Friday, April 29, 2011

Pleasant but a bit cool

We'll have a relatively nice weekend coming up, but temperatures will be a bit cooler than the last few days.

Today:  Partly to mostly sunny, slight chance of a shower inland, highs around 70 south, mid 60s north.

Tonight:  Mainly clear south, partly cloudy north with a few isolated showers, lows in the 40s south, mid to upper 30s north.

Tomorrow:  Partly to mostly sunny, highs in the lower 60 both north and south.

Tomorrow night:  Mainly clear, lows in the low 40s south, upper 20s and low 30s north.

Sunday:  Mostly sunny, highs in the low 60s north and south, upper 50s along the coast.

Discussion:

High pressure is in control at the surface for this weekend.  It hasn't quite taken control yet and because of this, there might be a few showers across the interior of New England.  Behind the cold front that moved through last night, cooler air has moved in aloft.  As the sun heats up the surface today, this will create lift in the atmosphere and produce some cloudiness.  There is also enough instability left behind that may help to kick off a few isolated showers across the region.  It looks like most of this activity will be across the interior of New England, mainly this afternoon.

As high pressure takes full control tomorrow, the risk of showers will diminish.  We'll be left with plenty of sunshine, but slightly cooler temperatures.  Saturday will be the better of the two days, mainly because I'm expecting a sea breeze to develop on Sunday.  This will keep coastal areas a bit cooler.

Our next chance of unsettled weather will be on Monday with a cold front moving through.  Mostly just expecting showers, but a few thunderstorms might be possible.  Tuesday looks dry at this point and then Wednesday looks to be messy.  One model indicates that temperatures aloft will be cold enough to support snow, that's right, snow.  Do I think we will see snow, I'm not sure yet.  It's a possibility that some higher elevations could see some snow, but not all the models have this storm hitting the region.  Time will tell.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Cold front passage

A cold front will move through New England today followed by what looks like a decent weekend.

Today:  Mostly cloudy, chance of showers and thunderstorms, highs in the low 70s south, upper 60s north.

Tonight:  Any showers and thunderstorms end, partial clearing, lows near 50 south, upper 30s north.

Tomorrow:  Partly sunny, maybe an isolated shower or two inland, highs near 70 south, low to mid 60s north.

Tomorrow night:  Clear to partly cloudy, lows in the mid and upper 40s south, mid and upper 30s north.

Saturday/Sunday:  Plenty of sunshine, slight chance of a shower north, highs in the upper 50s and low 60s south, 50s to near 60 north.

Discussion:

A cold front will pass through New England today.  This front is just about out of energy so I don't think we will have anything significant across much of New England as it moves through.  There were some warnings in effect across the Hudson Valley this morning in NY, but those storms are weakening and will probably just end up being thundershowers for Western New England this morning.  The front will start to get stretched out this afternoon and it will start to split.  Some energy will go north in Canada, the rest will stay south and slide below New England.  We should only have widely scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms through the evening.

Once the front clears we are in for a decent weekend.  There will be some cold air aloft that may help to kick off a few light showers at times across the interior of New England.  Other than that, we'll have a decent amount of sun and seasonable temperatures.

Please keep the people affected by the severe weather outbreak in your thoughts today, that was one of the worst tornado outbreaks since the Super Outbreak of 1974.  So far I've seen reports of 160 tornadoes and over 180 people dead.  Staggering numbers.  Several of these storms passed over densely populated areas and many happened late in the evening when people were sleeping.  Some entire small towns in Georgia were completely destroyed.  Debris that was created and then picked up by the tornadoes were falling from the sky 50 miles from where the tornado was located.  There was debris and hail falling at the same time.  The debris was getting sucked up into the tornado, taken way way up into storm and then was blown out ahead of the storm by 50 miles!

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Warmer today, storms tomorrow?

Dealing with some fog and mist this morning, but this will burn off allowing some sun to develop.

Today:  Morning areas of fog gives way to partial sunshine, maybe a few late day showers and storms in western New England, highs ranging from the upper 60s along the coast to low 70s inland.

Tonight:  Showers and thunderstorms possible, especially before 3 AM, lows in the 50s.

Tomorrow:  Some patchy morning fog then some breaks of sun.  Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, a few storms may be strong, especially in Western New England, highs in the low to mid 70s.

Tomorrow night:  Showers and thunderstorms depart, clearing, lows near 40 north, upper 40s and low 50s south.

Friday:  Partly sunny, chance of an isolated shower inland, highs in the mid to upper 60s south, around 60 north.

Discussion:

Rough day of forecasting yesterday.  I've never had much luck with forecasting the passage of those warm front.  Ask any meteorologist in New England and they'll likely tell you that they are the hardest to predict.  Anyway, onto today.  We are dealing with some fog this morning, but the combination of a southerly wind and strong sun above the low clouds will burn off the fog leading to some sun today.  We will see some showers and thunderstorms flare up across Upstate NY and Central PA during the early afternoon hours and they will make their way toward New England.  This looks like it will really only be a factor for Western New England late afternoon/early evening time frame.  There is a slight chance that some of these storms may reach severe criteria, but they should be weakening as they reach the New England States.

I expect the rain from these lines of storms to survive to bring some showers overnight to many areas of New England, especially Central and Northern New England.  This will moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere and will likely lead to another foggy morning tomorrow.  This will burn off as well and then it will be get warm and a bit sticky.  An approaching cold front will set off another round of showers and thunderstorms.  Again, some of these storms could reach severe criteria, particularly in Western New England.   This all should happen during the afternoon into early evening.  The showers and storms should move off shore overnight followed by cooler and drier air behind the front.

Friday will turn out to be OK.  We'll see a decent amount of sun, but also the chance of a few pop-up showers across the interior.  Nothing significant, but a few raindrop nonetheless.  Looking into the weekend, I'm happy to report that it appears that it will be mostly dry and seasonable.  A few showers across the interior are possible thanks to cooler air aloft and strong heating at the surface causing lift.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Another day of murkiness

Fog and drizzle has developed north of the warm front, doesn't look like we'll see that warmth starting today.

Today:  Areas of fog and drizzle, along with the chance of showers, highs in the low to mid 50s both north and south.

Tonight:  Cloudy with showers, lows in the mid and upper 40s both north and south.

Tomorrow:  Mostly cloudy with the chance of showers, highs in the low to mid 70s south, around 70 north.

Tomorrow night:  More showers and maybe a thunderstorms around, lows in the 50s south, near 50 north.

Thursday:  Cloudy with the chance of showers and thunderstorms, highs in the upper 60s both north and south.

Discussion: 

I was worried about today.  Yesterday when I was making the forecast I decided to go a bit more positive and pushed the warm front pretty far to the north.  I bought into what everyone else was saying when deep down I knew that I shouldn't have.  I'm kicking myself now.

As you saw when you woke up this morning, the fog and drizzle has set in and the push from the warm front is not going to be enough to move that heavy damp air out of the region during the day today.  As a result, we'll be stuck with a cool, damp, and dreary day.  Fortunately, this should, rather will, change tonight and early tomorrow.  As the low pressure system gets a bit closer, there will be more of a wind push on the south side of the front.  This will force the marine layer north and east and allow for warmer and "drier" air in.  We will still have the chance of showers and few thunderstorms, but just not the fog and mist.

The cold front associated with this storm system will push through New England during the day on Thursday.  Some of the latest model runs shows this front as being relatively weak with only a thin line of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms.  A bit too early to tell how strong this front will be.

As we head into the weekend, Friday looks like an OK day, maybe a few clouds and a stray shower around.  Saturday and Sunday should be pleasant as well, with near normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Pesky warm front

Hope everyone enjoyed yesterday.  I don't see a day anywhere near as nice as yesterday for at least a week.

Today:  Cloudy, maybe a few showers or patchy drizzle, highs in the mid and upper 50s south, warmer north due to lack of a breeze off the ocean, highs near 60.

Tonight:  Rain possible, especially north, lows near 50 south, around 40 north.

Tomorrow:  Mix of clouds and sun, slight chance of showers, highs around 70 south*, in the 50s elsewhere.  More on the * later.

Tomorrow night:  Mostly cloudy, showers possible, lows in the upper 40s and low 50s south, low 40s north.

Wednesday:  Mostly cloudy, showers possible, highs in the upper 60s to near 70 south, 60s north.

Discussion:

As mentioned in my last couple of updates we are going to be dealing with a slow moving warm front the next few days.  This is the reason for the cooler, dreary day we are currently having.  Over the next couple of days, this front will work its way north.  As it does so, it will be the focal point for showers and possibly a thunderstorm.

Today the front will be south of the region, bringing easterly winds to much of New England.  Northern sections won't suffer as much as there won't be as direct impact from the Atlantic.  We shouldn't be too wet during the day today as it's going to take a little while for some moisture to work into the area.  Rain will develop tonight however.

During the day on Tuesday the warm front should start move north.  The big question is how far it is going to make it.  Now to discuss the * above.  It looks like most of Southern New England will warm up tomorrow, but not all.  I think the warm front will make it to the MA/NH border and then dip down into MA toward Cape Ann.  Areas north of the front will stay cool, where areas south will be much warmer.

Tuesday night the warm front will continue push northward and by Wednesday it should be across far northern New England.  Temperatures should be mild, but we'll still have the chance for showers.  So overall, this week will be warm but a bit unsettled.  Eventually a cold front will move through the region with the chance of more rain and depending on the time of the day the front comes through, thunderstorms may also be possible.  Right now it looks like the front might pass through on Thursday afternoon.  Friday should be drier and a touch cooler.  Looking into the upcoming weekend, conditions look pleasant.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Warm week upcoming

Happy Easter Everyone!

Today:  Partly sunny, more clouds in the afternoon, highs upper 60s to near 70 south, around 60 north.

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy south with a few showers possible, partly cloudy north, lows in the upper 40s to near 50 south, low 30s north.

Tomorrow:  Cloudy with showers and drizzle south, sun and clouds north and west.  Highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s in Eastern MA and South central/eastern NH, upper 50s and lowers 60s elsewhere.

Tomorrow night:  Cloudy with showers possible, especially north, lows in the upper 40s south, upper 30s north.

Tuesday:  Lots of clouds, chance of showers, especially north, highs in the low to mid 60s south, around 60 north.

Discussion: 

A bit of a tricky forecast for the next few days.  It all stems from a warm front that will set up across New England starting tonight.  Before that happens however, we are going to have pretty nice day today.  We should have sunshine for a good part of the day until some clouds start to build in for southern areas in the afternoon.  Temperatures will also be much warmer today than what we had yesterday.  I'll be wearing shorts this afternoon!

So onto the tougher part of the forecast.  A warm front will start developing tonight to the south of New England.  As this organizes, rain showers will develop as will an easterly wind to the north of the front.  This is going to cause a marine layer to develop across eastern and southern sections.  Unfortunately this is going to drop temperatures back down to cooler readings for these areas.  Basically, east of the Worcester hills and Monadnocks will be stuck with cooler temperatures and possibly some drizzle and rain showers.  Outside of the area just mentioned, temperatures will be about 10 or so degrees warmer, still cloudy however with the chance of showers.

It looks like the warm front will lift north on Monday night or Tuesday morning.  This will provide a warm up for southern and eastern locations for Tuesday.  We still probably won't see too much sunshine and the chance of showers will still exist, but it will be warmer.  Once we get to Tuesday, it looks like the majority of the precipitation will be focused across Northern New England, along that warm front.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a few thunderstorms develop at times along this front.

Beyond Tuesday, we will still have to deal with occasional rain shower this week, but it looks like temperatures will remain mild into the day on Friday.  A cold front should pass through the region late in the week, probably on Friday.  Behind that front, temperatures will cool down a bit and right now next weekend doesn't show much promise....

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Half of a weekend

Pleasant but cool today, rain Saturday, "should" be OK on Sunday.

Today:  Plenty of sunshine, cool, highs in low to mid 50s north and south.

Tonight:  Clouds increase, lows in the mid and upper 30s south, mid 20 north.

Tomorrow:  Rain showers develop, slight chance of a rain/snow mix in Northern New England before changing to rain, highs near 50 south, upper 40s north.

Tomorrow night:  Rain showers taper off, partial clearing, lows in the upper 40s south, 30s north.

Sunday:  More clouds than sun, maybe a few showers along the South Coast, highs in the 60s south, upper 50s north.

Discussion:

We'll have a pleasant but cool day today.  Not as windy as yesterday either so it will probably feel a bit warmer than it did yesterday.  A low pressure will approach the region tonight, this will cause an increase in clouds overnight.  It looks like the rain will hold off until tomorrow morning after the sun comes up.  This will limit the threat of wintry precipitation.  It appears that if there is any rain/snow mix, it will be across Northern New England.  Even then I think temperatures will be warm enough to make this a strictly rain event.  At this time in year, it is very hard to have freezing rain because the temperature of the ground is pretty warm.

Rain will continue off and on through the day on Saturday, tapering off late in the afternoon or early evening.  Our skies will remain mostly cloudy through the night with a bit of clearing expected.  Sunday looks like it will turn out OK for the most part.  There will be some precipitation around, but most of it will be south of New England so if anyone is affected, it will be along the South Coast.  There should be a few breaks of sunshine, but it will stay generally cloudy on Sunday.  Temperatures should be warmer as well, despite the lack of sun.

The beginning of next week is a toss up at this point.  It's either going to be cool and damp, dry and mild or both in different locations.  There will be another warm front draped across New England and it's placement will heavily impact what we will see.  If the front moves north, it should be dry and mild.  If it drops south, it will be cool and damp.  It's all about wind direction.  If the front is south, we'll have an east wind and be impacted by a marine layer.  If the front is north, a west or southwest wind will be in place, which is drier and warmer.  I expect the front to waver back and forth a bit early next week, so conditions could change on a day by day basis or change from one extreme to another during one of the days.  That's is Spring in New England....

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Sunny finish to the week

Pleasant to finish this work week but then we'll deal with some rain over the upcoming weekend.

Today:  Sunny south, clouds and sun north with the chance of rain and snow showers north, breezy, highs in the 50s south, 40s north.

Tonight:  Any clouds depart, lows in the low to mid 30s south, 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Lots of sun, highs in the low 50s north and south.

Tomorrow night:  Increasing clouds, lows in the upper 30s to near 40 south, 20s north.

Saturday:  Rain develops from southwest to northeast, highs in the low 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.

Discussion: 

A small area of high pressure is generally in control of the weather here in New England today and tomorrow.  The only exception is a little leftover instability across Northern and Central New England.  This will kick off a few rain and snow showers, especially during the first half of the day.  Temperatures will be on the cool side for the next few days thanks to some colder air aloft.  So despite a good amount of sunshine, our potential highs won't be all that warm because of that cool air overhead.

As we head into Friday evening a storm system will be approaching New England.  This will result in increasing clouds on Friday night and then rain during the day on Saturday.  This storm system isn't as strong as the last few that have moved through.  We'll see some rain, but it will likely be less than half an inch and will be spread out over a 12 hour period.  The rain should taper off on Saturday night and then we'll have a 50/50 shot at a decent day on Sunday.  I don't think there will be much sun on Sunday, but it should be warmer.  The question is whether or not we'll have any rain or not.  There looks like there will be a few showers near New England on Sunday, but where they set up remains to be seen.

Until then, do what you can to enjoy the next two days and then hope that we can salvage at least half of the weekend.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Wet and more wet

Dealing with more rain today, that will be a common theme over the next week or so.

Today:  Occasional rain, thunderstorms also possible, highs in the upper 40s and into the 50s south, 40s north.

Tonight:  Rain comes to an end, possibly mixing with snow north, some clearing possible, lows around 40 south, around 30 north.

Tomorrow:  Partly sunny south, mostly cloudy with chance of rain and snow showers north, highs in the 50s south, upper 30s to near 40 north.

Tomorrow night:  Partly cloudy, lows in the 30s south, 20s north.

Friday:  Sunny, highs in the 50s both north and south.

Discussion:

The short range forecast doesn't look to terrible, but when I look at the outlook for the weekend next week, it's bleak.  We'll have a few more showers and maybe a few thunderstorms today.  A few storms already rolled through parts of Northern New England overnight.  This storm will continue to affect parts of northern New England into the day tomorrow, but conditions in southern sections will start to improve tonight.

Aside from some spotty rain and snow shower activity tomorrow in Northern New England, the next few days will be pleasant but a bit cool.  Our next storm system is set to arrive on Saturday with another round of rain that will pretty much ruin the first half of the weekend.  This will quickly depart on Saturday night, only to be replaced by another disturbance that will bring rain chances to Sunday as well.  We'll almost have the same exact set up coming up next week as we had at the beginning of this week.

Another cold/warm battle zone will set up across the region and will be the focal point for more unsettled weather to start off next week.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Monday, April 18, 2011

More rain on the way

We'll squeeze one nice day out today before a few days of unsettled weather.

Today:  Partly to mostly sunny today, highs in the upper 50s and low 60s south, in the upper 40s and low 50s north.

Tonight:  Increasing clouds, chance of rain showers south, snow showers north, lows in the upper 30s and low 40s south, near 30 north.

Tomorrow:  Cloudy, rain possible at times, especially in the afternoon, highs in the 50s south, near 50 north.  Best chance of rain will be in Southern New England.

Tomorrow night:  Showers possible, snow or mixed precipitation north, lows in the upper 30s and low 40s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.

Wednesday:  Rain chances continue, highs around 50 south, 40s north.

Discussion:

We'll manage a nice day today before a warm front extending eastward from a developing low pressure system in the Central US.  Temperatures will be mild and we'll see a decent amount of sunshine.  Tonight is when conditions will gradually start to deteriorate.  The warm front will start to press in from the west and this will bring clouds and rain chances.

Temperatures are going to be cold enough in spots across New England to provide some wintry precipitation during overnight hours with this storm.  I'm not expecting any significant accumulations with this storm, but more of an annoyance than anything Eventually this storm will pass off to our north and west on Wednesday evening.  So tonight through Thursday morning, we are looking at occasional rain chances here in New England.  I don't think we will have steady rain/snow/mix for more than an hour or two.  For the most part we'll be dealing with cloudy skies, cooler temperatures and periodic showers.

Once this storm clears, Thursday should bring improving weather and this should continue into Friday.  Looks like our next chance of rain will come on Saturday.

Sorry for the quick one today, preoccupied by a "can't sit still" toddler.  Thanks for reading!

-Jon K

Sunday, April 17, 2011

A bit unsettled this week

After some heavy rain and wind last night, our weather will stay a bit unsettled through the upcoming week.

Today:   Becoming partly sunny, highs near 60 south, upper 40s to near 50 north.

Tonight:  Partly cloudy, lows in the upper 30s to near 40 south, upper 20s to near 30 north.

Tomorrow:  Mostly cloudy, slight chance of an afternoon shower, highs near 60 south, near 50 north.

Tomorrow night:  Lots of clouds, chance of a few showers, snow showers north of Concord, NH, lows in the upper 30s to near 40 south, upper 20s to near 30 north.

Tuesday:  Occasional sun, maybe a passing shower, highs in the mid 50s south, upper 40s north.

Discussion:

A strong cold front moved through New England overnight last night.  This brought heavy rain, wind and a few thunderstorms to the region.  Even though this was a cold front, temperatures won't drop off today, they will actually be warmer.  For one, we'll have sunshine today and secondly, the wind direction makes a difference as well.  We had an easterly component to our wind yesterday, bringing cooler air in off the ocean.  Today we'll have a westerly wind, this will bring air down from the mountains to our the west.  When air descends in height, it gets compressed by increased pressure and this is a warming mechanism.

As we head into the upcoming week, we'll be in area of battle between warm and cold air.  There will essentially be a warm front draped over New England for much of the week.  This warm front is extending eastward from a low pressure system that will gradually develop in the Central United States the next few days.  Our best chance of precipitation will be on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the low pressure system moves through the region.  It looks like the majority of the precipitation will be north of New England at this point.

So overall, conditions won't be wet all the time, but the instability will be there at times.  Spotty showers aren't out of the question.  This storm is probably going to kick off more severe weather across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, but not as severe as what was seen on Friday and Saturday.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Friday, April 15, 2011

Weekend outlook

High pressure in control today, but a cold front will mess up part of our weekend.

Today:  Lots of sunshine, a bit cool, highs in the mid and upper 40s south, low 40s north.

Tonight:  Clear, chilly, lows near 30 south, teens and 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Some sun in the morning then increasing clouds, possibly some rain in western sections late in the afternoon, highs in the mid and upper 40s south, low to mid 40s north.

Tomorrow night:  Periods of rain, heavy at times with thunderstorms possible, temperatures holding steady in the 40s south, dropping into the upper 30s north.

Sunday:  Any rain tapers off in the morning, some sun develops, highs in the low 60s south, 50s north.

Discussion:

Conditions will remain quiet here in New England through the majority of the day tomorrow.  High pressure is in control bringing lots of sun, but cooler temperatures.  As we head into the day tomorrow, high pressure will be moving off shore in response to an advancing low pressure system.  This low will swing a cold front through the region on Saturday night.  There is quite a bit of energy associated with this storm system, which means there is going to be a lot of precipitation.

We'll see a 4 to 6 hour period of steady moderate rain with heavier downpours.  I think there might be a few embedded thunderstorms as well, particularly across Southern New England.  Fortunately, this storm is moving quickly and we'll be done with rain early on Sunday morning.  Sunday should turn out to be a pleasant day with mild temperatures a good amount of sun, once the clouds clear.

Looking into next week it appears that we will be in and out of unsettled weather.  We will be under a transition zone between warm and cold air.  This looks like it will waver back and forth, north to south across New England for at least the first half of next week.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Quiet through Saturday

High pressure is in position for next couple of days then a quick shot of rain overnight on Saturday.

Today:  Plenty of sunshine, highs in the low 60s south, 50s north.

Tonight:  Clear, lows in the 30s south, teens and 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Mainly sunny, a bit cooler, highs 45-50 south, low 40s north.

Tomorrow night:  A few clouds late, lows in the 30s south, teens north.

Saturday:  Some early sunshine, then increasing clouds, rain should hold off until the evening or overnight hours, highs in the mid and upper 40s for both north and south.

Discussion:

We have high pressure in control and this will remain the case into the day on Saturday.  Not too much to be concerned with until then.  Today will be the nicest of the next 3 with a good amount of sun and mild temperatures.  Cooler air will start to build in tonight and this will hold temperatures down for Friday and Saturday.  Also, I expect a sea breeze to develop tomorrow, which will keep coastal locations even cooler.

Our next unsettled weather maker will arrive late in the day on Saturday.  A low pressure system will race through the Great Lakes, passing to the north and west of New England.  This should bring a round of moderate to possibly heavy rain on Saturday night into early Sunday.  There maybe a few thunderstorms embedded in the heavier downpours.  Fortunately it looks like this system is moving pretty quickly, so we might get some sun before the day is done on Sunday.

Looking out to next week, I'm not encouraged.  It looks damp and cool, but that is usually what we have to deal with here in New England.  Time will tell.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Rainy

A low pressure system moving through New England will bring rain today, next storm on Sunday.

Today:  Periods of rain, especially before 3 PM, temperatures holding steady in the 40s for both north and south.

Tonight:  Leftover showers come to an end, partial clearing, lows near 40 south, 30s north.

Tomorrow:  Partly to mostly sunny, highs in the mid and upper 50s south, mid 50s north.

Tomorrow night:  Partly cloudy, lows in the mid and upper 30s south, near 20 north.

Friday:  Mostly sunny, a bit cooler, highs near 50 south, 40s north.

Discussion:

A low pressure system is sitting just to the west of New England this morning.  This will gradually pass to west and north of the region through the day today.  The bulk of the precipitation should exist in New England, especially Southern New England during the first half of the day.  By the time we reach the afternoon hours, most of the rain will have moved off shore and out to sea.  There already have been a few thunderstorms across Southern New England and that threat will continue until around noon.  After the steady rain moves away, we'll be left with showers and some isolated heavy downpours.  By tonight the low will be sitting to the north of the region and dry air will start to wrap in behind the storm.  This will dry up the remaining precipitation and lead to a nicer day tomorrow.

High pressure will build in behind the departing storm system on Thursday.  We should see a decent amount of sunshine and above normal temperatures.  Conditions will remain pleasant into the start of the upcoming weekend as well as high pressure will hold on into the first half of Saturday.  Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday as colder air sinks in from Canada.  This combined with a lack of a dominate wind direction will result in sea breezes as well.  Saturday should be a bit warmer than Friday thanks to a southwesterly wind.  There will also be a bit more cloudiness in response to a large low pressure system that will arrive Saturday night.

This low will bring a damp finish to our weekend with what looks like potentially heavy rain.  Timing of this could change, but right now I'm fairly confident we can salvage at least half of the upcoming weekend.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Back to reality

After a nearly perfect weekend, we are heading back to a more New England like spring.

Today:  Some sun early then increasing clouds, highs in the low to mid 60s south, 50s north.

Tonight:  Occasional rain, especially south, lows near 40 south, near 30 north.

Tomorrow:  Periods of rain, heavy at times, temperatures remaining nearly steady south, near 40, climbing into the mid 30s north.

Tomorrow night:  Rain comes to an end, partial clearing, temperatures remain steady overnight.

Thursday:  Partly sunny, warmer, highs in the mid and upper 50s south, low to mid 50s north.

Discussion:

Well, I hope everyone enjoyed the weather we had over the weekend and yesterday.  Conditions will be going downhill today and tonight leading to a raw, rainy day tomorrow.  We should stay mostly dry today thanks to a large pool of dry air overhead.  This will eat up any precipitation that tries to move into New England today.  As the storm system gets closer and more moisture moves in aloft, it will start precipitating here in New England.  I think that areas north of Concord, NH will stay dry until the daylight hours tomorrow, putting Southern New England under the gun for precipitation tonight.  I won't rule out a few rumbles of thunder, especially south of the Mass. Pike overnight.  The heaviest of the rain should fall during the day tomorrow and looks to be in Southern New England.  Our winds will contain an easterly component, so it will be a raw day, temperatures holding steady throughout the day for the most part.

As the storm pulls away on Wednesday night and the skies start to clear, it might actually warm up a few degrees overnight.  Once the easterly wind settles down, the actually atmosphere will allow for warmer temperatures to develop.  This will lead to a pleasant day on Thursday with a decent amount of sunshine and mild temps.  Beyond Thursday, it looks like our weather will stay quiet until late Saturday or Saturday night when another low pressure system arrives.  Sunday looks to be a washout at this point, so we might be able to salvage about half of a weekend.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Beautiful weekend

Nothing to worry about the next 3 days, plenty of sunshine and warming temperatures.

Today:  Partly to mostly sunny, highs 50-55 south, upper 40s north.

Tonight:  Partly cloudy, lows in the 30s south, teens and 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Partly sunny, highs in the low 60s south, mid 50s north.

Tomorrow night:  Partly cloudy, lows in the low 40 south, near 30 north.

Sunday:  Occassional sun, highs near 60 south, mid 50s north.

Discussion:

A low pressure system will be sliding south of New England during the day today.  This will provide a few clouds to the region today, especially across Southern New England.  Aside from some cloudiness this weekend, conditions will be great.  Temperatures will be above normal all weekend long.

Much of this is do to high pressure in control over New England.  Over the weekend, this low pressure system will gradually slide offshore.  This will turn our winds around to a southwesterly direction and will pump our daytime highs into the 50s and 60s.  Eventually our daytime highs will reach the 70s in southern areas, this will happen on Monday.  Our warmest day will come just ahead of a cold front that will arrive Monday night or Tuesday.  There will be precipitation chances from Sunday night through Tuesday.  The chances won't be all that high over this period, but possible nonetheless.

Not much else to talk about right now, enjoy the weekend!

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Good news everyone!

Quiet weather for the next few days with mild temperatures for the weekend!

Today:  Mostly sunny, highs in the upper 40s and low 50s south, upper 40s north.

Tonight:  Clear, cool, lows 30-35 south, teens north.

Tomorrow:  Partly to mostly sunny, more cloudiness across Southern New England, highs 50-55 south, 45-50 north.

Tomorrow night:  Partly cloudy, lows in the mid 30s south, 20s north.

Saturday:  Partly sunny, mild, highs near 60 south, 50s north.

Discussion:

Even though our weather is going to stay quiet here in New England, doesn't mean our spring weather has quieted down completely.  We are going to experience a close miss tomorrow with a storm system diving just south of New England.  For today however, high pressure is in control.  I expect temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly due to the lack of defined wind field.  This will allow a sea breeze to set up that should push pretty far inland.  This high pressure system that is in control will help to force an approach low pressure system to our south tomorrow, very similar to the low that passed to our south last night.

After the disturbance passes through tomorrow, the high pressure system will shift off shore and this will turn our winds around to a southwesterly direction.  With that, our warm up will commence.  Saturday and Sunday look to be beautiful days here in New England with a good deal of sunshine and above normal temperatures.  60s are a good bet for southern areas on Saturday and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few 70s on Sunday.  It'll be a bit cooler across Northern New England mainly due to the lingering snow pack.

This warm up comes with a downside however.  Early next week will we have some rain to deal with across New England, although I don't see a major cool down after the passage of this storm.  Actually it looks like our temperatures will be at or above normal for the next week and a half!

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Active in the east, but quiet here

We are going to luck out here over the next few days, despite an active weather pattern, conditions in New England should be mainly dry.

Today:  Sunny this morning then some clouds in the afternoon, especially south, highs 50-55 south, in the low 40s north.

Tonight:  Chance of a few showers south, otherwise partly cloudy, lows in low 30s south, teens north.

Tomorrow:  Partly to mostly sunny, highs in the upper 40s south, low 40s north.

Tomorrow night:  Mainly clear, lows 30-35 south, lows in the low 20s.

Friday:  Mix of clouds and sun, highs near 50 south, upper 40s north.

Discussion:

So we're going to experience a few close calls over the next few days, but most of the region will be spared.  There is a weak low pressure system racing through the Great Lakes this morning.  Looking at the radar and the current motion of the system, it looks like this will pass to the south of New England.  Locations along the south coast may deal with some rain drops this evening into the early overnight, but nothing substantial.

Tomorrow should be a pleasant day, though a few degrees cooler.  The lack of a dominant westerly wind will allow for a seabreeze to develop that will keep the majority of New England a bit on the cool side.  This will develop because high pressure is taking hold of the region and our winds will be light.  This high pressure system will come in handy on Friday. 
As I have mentioned over the last couple of days, I was concerned about a storm on Friday.  The development of this high pressure system is going to keep this at bay now.  It will be forced south of New England and our weather again, aside from some clouds, will be quiet.

As we look into the weekend, I'm shading toward the optimistic right now.  Saturday looks like there won't be any problems, but the question mark is on Sunday.  Regardless, Sunday is going to the warmer of the two days, but it could also come with some rain.  For now, I'm not going to mention rain as I think the storm will hold off until Monday morning, or pass to our north.  One model tries to bring precipitation in for Sunday afternoon, but this model hasn't been all that reliable recently.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Storminess continues

Another round of rain on it's way for today, then two more chances at precipitation before we reach the weekend.

Today:  Showers likely, maybe a thunderstorm or two, windy, daytime highs will happen before noon then cooling slightly through the day, 50s south, 40s north.

Tonight:  Any leftover showers end, maybe with some snow mixing in north, lows near 30 south, near 20 north.

Tomorrow:  Partly sunny, more cloudiness during the afternoon hours, breezy,  highs in the mid 50s south, low to mid 40s north.

Tomorrow night:  Chance of a few showers before midnight, otherwise partly cloudy, lows in the low to mid 30s south, near 20 north.

Thursday:  Partly sunny, highs near 50 south, mid 40s north.

Discussion:

It appears that our weather is going to stay active over the next 7 days or so.  Whether or not we will be under the gun of each disturbance that passes through remains the question.  For today, there is a cold front on our doorstep.  This will blast through New England by the early afternoon bringing rain, wind and a maybe a few thunderstorms across Southern New England.  Temperatures are all over the place this morning.  A few spots that were socked in with fog did not have their temperatures warm up overnight.  There are 15 degree temperature differences over short distances in Southern New England because of this.

Once the fog clears and the fronts gets a little closer, the spots that didn't warm overnight should shoot up a few degrees.  Once the front passes through this afternoon, temperatures will start to drop off.  The precipitation should continue into the early evening and by this time, some places may be cool enough for a few snowflakes to mix in.  I expect this to mainly happen in Northern New England.

Tomorrow should generally be pleasant, mild temperatures and decent sunshine.  However, a fast moving disturbance may bring scattered showers during the evening hours.  Beyond Wednesday evening, the forecast models begin to deviate with the path and intensity of the next few events.  Our next chance of precipitation will come either on Friday or Saturday, depending on what model you want to believe.  I'm believe the model that brings the storm in on Friday at this point, since it has been the most consistent.  It looks as if the intensity of this storm has decreased so I don't expect much.  As of now, it only looks to impact Southern New England.  If this trend continues, this storm may pass just to the south of New England.

Once the storm departs on Saturday morning, our weather should be quite nice for the remainder of the weekend.  Next storm beyond that would be early next week.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Monday, April 4, 2011

Active pattern continues

Warm front, cold front tomorrow, followed by another disturbance midweek.

Rest of today:  On and off showers, rain south, rain and snow north.  Most of the precip will be across Northern New England, highs in the mid 40s south, 35-40 north.

Tonight:  Showers, especially toward morning, temperatures remaining steady or warming a bit overnight.

Tomorrow:  Occasional rain, heavy at times, possibly ending with some snow mixing in late in the afternoon, breezy, highs 50-55 south, 45-50 north.  Daytime highs will be in the morning, getting a bit cooler during the day.

Tomorrow night:  Any rain/snow mix ending, breezy, lows 30-35 south, in the 20s north.

Wednesday:  Partly sunny, chance of afternoon rain showers, breezy, highs near 50 south, low 40s north.

Discussion: 

A strong low pressure system is moving through the Great Lakes today.  This is pushing a warm front through New England today and tonight.  This warm front is responsible for the precipitation we saw today and will continue to see.  Most of this activity will be in Northern New England this afternoon.  As the warm front lifts into Southern Canada tonight, we should have a lull in the precipitation.  I don't expect to see much rain after 8 PM this evening, until 5 AM tomorrow morning.  Around this time, the cold front will be close enough to start setting off more rain showers.

The cold front should move through New England during the middle of the day.  Rain at times is expected and maybe an isolated rumble of thunder.  Since the front is moving through early in the day, our daytime highs will likely happen before noon.  After that, northwesterly winds will start pushing colder air in.  This may happen fast enough that the rain may end with some snow mixing in late afternoon/early evening.  No accumulation expected.

By tomorrow night the precipitation will have moved off shore and we will just be left with windy conditions.  The breezy weather will continue into Wednesday and we will see a weak disturbance race into the region.  This should arrive in the afternoon and temperatures should be warm enough for any precipitation to fall as rain.  Not a strong system, but a few scattered rain showers are expected.

Beyond Wednesday, Thursday should be pleasant and along with most of Friday.  Another storm system will be approaching on Friday morning.  So we won't see much sunshine.  This system could bring a bit of mixed precipitation for a time, but it looks like warm air will win out in the end and bring mainly rain to New England.  More to come on this storm.

Sorry for the lateness today, but thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Another storm on the way

A large low pressure system will impact our weather on Monday and Tuesday.

Today:  Plenty of sunshine, highs in the low 50s south, low 40s north.

Tonight:  Increasing clouds, a rain and snow mix develops south, mostly all snow across northern New England, no accumulation expected, lows 30-35 south, mid 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Rain/snow changes to all rain across Southern and Central New England by midday, snow mixes with rain late in the afternoon in Northern New England, 2-4 inches possible in Northern New England, highs in the mid 40s south, upper 30s north.

Tomorrow night:  Rain showers at times, mixing with sleet in Northern New England, lows in the lower 40s south, mid 30s north, temperatures may warm a bit overnight.

Tuesday:  Occassional rain shower, possibly heavy at times, highs in the low to mid 50s south, low to mid 40s north.

Discussion: 
We'll enjoy one more pleasant day today, better than yesterday.  By that I mean we shouldn't see as much cloudiness as we saw yesterday, nor the random downpours that popped up yesterday afternoon.  We should turn our attention westward, at a large low pressure system that is already affecting the Central United States.  This storm contains a lot of energy.  It is tapping into warm air in the southern US and cold air in Canada to create a very strong cold front.  This cold front will be responsible for severe thunderstorms tomorrow across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

Our conditions will be impacted by the warm front associated with the large low pressure system.  This front will arrive overnight tonight and push warm air in aloft.  This is called over-running and generates lift in the atmosphere.  This lift with generate precipitation.  The rain will start from southwest and move northeastward overnight.  Some spots will be cold enough to have a rain and snow mix across Southern New England, but this won't last long and no accumulation is expected.  Gradually temperatures will warm up enough that nearly all of New England will have strictly rain, save for higher elevations of Northern New England.  This all happens during the day on Monday.  We'll probably have a lull in the precipitation on Monday night, though showers can't be ruled out.  This will be the time where we have already had the warm front pass through and we are just waiting for the cold front to arrive.

The timing of the cold front is still up in the air.  A couple of models bring it through midday on Tuesday, other bring it through during the afternoon.  Either way, we are looking at another round of precipitation on Tuesday, some of which could be heavy at times.  Still not ruling out the possibility of a few embedded thunderstorms as the cold front moves through on Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday, we could see a mixed precipitation event on Wednesday, should happen during the daylight hours and there will be limited moisture so no accumulation is expected.  Aside from that, temperatures should be near normal for this time of year, which is right around 50 for Southern areas and near 40 for northern.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Friday, April 1, 2011

Forecast time!

Ok, I've put this storm behind me, now it's time to look forward to warm, yet still stormy weather.

Today:  On and off rain and snow showers, limited additional accumulations to the north, highs in the upper 30s and low 40s south, 30s north.

Tonight:  Any precipitation ends, becoming partly cloudy, lows in the low 30s south, 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Partly sunny, warmer, highs near 50 south, 40s north.

Tomorrow night:  Partly cloudy, lows in the 30s south, 20s north.

Sunday:  Mostly sunny, pleasant, highs near 50 south, 40-45 north.

Discussion:

For the rest of the day, the biggest thing we will have to worry about is snow falling off the trees and power lines.  Additional accumulations will be light as temperartures are generally above freezing in most locations.  Tonight, be on the alert for slippery spots on untreated surfaces, I would imagine there is going to be some black ice developing.

High pressure will start building in tonight and this will make for a beautiful weekend.  All the snow across Southern New England should be gone by Sunday afternoon, lingering a bit longer in Central and Northern New England.  Temperatures will be a bit above normal under a good amount of sunshine.

Our next system will arrive Monday night into Tuesday.  A very strong low pressure system will make it's way across the United States.  I think we will see a major severe weather outbreak across the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys on Monday afternoon into Monday night.  Probably a significant tornado outbreak.

Southerly winds will pick up on Monday, pushing our temperatures up as a warm front swings through.  Along with the warm front we will have some rain, maybe a few snowflakes across the higher elevations of Northern New England.  Generally a rain event however.  This storm will swing a strong cold front through the region on Tuesday afternoon.  Not sure how much energy will be left with this front, but more showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out.  Conditions after the early week storm will quiet down for a few days with near normal temperatures.  Then it looks like a late week, early weekend storm of yet undetermined precipitation type and magnitude.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Almost done

Our messy weather is gradually winding down here in New England.  Northern areas will still see periods of snow for the next 4-6 hours.  Accumulations are falling within my forecast range so far, though not seeing to many reports of more than 8 inches.  The rain/snow line was a bit further to the south than I expected, though there wasn't much accumulation inside I-95.  There was actually a lot more snow that fell than is represented on the ground.  There was quite a bit of melting and compacting of the snow.

There will still be on and off rain and snow showers into the afternoon hours today, though additional accumulations will be hard to come by as temperatures will be warming up slightly throughout the day.

I'll have a full forecast update later today.



A view looking down our street in Hudson, NH.  Barely enough room for one car to make it between the trees bent over by the snow.

-Jon K.