Irene will be making landfall between 7 and 8 AM this morning near Beaufort, NC. Irene is a category 1 with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. There have been some wind gusts at Cape Hatteras of 82 mph.
Irene is 100% heading this way and it looks like it is going to make a second landfall just to the east of NYC on Eastern LI, probably near JFK airport. As it moves north, it will batter the coast of Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. There are already reports of damaged piers along the New Jersey shore. Look for Irene to slowly weaken through the day today and tonight, but will likely be a weak Category 1 or strong Tropical Storm when it makes it's second landfall in the Northeast.
On it's current track, the majority of New England will be on the East side of the storm. This will make wind and the risk of tornadoes the greatest threat. The risk of tornadoes will begin tonight and continue into midday tomorrow. This typically happens on the right front quadrant of a hurricane once it interacts with land. Right now Eastern NC and Virginia are experiencing this possibility.
Needless to say, we will be impacted by this storm, just not the extreme extent it was hyped to be. Regardless, there will be some damage, there will be power outages and there very well may be injuries and God for bid, loss of life here in New England. Last minute preparations should be made this morning and if you are planning on hunkering down somewhere other than your home, you probably want to do that tonight. Getting to your destination Sunday morning may be too late.
Please let me know if you have any questions.
You can follow me throughout the day on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/Jontheweatherman
or on twitter @jpkomarek.
I will do my best to keep you updated with the latest information and interesting observations of Irene.
Please be safe and thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Friday, August 26, 2011
Friday's Irene update
Nothing is set in stone....
Irene's exact track still remains a mystery and right now just about every meteorologist is relying on "trends" in the forecast models. So what does this mean? It means that hurricanes are one of the hardest, if not the hardest weather phenomena to predict. Computer models have very little data to start with over the oceans, not nearly as much as they have over land. Over land, there are more numerous surface observations, along with weather balloons that give readings far up into the atmosphere. Upper atmospheric observations essentially don't exist over the open water. I believe the computer models are able to use data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft. However, this is only a small picture of inside the storm, not the conditions surrounding the system.
Looking at what is happening this morning, Irene is moving due north and the outer rain bands are getting very close to the coast of North and South Carolina. The official forecast track as of 8 AM bring Irene over the Outer Banks on Saturday morning. There is no guarantee that Irene will even make landfall there, the eye could stay offshore complete. In fact some of the early morning runs are hinting at that.
If Irene does in fact stay off shore of the Carolinas, that is very very good news for us here in New England. The reason is that if it misses the Outer Banks, it will have already started it's turn toward the northeast and that will put it on a trajectory to miss New England, probably going over Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.
Regardless, everyone in New England should be prepared. A 3 day supply of food and water is a good start. The benefit of weather technology is that we know that Irene will be close and the utility companies are preparing, as are local officials.
I'll try to provide another update later today as I expect the track to shift a bit further to the east by this afternoon.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Irene's exact track still remains a mystery and right now just about every meteorologist is relying on "trends" in the forecast models. So what does this mean? It means that hurricanes are one of the hardest, if not the hardest weather phenomena to predict. Computer models have very little data to start with over the oceans, not nearly as much as they have over land. Over land, there are more numerous surface observations, along with weather balloons that give readings far up into the atmosphere. Upper atmospheric observations essentially don't exist over the open water. I believe the computer models are able to use data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft. However, this is only a small picture of inside the storm, not the conditions surrounding the system.
Looking at what is happening this morning, Irene is moving due north and the outer rain bands are getting very close to the coast of North and South Carolina. The official forecast track as of 8 AM bring Irene over the Outer Banks on Saturday morning. There is no guarantee that Irene will even make landfall there, the eye could stay offshore complete. In fact some of the early morning runs are hinting at that.
If Irene does in fact stay off shore of the Carolinas, that is very very good news for us here in New England. The reason is that if it misses the Outer Banks, it will have already started it's turn toward the northeast and that will put it on a trajectory to miss New England, probably going over Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.
Regardless, everyone in New England should be prepared. A 3 day supply of food and water is a good start. The benefit of weather technology is that we know that Irene will be close and the utility companies are preparing, as are local officials.
I'll try to provide another update later today as I expect the track to shift a bit further to the east by this afternoon.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Here comes Irene
I took some time off this summer, let myself refuel and refresh. I need to come out of hibernation however as Irene draws closer to the East Coast.
My initial gut feeling about this storm, essentially since it formed last week, was that it really wasn't going to be a threat to the United States. And for quite sometime, my gut was dead on. The first few forecasts had Irene heading for Miami. Then over the next 5 days, the forecast changed from Miami to.....Rhode Island. That's quite a spread and what can happen if you fall in the love with the computer guidance models too much.
However, over the last 24 hours, it seems we are finally getting a "clearer" picture of what will eventually happen. There is a still a chance that Irene could stay completely off shore and not technically make landfall on the US mainland. The chances of it staying off shore now are diminishing though. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Irene across the outer banks as a major hurricane(Category 3 or 4) and then it will continue up the coast, weakening as it moves north. The weakening will occur as it interacts with drier air over the US and the cooler ocean waters north of coast of the Carolinas. Irene is then forecast to cross Long Island sometime Saturday night or Sunday morning and then will continue into New England.
So you are probably asking, what does this mean for New England. Well, unless you live in Southern CT, RI or Southeast MA, probably not all that much. The biggest threat for the interior of New England will be flooding and the possibility of some isolated, weak tornadoes. Rainfall amounts of 5+ inches are possible which means, swollen streams and rivers and numerous flooded basements. Once you get about 10 miles inland, I don't believe wind will be a major factor. There probably will be some trees and limbs down, but I don't expect widespread problems further away from the coast.
Now if you do live on Long Island, Southern CT, RI or in Southeast MA; wind and storm surge are going to be a problem. There is going to be a lot of water being pushed northward ahead of Irene. Depending on when high tide is this weekend, which will be between 7 and 9 AM along the South Coast of New England, water levels could be very high. Unfortunately, the current timing of when Irene arrives coincides pretty closely with the rising tide. Low lying areas along the South Coast could be inundated with storm surge. As for the wind threat, we are probably looking at some gusts above hurricane strength for the Eastern half of Long Island and then into Southern CT, RI and southeast MA with most of the sustained winds at 65 mph or less. Further inland in Southern New England, wind speeds will likely stay below 45 mph with a few gusts north of 50 mph. Generally no worse than strong Nor'easter.
The biggest question is where the heaviest rain will fall. The cold front that is expected to move through New England today is forecast to stall across the region. (By the way, there is the threat of some strong storms this afternoon) Irene will use this as a path to slide into the region. Where this front sets up shop will likely be the focal point for a conveyor belt of torrential rain. My best guess at this time is that Central MA northward into NH and VT, right along the border is where the worst of the rain will fall. Still 4 days away, so much could change, as I said earlier, Irene could still miss completely and this is all for naught.
Please feel free to ask any questions you might have. Related to Irene or just hurricane in general.
Thanks for reading and I'll do my best to keep this updated over the next few days.
-Jon K.
My initial gut feeling about this storm, essentially since it formed last week, was that it really wasn't going to be a threat to the United States. And for quite sometime, my gut was dead on. The first few forecasts had Irene heading for Miami. Then over the next 5 days, the forecast changed from Miami to.....Rhode Island. That's quite a spread and what can happen if you fall in the love with the computer guidance models too much.
However, over the last 24 hours, it seems we are finally getting a "clearer" picture of what will eventually happen. There is a still a chance that Irene could stay completely off shore and not technically make landfall on the US mainland. The chances of it staying off shore now are diminishing though. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Irene across the outer banks as a major hurricane(Category 3 or 4) and then it will continue up the coast, weakening as it moves north. The weakening will occur as it interacts with drier air over the US and the cooler ocean waters north of coast of the Carolinas. Irene is then forecast to cross Long Island sometime Saturday night or Sunday morning and then will continue into New England.
So you are probably asking, what does this mean for New England. Well, unless you live in Southern CT, RI or Southeast MA, probably not all that much. The biggest threat for the interior of New England will be flooding and the possibility of some isolated, weak tornadoes. Rainfall amounts of 5+ inches are possible which means, swollen streams and rivers and numerous flooded basements. Once you get about 10 miles inland, I don't believe wind will be a major factor. There probably will be some trees and limbs down, but I don't expect widespread problems further away from the coast.
Now if you do live on Long Island, Southern CT, RI or in Southeast MA; wind and storm surge are going to be a problem. There is going to be a lot of water being pushed northward ahead of Irene. Depending on when high tide is this weekend, which will be between 7 and 9 AM along the South Coast of New England, water levels could be very high. Unfortunately, the current timing of when Irene arrives coincides pretty closely with the rising tide. Low lying areas along the South Coast could be inundated with storm surge. As for the wind threat, we are probably looking at some gusts above hurricane strength for the Eastern half of Long Island and then into Southern CT, RI and southeast MA with most of the sustained winds at 65 mph or less. Further inland in Southern New England, wind speeds will likely stay below 45 mph with a few gusts north of 50 mph. Generally no worse than strong Nor'easter.
The biggest question is where the heaviest rain will fall. The cold front that is expected to move through New England today is forecast to stall across the region. (By the way, there is the threat of some strong storms this afternoon) Irene will use this as a path to slide into the region. Where this front sets up shop will likely be the focal point for a conveyor belt of torrential rain. My best guess at this time is that Central MA northward into NH and VT, right along the border is where the worst of the rain will fall. Still 4 days away, so much could change, as I said earlier, Irene could still miss completely and this is all for naught.
Please feel free to ask any questions you might have. Related to Irene or just hurricane in general.
Thanks for reading and I'll do my best to keep this updated over the next few days.
-Jon K.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)