastern US.  You'll notice that the center(all the closed circles east of the Carolinas) is closer to the coast than the image below.

The difference may only be about 100 miles or so, but that will make all the difference when it comes to where Sandy, or what it will be at that point, makes landfall.

I'll have another update early this afternoon with model information from this mornings run.

-Jon

Here comes Sandy

I'll be updating this as much as possible today and through the weekend.  Keep checking back here often.  To start off the morning, here it the forecast track that the National Hurricane Center has for Sandy.  In general, I'm in agreement with this path, though my gut tells me that landfall will be a bit farther north than is depicted in the picture below.
























More to come...

-Jon