I'm starting to wonder if Mother Nature is playing a trick on us. Well, not a full fledged trick, but a small one. Over the last few days the models have been depicting a well organized, strong storm. Today's model runs are TOTALLY different. All I'm seeing now is a disorganized, gradually strengthening storm.
I don't think I'm going to change my forecast totals, as the liquid output is still pretty high, generally between .75" and 2". However, since this is disorganized, the precipitation will arrive a little earlier than I expected and getting heavier sooner as well.
The bulk of the precipitation now looks like it will fall overnight tonight, tapering off midday as opposed to late afternoon. Look for some rain and snow starting in Southern New England by 7 or 8 PM tonight, if not sooner. By midnight tonight, I think most areas of New England will be in on the precipitation.
This is going to make for a messy commute tomorrow morning, so keep that in mind.
I'll update again later if needed.
-Jon K.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Spring snow
Unfortunately I have nothing but more snow to talk about today, just in the short term however, looks warmer next week.
Winter Storm Warnings in effect for NH, VT and Central MA.
Today: Mostly cloudy, highs in the mid to upper 40s south, near 40 north.
Tonight: Cloudy, rain and snow develops south, all snow north and west of a Nashua to Worcester line. Amounts will be pretty widespread overnight, 2-4 south, 3-6 inches north. Lows in the low to mid 30s south, mid 20s north.
Tomorrow: Rain far south, rain/snow mix in Central New England, all snow north, changing to all snow for everyone in the afternoon. Total accumulations of 6-12 inches for much of Central and Northern New England, 2-5 in a thin band in Southern New England, see map. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s(coast) south, mid 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Snow tapers off, little to no additional accumulation, lows 30-35 south, mid 20s north.
Saturday: Partly sunny, a much better day, highs in the 40s south, near 40 north.
Discussion:
Tough forecast, but I'm feeling pretty confident. Conditions will remain quiet but generally overcast during the day today. The low pressure system that is going to affect the region really hasn't developed yet across the Southeastern United States. It is starting to however and it will race northward through the day today. I expect to see the precipitation start late this evening, shortly after the sun sets across Southern New England. Rain for the south coast, then transitioning to snow as you get into Central MA and Southern NH. Accumulations will be on the lighter side overnight as the best energy with this storm won't arrive until tomorrow morning. Regardless, its going to be a sloppy commute outside of I-495 tomorrow morning.
As the center of the low pressure system gets closer tomorrow morning the precipitation will pick up in intensity. This is going to hold the rain snow line steady across Northeastern MA back to Central MA. Points to the north and west of here will stay all snow. Temperatures are going to be near or above freezing for the duration of this storm so the snow is going to be wet and heavy. This will keep amounts down, but make it nearly impossible to move by shovel or snowblower. Tomorrow afternoon the precipitation will start to wind down, but as this happens cold air will start to move in aloft and this should change any rain over to snow by the late afternoon, this includes the Boston area. However, no accumulation is expected. Here is the map I promised.
Now, my skills in Paint aren't that great, so I was liberal with the 6-12 inches. Higher elevations are going to have the best chance to see 12 inches. Locations like Nashua and Manchester would probably be better represented with a 6-9 inch total, but it would have taken me all day to try to depict that! Either way, this is a plow-able event that is going to be a pain in the neck and back.
Power outages are expected tomorrow when you combine the heavy snow and the wind we will see. Some trees may come down as the top layer of the soil has thawed, so shallow rooted trees are going to be susceptible to be blown over.
The good news is that this weekend temperatures are going to be at normal levels, so the majority of snow we see in the next 36 hours will mostly be gone by Sunday afternoon. Further out into next week, it looks like the warm up will progress further to go along with a rain event toward the middle of next week.
Post any questions below if you are looking amounts in specific locations and I'll answer as quickly as I can.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Winter Storm Warnings in effect for NH, VT and Central MA.
Today: Mostly cloudy, highs in the mid to upper 40s south, near 40 north.
Tonight: Cloudy, rain and snow develops south, all snow north and west of a Nashua to Worcester line. Amounts will be pretty widespread overnight, 2-4 south, 3-6 inches north. Lows in the low to mid 30s south, mid 20s north.
Tomorrow: Rain far south, rain/snow mix in Central New England, all snow north, changing to all snow for everyone in the afternoon. Total accumulations of 6-12 inches for much of Central and Northern New England, 2-5 in a thin band in Southern New England, see map. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s(coast) south, mid 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Snow tapers off, little to no additional accumulation, lows 30-35 south, mid 20s north.
Saturday: Partly sunny, a much better day, highs in the 40s south, near 40 north.
Discussion:
Tough forecast, but I'm feeling pretty confident. Conditions will remain quiet but generally overcast during the day today. The low pressure system that is going to affect the region really hasn't developed yet across the Southeastern United States. It is starting to however and it will race northward through the day today. I expect to see the precipitation start late this evening, shortly after the sun sets across Southern New England. Rain for the south coast, then transitioning to snow as you get into Central MA and Southern NH. Accumulations will be on the lighter side overnight as the best energy with this storm won't arrive until tomorrow morning. Regardless, its going to be a sloppy commute outside of I-495 tomorrow morning.
As the center of the low pressure system gets closer tomorrow morning the precipitation will pick up in intensity. This is going to hold the rain snow line steady across Northeastern MA back to Central MA. Points to the north and west of here will stay all snow. Temperatures are going to be near or above freezing for the duration of this storm so the snow is going to be wet and heavy. This will keep amounts down, but make it nearly impossible to move by shovel or snowblower. Tomorrow afternoon the precipitation will start to wind down, but as this happens cold air will start to move in aloft and this should change any rain over to snow by the late afternoon, this includes the Boston area. However, no accumulation is expected. Here is the map I promised.
Now, my skills in Paint aren't that great, so I was liberal with the 6-12 inches. Higher elevations are going to have the best chance to see 12 inches. Locations like Nashua and Manchester would probably be better represented with a 6-9 inch total, but it would have taken me all day to try to depict that! Either way, this is a plow-able event that is going to be a pain in the neck and back.
Power outages are expected tomorrow when you combine the heavy snow and the wind we will see. Some trees may come down as the top layer of the soil has thawed, so shallow rooted trees are going to be susceptible to be blown over.
The good news is that this weekend temperatures are going to be at normal levels, so the majority of snow we see in the next 36 hours will mostly be gone by Sunday afternoon. Further out into next week, it looks like the warm up will progress further to go along with a rain event toward the middle of next week.
Post any questions below if you are looking amounts in specific locations and I'll answer as quickly as I can.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Still looking snowy..
Models have trended ever so slightly warmer, but parts of New England are looking at a substantial snow storm this Friday.
Today: Mostly sunny, highs near 50 south, upper 30s and low 40s north.
Tonight: A few clouds, lows 30-35 south, single digits and teens north.
Tomorrow: Some sun early then increasing clouds, highs in the mid 40s south, near 40 north.
Tomorrow night: Rain and snow develops south, all snow north. 6-10 inches possible in higher elevations of Central and Northern New England, 2-4 in Central MA and Southern New England. Lows 30 to 35 south, mid 20s north.
Friday: Rain and snow south in the morning changes to all snow in the afternoon, staying all snow north. Additional accumulations likely. Another 6-12 possible north, additional 3-6 possible south. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s(coast) south, low 30s north.
Discussion:
This storm is proving to be problematic. After a few days of the models coming to an agreement, they are starting to deviate again. One model is bring the low pressure center over New England, which is a warm solution and means more rain. One model has shifted slightly westward, which is only slightly warmer, but still brings a lot of snow. Some of the shorter range models are keeping the storm to the East, which is colder and means a LOT of snow.
I've been arguing with myself all morning about how I want to handle this beast. I've done my best to come up with a consensus solution, which seems like the most logical thing to do at this point. Here it goes:
We'll see the precipitation develop overnight on Thursday, southern areas will see some mixed precipitation, north of the NH border its going to definitely be all snow. The storm appears to be moving a bit faster now, so there will be some significant amounts possible before Friday morning. Northern New England is going to take the brunt of this storm, some places possibly seeing as much as 2 feet of snow. This will make skiers and the resorts happy. Further south, across Southern New England, is where the forecast gets tricky. There will be some rain mixing in and this is where the track of the storm makes a HUGE difference. I'm taking a middle of the road approach here. Inside 495 will likely stay mostly rain, AFTER the sun comes up on Friday. This will last until about 1 PM, at that point, cold air will start to wrap back into the area. Rain will change over to snow and slushy accumulations, 2-5 inches, are likely. Outside of 495, north and west toward Manchester. A brief changeover, or period of mixing is possible, however I'm expecting mainly snow from this system right now. It is going to be very wet and heavy, currently thinking 4-8 inches here.
I'm going to be watching this as closely as I can today and will put a map together tomorrow to help everyone better understand what I expect to happen. Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Mostly sunny, highs near 50 south, upper 30s and low 40s north.
Tonight: A few clouds, lows 30-35 south, single digits and teens north.
Tomorrow: Some sun early then increasing clouds, highs in the mid 40s south, near 40 north.
Tomorrow night: Rain and snow develops south, all snow north. 6-10 inches possible in higher elevations of Central and Northern New England, 2-4 in Central MA and Southern New England. Lows 30 to 35 south, mid 20s north.
Friday: Rain and snow south in the morning changes to all snow in the afternoon, staying all snow north. Additional accumulations likely. Another 6-12 possible north, additional 3-6 possible south. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s(coast) south, low 30s north.
Discussion:
This storm is proving to be problematic. After a few days of the models coming to an agreement, they are starting to deviate again. One model is bring the low pressure center over New England, which is a warm solution and means more rain. One model has shifted slightly westward, which is only slightly warmer, but still brings a lot of snow. Some of the shorter range models are keeping the storm to the East, which is colder and means a LOT of snow.
I've been arguing with myself all morning about how I want to handle this beast. I've done my best to come up with a consensus solution, which seems like the most logical thing to do at this point. Here it goes:
We'll see the precipitation develop overnight on Thursday, southern areas will see some mixed precipitation, north of the NH border its going to definitely be all snow. The storm appears to be moving a bit faster now, so there will be some significant amounts possible before Friday morning. Northern New England is going to take the brunt of this storm, some places possibly seeing as much as 2 feet of snow. This will make skiers and the resorts happy. Further south, across Southern New England, is where the forecast gets tricky. There will be some rain mixing in and this is where the track of the storm makes a HUGE difference. I'm taking a middle of the road approach here. Inside 495 will likely stay mostly rain, AFTER the sun comes up on Friday. This will last until about 1 PM, at that point, cold air will start to wrap back into the area. Rain will change over to snow and slushy accumulations, 2-5 inches, are likely. Outside of 495, north and west toward Manchester. A brief changeover, or period of mixing is possible, however I'm expecting mainly snow from this system right now. It is going to be very wet and heavy, currently thinking 4-8 inches here.
I'm going to be watching this as closely as I can today and will put a map together tomorrow to help everyone better understand what I expect to happen. Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Not looking good....
Do your best to enjoy the next few days because its not going to be pretty later this week.
Today: Sunny and breezy, highs in the mid 40s south, 35-40 north. Brush fires are a significant threat today.
Tonight: Clear, lows in the upper 20s south, 15-20 north.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, highs 45-50 south, near 40 north.
Tomorrow night: Becoming partly cloudy, lows near 30 south, teens north.
Thursday: Some sun early then becoming mostly cloudy, highs in the mid 40s south, 30s north.
Discussion:
So our weather will remain quiet here through the daylight hours on Thursday, then it will get out of control. High pressure will continue to dominate the region, providing lots of sunshine and continued slow warm up. The dry weather combined with the winds is making for dangerous fire weather conditions. It would be a good idea to not start any fires outdoors today or tomorrow. Breezy weather, low dewpoints and the recent dry spell has created a ticking timebomb for wild fires here in New England.
Now onto Friday's storm. The forecast models are starting to come into an agreement and unfortunately it's not what the majority of us want to see. The large upper level trough that has been sitting over the Eastern United States will start to sharpen. It has been a broad trough and this set up has been pushing storms to our south. When it starts to sharpen, the storm path will set up along the Eastern Seaboard. This all points to an early spring Nor'easter here in New England. Unfortunately, there will be cold air available for this storm to tap into as well. When this storm arrives will play a big role in precipitation type. At this point it looks like the majority of the precipitation will fall during the daylight hours of Friday. This should help to keep some areas free of snowfall, however, across the interior of New England, there is a chance of a plowable snowfall. It will definitely accumulate on grassy surfaces first and depending on the intensity, slush accumulations on roadways are possible as well.
Details to come as small shifts in the forecast track will make a big difference with this storm. Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K
Today: Sunny and breezy, highs in the mid 40s south, 35-40 north. Brush fires are a significant threat today.
Tonight: Clear, lows in the upper 20s south, 15-20 north.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, highs 45-50 south, near 40 north.
Tomorrow night: Becoming partly cloudy, lows near 30 south, teens north.
Thursday: Some sun early then becoming mostly cloudy, highs in the mid 40s south, 30s north.
Discussion:
So our weather will remain quiet here through the daylight hours on Thursday, then it will get out of control. High pressure will continue to dominate the region, providing lots of sunshine and continued slow warm up. The dry weather combined with the winds is making for dangerous fire weather conditions. It would be a good idea to not start any fires outdoors today or tomorrow. Breezy weather, low dewpoints and the recent dry spell has created a ticking timebomb for wild fires here in New England.
Now onto Friday's storm. The forecast models are starting to come into an agreement and unfortunately it's not what the majority of us want to see. The large upper level trough that has been sitting over the Eastern United States will start to sharpen. It has been a broad trough and this set up has been pushing storms to our south. When it starts to sharpen, the storm path will set up along the Eastern Seaboard. This all points to an early spring Nor'easter here in New England. Unfortunately, there will be cold air available for this storm to tap into as well. When this storm arrives will play a big role in precipitation type. At this point it looks like the majority of the precipitation will fall during the daylight hours of Friday. This should help to keep some areas free of snowfall, however, across the interior of New England, there is a chance of a plowable snowfall. It will definitely accumulate on grassy surfaces first and depending on the intensity, slush accumulations on roadways are possible as well.
Details to come as small shifts in the forecast track will make a big difference with this storm. Stay tuned.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K
Monday, March 28, 2011
April Fool's
Remember how March came in like a lamb? There is a possibility that is could go out like a lion...
Today: Mostly sunny, highs in the low 40s south, near 30 north.
Tonight: Clear, lows in the 20s south, teens and single digits north.
Tomorrow: Sunny, highs in the mid 40s south, mid 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Clear, lows in the mid 20s south, teens north.
Wednesday: Sunshine continues, highs 45-50 south, near 40 north.
Discussion:
The next 3 days are going to be beautiful here in New England with a gradual warming trend thanks to the strengthening March sunshine. High pressure remains in control and it will stay that way through Thursday. It will be after that when the forecast picture gets blurry.
Right now the forecast models are showing several different scenarios, some of which many of us will not like. Some models are showing a significant storm moving through New England bringing a mix of rain and snow. Where other models keep the storm far enough to south to really only bring some cloudiness into the region. If you are true believer is old sayings, then you'll buy into us getting a storm Thursday night into Friday. Since March came in like a lamb, it needs to go out like a lion?
I'm not making any decisions at this point because I still see this as being a 50/50 situation. We'll know more as we head through the week. Enjoy the next few days!
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Mostly sunny, highs in the low 40s south, near 30 north.
Tonight: Clear, lows in the 20s south, teens and single digits north.
Tomorrow: Sunny, highs in the mid 40s south, mid 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Clear, lows in the mid 20s south, teens north.
Wednesday: Sunshine continues, highs 45-50 south, near 40 north.
Discussion:
The next 3 days are going to be beautiful here in New England with a gradual warming trend thanks to the strengthening March sunshine. High pressure remains in control and it will stay that way through Thursday. It will be after that when the forecast picture gets blurry.
Right now the forecast models are showing several different scenarios, some of which many of us will not like. Some models are showing a significant storm moving through New England bringing a mix of rain and snow. Where other models keep the storm far enough to south to really only bring some cloudiness into the region. If you are true believer is old sayings, then you'll buy into us getting a storm Thursday night into Friday. Since March came in like a lamb, it needs to go out like a lion?
I'm not making any decisions at this point because I still see this as being a 50/50 situation. We'll know more as we head through the week. Enjoy the next few days!
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
No changes the next few days
High pressure still in control, bringing sunshine but below normal temperatures.
Today: Sunny but cool, highs 35-40 south, near 30 north.
Tonight: Clear, cold, lows upper teens and low 20s, single digits north.
Tomorrow: More sunshine, highs in the low 40s south, upper 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Clear, lows in the 20s south, teens north.
Monday: Mostly sunny, highs in the low 40s south, upper 30s north.
Discussion:
High pressure is in control and will stay in control through the weekend into early next week. This will be forcing a few storm systems to pass to our south through Wednesday. These will pass close enough to bring a few clouds early next week to Southern New England, but that will be about it. Eventually a storm system coming late next week will push the high pressure system out of the Northeast and bring unsettled weather back.
It's still a bit early to tell what we will see here in New England, but I'm still leaning toward mainly rain at this point. I'll have more on this as it gets closer. Enjoy your weekend!
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Sunny but cool, highs 35-40 south, near 30 north.
Tonight: Clear, cold, lows upper teens and low 20s, single digits north.
Tomorrow: More sunshine, highs in the low 40s south, upper 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Clear, lows in the 20s south, teens north.
Monday: Mostly sunny, highs in the low 40s south, upper 30s north.
Discussion:
High pressure is in control and will stay in control through the weekend into early next week. This will be forcing a few storm systems to pass to our south through Wednesday. These will pass close enough to bring a few clouds early next week to Southern New England, but that will be about it. Eventually a storm system coming late next week will push the high pressure system out of the Northeast and bring unsettled weather back.
It's still a bit early to tell what we will see here in New England, but I'm still leaning toward mainly rain at this point. I'll have more on this as it gets closer. Enjoy your weekend!
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Pleasant, but cool
Not too much to worry about over the next few days, high pressure is in full control.
Today: Lots of sun, highs near 40 south, low 30s north.
Tonight: Clear, chilly, lows in the upper teens and low 20s south, teens north.
Tomorrow: More sunshine, highs in the mid and upper 30s south, near 30 north.
Tomorrow night: Clear, lows near 20 south, single digits and teens north.
Sunday: Mainly sunny, highs in the low to mid 40s south, upper 30s north.
Discussion:
We are entering into what looks like an extended period of quiet weather here in New England. The combination of a large area of high pressure at the surface and an upper level trough are causing this. It will result in mostly clear skies but cool temperatures right into the beginning of next week. Gradually our daytime highs will creep up a few degrees each day once we hit Sunday as the strong March sun does it's work on mostly bare ground. Where there is still snow, it won't get as warm as most of the energy from the sun will either get reflected or be spent on melting the snow.
So, not too much to be concerned with until late next week. Forecast models are showing a storm system coming up from the Southeast into New England. Timing and wind direction here in New England will be factors in what type of precipitation we get. Given the time of year and the overall weather pattern, I think its relatively safe to say that most areas will have rain with this storm.
My gut is telling me we really won't have much more snow this year, but I think it will be slow to warm up to the Spring like temperatures that most people are ready for.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Lots of sun, highs near 40 south, low 30s north.
Tonight: Clear, chilly, lows in the upper teens and low 20s south, teens north.
Tomorrow: More sunshine, highs in the mid and upper 30s south, near 30 north.
Tomorrow night: Clear, lows near 20 south, single digits and teens north.
Sunday: Mainly sunny, highs in the low to mid 40s south, upper 30s north.
Discussion:
We are entering into what looks like an extended period of quiet weather here in New England. The combination of a large area of high pressure at the surface and an upper level trough are causing this. It will result in mostly clear skies but cool temperatures right into the beginning of next week. Gradually our daytime highs will creep up a few degrees each day once we hit Sunday as the strong March sun does it's work on mostly bare ground. Where there is still snow, it won't get as warm as most of the energy from the sun will either get reflected or be spent on melting the snow.
So, not too much to be concerned with until late next week. Forecast models are showing a storm system coming up from the Southeast into New England. Timing and wind direction here in New England will be factors in what type of precipitation we get. Given the time of year and the overall weather pattern, I think its relatively safe to say that most areas will have rain with this storm.
My gut is telling me we really won't have much more snow this year, but I think it will be slow to warm up to the Spring like temperatures that most people are ready for.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Pesky snowflakes
Ok, so it seems that this storm really doesn't want to leave us alone. Rain and snow showers have been on going for several hours now across Maine, New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Fortunately the precipitation has generally been on the light side and I don't see this changing through the rest of this afternoon or into the evening. Gradually the instability that is creating the rain and snow showers will pull away. This will allow for the showers to gradually fade out. This should happen over the next 6 hours or so, leaving mainly dry conditions during the overnight hours.
As far as I can tell, I don't see any accumulation reports. Most of the snow is falling and then melting almost immediately. That is the case for Massachusetts at least. There might be a light coating across NH and ME.
-Jon
As far as I can tell, I don't see any accumulation reports. Most of the snow is falling and then melting almost immediately. That is the case for Massachusetts at least. There might be a light coating across NH and ME.
-Jon
Lucked out!
Glad I was wrong, glad everyone was wrong. The storm that was supposed to cause problems ended up staying too far to the south to make a significant impact.
Today: Partly sunny, a few leftover snow showers for parts of Maine, highs around 40 south, 30s north.
Tonight: Clear, chilly, lows in the 20s south, teens north.
Tomorrow: Lots of sunshine, highs in the upper 30s south, low 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Mainly clear, lows around 20 south, upper single digits to low teens north.
Saturday: Sunshine continues, still cool, highs near 40 south, 30s north.
Discussion:
As the title of the blog states, we lucked out. All the forecast models were off on this one, trying to bring the storm further than it actually did. This kept the precipitation further to the south and spared New England from another round of accumulating snow. Some spots in Extreme Southern New England saw a little snow yesterday, but its not going to hang around.
Over the next few days we'll be under the influence of high pressure at the surface and a upper level trough. This will result in sunshine, but colder temperatures. The high at the surface will supply sinking air, keeping our skies generally clear of clouds. The upper level trough is feeding cold air in aloft which will hold our temperatures down, keeping them below normal. This overall pattern is going to remain in place right into the middle of next week. So it will look beautiful outside, but it will be much cooler than most people want it to be.
Right now it looks like our next round of unsettled weather will come late next week. Appears to be rain at this point, but it's over a week away and much can change before then.
Thanks for reading!
If you would like to be emailed each time I update this blog, email me at jpkomarek@gmail.com
-Jon K.
Today: Partly sunny, a few leftover snow showers for parts of Maine, highs around 40 south, 30s north.
Tonight: Clear, chilly, lows in the 20s south, teens north.
Tomorrow: Lots of sunshine, highs in the upper 30s south, low 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Mainly clear, lows around 20 south, upper single digits to low teens north.
Saturday: Sunshine continues, still cool, highs near 40 south, 30s north.
Discussion:
As the title of the blog states, we lucked out. All the forecast models were off on this one, trying to bring the storm further than it actually did. This kept the precipitation further to the south and spared New England from another round of accumulating snow. Some spots in Extreme Southern New England saw a little snow yesterday, but its not going to hang around.
Over the next few days we'll be under the influence of high pressure at the surface and a upper level trough. This will result in sunshine, but colder temperatures. The high at the surface will supply sinking air, keeping our skies generally clear of clouds. The upper level trough is feeding cold air in aloft which will hold our temperatures down, keeping them below normal. This overall pattern is going to remain in place right into the middle of next week. So it will look beautiful outside, but it will be much cooler than most people want it to be.
Right now it looks like our next round of unsettled weather will come late next week. Appears to be rain at this point, but it's over a week away and much can change before then.
Thanks for reading!
If you would like to be emailed each time I update this blog, email me at jpkomarek@gmail.com
-Jon K.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Snow on it's way
The title may be a bit more ominous sounding than it's actually going to be the next couple of days, however, snow is coming.
Today: Mostly cloudy south, partly sunny north, chance of rain/snow south late in the afternoon, highs near 40 south, 30-35 north.
Tonight: Rain/snow mix changes to all snow south, snow showers at times for Central and Northern New England. 2-4 inches for CT, RI and Southern and Western MA(Southeastern MA not included), less than 2 inches elsewhere. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s south, teens north.
Tomorrow: Occassional rain and snow showers, accumulations of 1-3 inches possible across the interior of Central and Northern New England, highs around 40 south, mid 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Rain and snow showers come to an end, lows in the 20s south, teens north.
Friday: Partly sunny, highs in the mid and upper 30s south, low 30s north.
Discussion:
So winter doesn't want to give up just yet, just ask the folks in the Upper Midwest. Several places there received at least a foot of snow. Fortunately we are not going to have to deal with anything of that magnitude. There is a low pressure system extending a warm front across the Great Lakes down to NYC and then south of New England. This warm front will be the focal point for the precipitation we see today and tonight. The areas that experience rain and snow from this front will generally be confined to Southern New England and for the most part, extreme Southern New England. Temperatures will be relatively mild, keeping the snow to liquid ratio low, thereby keeping amounts low. If it were colder, there would be much more snow from this system.
On Thursday the low pressure center will push just south of New England and will start to wrap up. This means that it will look like a Nor'easter for a short period of time. As this happens, I expect to see a band of enchanced snowfall set up in a north to south orientation. Wherever this sets up, those locations will likely see a few additional inches of snow. Right now it appears that it will develop somewhere across the interior of Central and Northern New England. My best guess right now is right near the NH/ME border.
So overall, this system will be more of an annoyance than anything else. Any snow we receive will be gone by the time the upcoming weekend is finished.
Thanks for reading!
Also, if you would like an email notification when my blog is updated, send me an email @ jpkomarek@gmail.com.
-Jon K.
Today: Mostly cloudy south, partly sunny north, chance of rain/snow south late in the afternoon, highs near 40 south, 30-35 north.
Tonight: Rain/snow mix changes to all snow south, snow showers at times for Central and Northern New England. 2-4 inches for CT, RI and Southern and Western MA(Southeastern MA not included), less than 2 inches elsewhere. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s south, teens north.
Tomorrow: Occassional rain and snow showers, accumulations of 1-3 inches possible across the interior of Central and Northern New England, highs around 40 south, mid 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Rain and snow showers come to an end, lows in the 20s south, teens north.
Friday: Partly sunny, highs in the mid and upper 30s south, low 30s north.
Discussion:
So winter doesn't want to give up just yet, just ask the folks in the Upper Midwest. Several places there received at least a foot of snow. Fortunately we are not going to have to deal with anything of that magnitude. There is a low pressure system extending a warm front across the Great Lakes down to NYC and then south of New England. This warm front will be the focal point for the precipitation we see today and tonight. The areas that experience rain and snow from this front will generally be confined to Southern New England and for the most part, extreme Southern New England. Temperatures will be relatively mild, keeping the snow to liquid ratio low, thereby keeping amounts low. If it were colder, there would be much more snow from this system.
On Thursday the low pressure center will push just south of New England and will start to wrap up. This means that it will look like a Nor'easter for a short period of time. As this happens, I expect to see a band of enchanced snowfall set up in a north to south orientation. Wherever this sets up, those locations will likely see a few additional inches of snow. Right now it appears that it will develop somewhere across the interior of Central and Northern New England. My best guess right now is right near the NH/ME border.
So overall, this system will be more of an annoyance than anything else. Any snow we receive will be gone by the time the upcoming weekend is finished.
Thanks for reading!
Also, if you would like an email notification when my blog is updated, send me an email @ jpkomarek@gmail.com.
-Jon K.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Forecast on track
Just a quick update. It looks like the southern track seems to be correct one. Southern New England will take the brunt of the storm, particularly south of I-90. Amounts should be less than 6 inches across Southern New England and in general should be less than 4 inches. This system will hang around for a few quite sometime. Starting on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday evening.
I'll have a more substantial update in the morning.
-Jon K.
I'll have a more substantial update in the morning.
-Jon K.
Quiet today...
Cloudy but seasonable for today, another storm system on horizon for tomorrow.
Today: Mostly cloudy, highs in the mid and upper 40s south, upper 30s and low 40s north.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, lows in the upper 20s south, teens north.
Tomorrow: Cloudy, chance of rain or snow showers south late in the afternoon, highs 35-40 south, low 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Rain and snow likely south, chance of snow showers north, lows in the upper 20s.
Thursday: Rain and snow continues south, chance of snow showers north, highs near 40 south, mid 30s north.
Discussion:
Model discrepancies are abound this morning with the storm system scheduled to arrive on Wednesday night. This makes it very difficult to give a forecast with any amount of confidence. For today, we should be dry with seasonable temperatures despite the lack of any sunstained sunshine. Meanwhile a large low pressure system is gathering in the Upper Midwest. This is going to be a significant winter storm for this region, winter storm warning and blizzard warnings are in place in the Dakotas this morning.
This system will be progressive and will push eastward today and tomorrow. As it crosses the Great Lakes and the subsequent path is where the forecast models start to differ. There is one model that brings heavy amounts of liquids to all of New England, this is a more northerly track. A few other models seem to prefer a more southerly track, which would restrict the precipitation to Southern New England. I'm hedging toward the consensus right now, but I'm leaving the mention in the forecast for northern sections for now, in case the track looks like it will be further to the north. Snowfall amounts are going to heavily depend on the track of the system. Right now it appears Southern MA(not Southeastern MA), Northern CT and RI are going to have the best chance for a plowable accumulation. Temperatures during the day on Thursday will get above freezing, so this will keep amounts down a bit.
I'm going to keep an eye on this today and probably write up another update this afternoon after I've seen the morning model runs and see what is happening off to our west.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Mostly cloudy, highs in the mid and upper 40s south, upper 30s and low 40s north.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, lows in the upper 20s south, teens north.
Tomorrow: Cloudy, chance of rain or snow showers south late in the afternoon, highs 35-40 south, low 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Rain and snow likely south, chance of snow showers north, lows in the upper 20s.
Thursday: Rain and snow continues south, chance of snow showers north, highs near 40 south, mid 30s north.
Discussion:
Model discrepancies are abound this morning with the storm system scheduled to arrive on Wednesday night. This makes it very difficult to give a forecast with any amount of confidence. For today, we should be dry with seasonable temperatures despite the lack of any sunstained sunshine. Meanwhile a large low pressure system is gathering in the Upper Midwest. This is going to be a significant winter storm for this region, winter storm warning and blizzard warnings are in place in the Dakotas this morning.
This system will be progressive and will push eastward today and tomorrow. As it crosses the Great Lakes and the subsequent path is where the forecast models start to differ. There is one model that brings heavy amounts of liquids to all of New England, this is a more northerly track. A few other models seem to prefer a more southerly track, which would restrict the precipitation to Southern New England. I'm hedging toward the consensus right now, but I'm leaving the mention in the forecast for northern sections for now, in case the track looks like it will be further to the north. Snowfall amounts are going to heavily depend on the track of the system. Right now it appears Southern MA(not Southeastern MA), Northern CT and RI are going to have the best chance for a plowable accumulation. Temperatures during the day on Thursday will get above freezing, so this will keep amounts down a bit.
I'm going to keep an eye on this today and probably write up another update this afternoon after I've seen the morning model runs and see what is happening off to our west.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Monday, March 21, 2011
Where's Spring?
The title should say it all, I really don't have any good news for the next or so.
Tonight: Any remaining snow and rain ending this evening, lows 30-35 south, 20s north.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, a few breaks of sun at times, highs in the mid and upper 40s south, around 40 north.
Tomorrow night: Clouds thicken again, lows 25-30 south, teens north.
Wednesday: Cloudy, snow possible late in the afternoon, mixed with rain along the coast, highs 38-43 south, 30s north.
Wednesday night into Thursday: Snow likely, especially across Southern New England, accumulations likely.
Discussion:
I'll have a more detailed discussion tomorrow morning but for now a quick hit at what is coming mid-week and a brief glance at the rest of the month.
Wednesday we will be affected by another low pressure system. This will be passing to the south of New England. Where the precipitation will set up is the question. Right now it looks like Southern New England will be impacted the most Wednesday night into Thursday. A plowable snow is looking quite likely at this point.
Beyond this storm, temperatures are going to remain chilly, but dry for the most part. It looks like we stay under an upper level trough for at least another week. This will keep the cold air locked in over the Northeast. The strong sun will help a bit, but we will be starting cold each morning limiting how warm we will get during the day.
Thanks for reading, check back in tomorrow morning for more.
-Jon K.
Tonight: Any remaining snow and rain ending this evening, lows 30-35 south, 20s north.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, a few breaks of sun at times, highs in the mid and upper 40s south, around 40 north.
Tomorrow night: Clouds thicken again, lows 25-30 south, teens north.
Wednesday: Cloudy, snow possible late in the afternoon, mixed with rain along the coast, highs 38-43 south, 30s north.
Wednesday night into Thursday: Snow likely, especially across Southern New England, accumulations likely.
Discussion:
I'll have a more detailed discussion tomorrow morning but for now a quick hit at what is coming mid-week and a brief glance at the rest of the month.
Wednesday we will be affected by another low pressure system. This will be passing to the south of New England. Where the precipitation will set up is the question. Right now it looks like Southern New England will be impacted the most Wednesday night into Thursday. A plowable snow is looking quite likely at this point.
Beyond this storm, temperatures are going to remain chilly, but dry for the most part. It looks like we stay under an upper level trough for at least another week. This will keep the cold air locked in over the Northeast. The strong sun will help a bit, but we will be starting cold each morning limiting how warm we will get during the day.
Thanks for reading, check back in tomorrow morning for more.
-Jon K.
Precipitation on it's way
Just a quick update for right now.
The precipitation will be moving in over the next few hours. Many places should start out with a rain/snow mix or just all snow. Gradually the rain/snow line will push northward over Southern New England, eventually making it as far north as Southern New Hampshire and VT by mid to late afternoon. One thing that I see that morning is the radar looks much more impressive than expected. I still don't think there will be too much accumulation south of Manchester, NH, but amounts north of here need to be re-evaluated.
As it stands now, 2 inches or less from Manchester, NH southward. North of Manchester, a general 3 to 5 inches is expected with isolated spots getting as much as 7 or 8 inches.
I'll have an update on the rest of the week later today.
-Jon K.
The precipitation will be moving in over the next few hours. Many places should start out with a rain/snow mix or just all snow. Gradually the rain/snow line will push northward over Southern New England, eventually making it as far north as Southern New Hampshire and VT by mid to late afternoon. One thing that I see that morning is the radar looks much more impressive than expected. I still don't think there will be too much accumulation south of Manchester, NH, but amounts north of here need to be re-evaluated.
As it stands now, 2 inches or less from Manchester, NH southward. North of Manchester, a general 3 to 5 inches is expected with isolated spots getting as much as 7 or 8 inches.
I'll have an update on the rest of the week later today.
-Jon K.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Winter on the first day of spring
Spring begins on Monday. As it begins, we'll see some rain, snow and sleet in New England.
Today: Bright sunshine, highs in the mid and upper 40s south, near 40 north.
Tonight: Increasing clouds, lows in the mid and upper 20s south, teens north.
Tomorrow: Snow to start, changing to rain in part of Southern New England(details below), highs in the mid and upper 30s south, upper 20s and low 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Leftover rain and snow comes to an end, lows in the low 30s south, mid 20s north.
Tuesday: Mainly cloudy, highs in the low 40s south, 30s north.
Discussion:
High pressure is still in control of the region for today, this will provide lots of sunshine and temperatures a few degress above normal. A low pressure system will start to move in tonight, with the precipitation holding off until after the sun comes up tomorrow. Most places, except maybe extreme southwestern New England will start with snow. Gradually the rain/snow line will move toward the north and east, making it as far as Central New England, somewhere near Manchester, NH by late afternoon. There will likely be a few spots that have a period of sleet in the morning to add to the fun. Fortunately, there won't be too much accumulation on Monday. Northern New England will have the best chance of accumulating snow with 1-2 inches possible, generally less than an inch everywhere else.
This low pressure system will move out of the region on Monday night. Our sky will remain cloudy for the most part on Tuesday as we will only have a brief break before another storm system arrives on Wednesday. This storm looks a little more potent and there again will be cold air around for some wintry precipitation. Exactly what we will see remains to be seen, but right now I think it will be a bit colder than Monday's storm so I expect to see more in the way of accumulating snow. More on this storm over the next couple of days.
Beyond Wednesday, it looks like our weather will be generally be dry, but below normal temperatures. A large upper level trough will set up over New England, locking cold air over the Northeastern US.
Thanks for reading!
If you are on facebook, search for Jon the Weatherman and then click like.
-Jon K.
Today: Bright sunshine, highs in the mid and upper 40s south, near 40 north.
Tonight: Increasing clouds, lows in the mid and upper 20s south, teens north.
Tomorrow: Snow to start, changing to rain in part of Southern New England(details below), highs in the mid and upper 30s south, upper 20s and low 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Leftover rain and snow comes to an end, lows in the low 30s south, mid 20s north.
Tuesday: Mainly cloudy, highs in the low 40s south, 30s north.
Discussion:
High pressure is still in control of the region for today, this will provide lots of sunshine and temperatures a few degress above normal. A low pressure system will start to move in tonight, with the precipitation holding off until after the sun comes up tomorrow. Most places, except maybe extreme southwestern New England will start with snow. Gradually the rain/snow line will move toward the north and east, making it as far as Central New England, somewhere near Manchester, NH by late afternoon. There will likely be a few spots that have a period of sleet in the morning to add to the fun. Fortunately, there won't be too much accumulation on Monday. Northern New England will have the best chance of accumulating snow with 1-2 inches possible, generally less than an inch everywhere else.
This low pressure system will move out of the region on Monday night. Our sky will remain cloudy for the most part on Tuesday as we will only have a brief break before another storm system arrives on Wednesday. This storm looks a little more potent and there again will be cold air around for some wintry precipitation. Exactly what we will see remains to be seen, but right now I think it will be a bit colder than Monday's storm so I expect to see more in the way of accumulating snow. More on this storm over the next couple of days.
Beyond Wednesday, it looks like our weather will be generally be dry, but below normal temperatures. A large upper level trough will set up over New England, locking cold air over the Northeastern US.
Thanks for reading!
If you are on facebook, search for Jon the Weatherman and then click like.
-Jon K.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Mild today, cooler for the weekend
Enjoy the beautiful weather we are having today as cooler conditions are on their way for this weekend.
Today: Partly to mostly sunny, windy at times, highs mid and upper 60s south, 50s north.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, breezy, lows in the upper 20s and low 30s south, teens and low 20s north.
Tomorrow: A few clouds in the morning then sunshine, breezy, highs in the low 40s south, mid 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Clear, chilly, lows in the low to mid 20s south, single digits and teens north.
Sunday: Lots of sunshine, highs in the 40s south, upper 30s north.
Discussion:
The front that is passing through New England today barely has any clouds associated with it, let alone precipitation. Behind this front and a secondary front is much cooler air and the winds that will pick up in speed today will be ushering this cooler air in. We will probably hit our daytime highs pretty early today and then temperatures will remain steady or slowly drop off late in the afternoon. Once the secondary front passes through tonight and early tomorrow morning high pressure will build in. This will supply a good deal of sunshine for this weekend. The bright sunshine should help to offset some of the cooler air in the region, during the daylight hours at least.
Dry weather will persist through the daylight hours on Monday. Our next storm system looks to be scheduled to arrive on Monday night or Tuesday morning. As it stands right now, looks like mainly a rain make for most of New England, though I do expect some wintry precipitation across northern sections. Time will tell to see when the storm arrives and how far south that wintry precipitation makes it.
Beyond early next week, it should be relatively dry, but remaining cool. I don't see another stretch of days like we had yesterday and today for the next week and a half unfortunately.
That's all for now, thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Partly to mostly sunny, windy at times, highs mid and upper 60s south, 50s north.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, breezy, lows in the upper 20s and low 30s south, teens and low 20s north.
Tomorrow: A few clouds in the morning then sunshine, breezy, highs in the low 40s south, mid 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Clear, chilly, lows in the low to mid 20s south, single digits and teens north.
Sunday: Lots of sunshine, highs in the 40s south, upper 30s north.
Discussion:
The front that is passing through New England today barely has any clouds associated with it, let alone precipitation. Behind this front and a secondary front is much cooler air and the winds that will pick up in speed today will be ushering this cooler air in. We will probably hit our daytime highs pretty early today and then temperatures will remain steady or slowly drop off late in the afternoon. Once the secondary front passes through tonight and early tomorrow morning high pressure will build in. This will supply a good deal of sunshine for this weekend. The bright sunshine should help to offset some of the cooler air in the region, during the daylight hours at least.
Dry weather will persist through the daylight hours on Monday. Our next storm system looks to be scheduled to arrive on Monday night or Tuesday morning. As it stands right now, looks like mainly a rain make for most of New England, though I do expect some wintry precipitation across northern sections. Time will tell to see when the storm arrives and how far south that wintry precipitation makes it.
Beyond early next week, it should be relatively dry, but remaining cool. I don't see another stretch of days like we had yesterday and today for the next week and a half unfortunately.
That's all for now, thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Beautiful St. Patty's Day
We are in between low pressure systems today, warmth expected through tomorrow before cooling off for the upcoming weekend.
Today: Lots of sunshine, highs in the mid 50s south, mid and upper 40s north.
Tonight: Increasing clouds, slight chance of rain showers toward morning, lows in the 40s south, low to mid 30s north.
Tomorrow: A few morning showers possible, breaks of sunshine develops, mild, highs in the low to mid 60s south, 50s north.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy, lows in the upper 20s and low 30s south, teens and 20s north.
Saturday: Partly sunny, highs in the mid 40s south, upper 30s and low 40s north.
Discussion:
We are under the influence of a small area of high pressure today that is wedged in between the storm we had yesterday and a system that will race to our north tomorrow. Southwesterly winds and bring sunshine will push temperatures to above normal levels for today and this will continue tomorrow. As the high pressure system shifts off shore tonight, a fast moving area of low pressure will slide by to our north during the first half of the day tomorrow. This will swing a weak front through the region. There doesn't appear to be very much moisture associated with the front in the forecast models, so only low chances of rain showers early on Friday morning. Once the front passes through, we should see some breaks in the clouds develop. With this sunshine, temperatures should get even warmer on Friday than we will see today.
Friday will be the end of the above normal temperatures for a few day unfortunately. A secondary front will push through on Friday night, another dry frontal passage, but will bring the chilly air back. Daytime highs over the weekend will be back to normal, 30s and 40s across New England. Conditions should remain dry through the weekend, with our next storm potentially arrive on Tuesday. This storm could be interesting depending on how much cold air it can tap into from Eastern Canada. It looks like some places may see some snow out of this storm, particularly in Northern New England. Timing and path of the storm will also play a role in who sees what.
So enjoy the warmth we will have today and tomorrow, this should go a long way to helping get rid of the remaining snow cover in Southern and Central New England.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Lots of sunshine, highs in the mid 50s south, mid and upper 40s north.
Tonight: Increasing clouds, slight chance of rain showers toward morning, lows in the 40s south, low to mid 30s north.
Tomorrow: A few morning showers possible, breaks of sunshine develops, mild, highs in the low to mid 60s south, 50s north.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy, lows in the upper 20s and low 30s south, teens and 20s north.
Saturday: Partly sunny, highs in the mid 40s south, upper 30s and low 40s north.
Discussion:
We are under the influence of a small area of high pressure today that is wedged in between the storm we had yesterday and a system that will race to our north tomorrow. Southwesterly winds and bring sunshine will push temperatures to above normal levels for today and this will continue tomorrow. As the high pressure system shifts off shore tonight, a fast moving area of low pressure will slide by to our north during the first half of the day tomorrow. This will swing a weak front through the region. There doesn't appear to be very much moisture associated with the front in the forecast models, so only low chances of rain showers early on Friday morning. Once the front passes through, we should see some breaks in the clouds develop. With this sunshine, temperatures should get even warmer on Friday than we will see today.
Friday will be the end of the above normal temperatures for a few day unfortunately. A secondary front will push through on Friday night, another dry frontal passage, but will bring the chilly air back. Daytime highs over the weekend will be back to normal, 30s and 40s across New England. Conditions should remain dry through the weekend, with our next storm potentially arrive on Tuesday. This storm could be interesting depending on how much cold air it can tap into from Eastern Canada. It looks like some places may see some snow out of this storm, particularly in Northern New England. Timing and path of the storm will also play a role in who sees what.
So enjoy the warmth we will have today and tomorrow, this should go a long way to helping get rid of the remaining snow cover in Southern and Central New England.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Unsettled this morning
As advertised yesterday, there is a bit of wintry precipitation around this morning. Milder air returns tomorrow.
Today: Any mixed precipitation south of Concord, NH changes to rain by 11 AM, snow/sleet mix continues north into the early afternoon. Rain/mix should taper off by mid afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 40s south, mid and upper 30s north.
Tonight: Decreasing clouds, lows in the mid 20s north, low to mid 30s south.
Tomorrow: Bright sunshine, warm, highs 55-60 south(cooler along the coast), upper 40s to low 50s north.
Tomorrow night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, lows upper 30s to low 40s south, 30s north.
Friday: Chance of a rain shower, mainly in the morning, highs in the low to mid 60s south, 50s north.
Discussion:
A few changes, rather improvements, to the forecast this morning. One, the majority of the precipitation today will be to the south which will prevent hardly any accumulating snow across Northern and Central New England. Good for most, bad for others, skiers who wanted to keep the season going. Second is the forecast for the weekend. What looked like it was going to be a messy Friday and Saturday, doesn't look as bad this morning.
So for today, a low pressure system is blasting through the region. Eventually most locations will change over to rain, a few spots north getting stuck with all snow or a snow/sleet mix. Little or no accumulation expected. Most of the precipitation will be clear by 2 PM in Southern New England, 4 PM Northern New England. Our skies will clear overnight tonight but temperatures won't plummet overnight as warm air will already be moving in overhead.
This warm up aloft will push temperatures up and up tomorrow and Friday. Thursday will be the nicest looking day where Friday will be the warmer of the two days. Friday morning there will be a weak frontal system that will push through the region that could set off a few scattered showers, mainly during the morning. After that clears we should see periods of sunshine and temperatures climbing into the 60s for Southern New England, upper 50s to the north. Eventually this frontal passage will bring a crash in our temperatures as this weekend will be much cooler. Highs should generally be in the 40s for both Saturday and Sunday and we should be relatively dry. There is a slight chance of a rain or snow shower on Saturday morning with a secondary front that will push through, helping to usher in that cold air. After that, high pressure will take over a few days, bringing plenty of sunshine. Monday will probably be the coolest days where daytime highs might be stuck in the 30s.
Thanks for reading and don't be afraid to share this blog with everyone you know! :-)
-Jon K.
Today: Any mixed precipitation south of Concord, NH changes to rain by 11 AM, snow/sleet mix continues north into the early afternoon. Rain/mix should taper off by mid afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 40s south, mid and upper 30s north.
Tonight: Decreasing clouds, lows in the mid 20s north, low to mid 30s south.
Tomorrow: Bright sunshine, warm, highs 55-60 south(cooler along the coast), upper 40s to low 50s north.
Tomorrow night: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy, lows upper 30s to low 40s south, 30s north.
Friday: Chance of a rain shower, mainly in the morning, highs in the low to mid 60s south, 50s north.
Discussion:
A few changes, rather improvements, to the forecast this morning. One, the majority of the precipitation today will be to the south which will prevent hardly any accumulating snow across Northern and Central New England. Good for most, bad for others, skiers who wanted to keep the season going. Second is the forecast for the weekend. What looked like it was going to be a messy Friday and Saturday, doesn't look as bad this morning.
So for today, a low pressure system is blasting through the region. Eventually most locations will change over to rain, a few spots north getting stuck with all snow or a snow/sleet mix. Little or no accumulation expected. Most of the precipitation will be clear by 2 PM in Southern New England, 4 PM Northern New England. Our skies will clear overnight tonight but temperatures won't plummet overnight as warm air will already be moving in overhead.
This warm up aloft will push temperatures up and up tomorrow and Friday. Thursday will be the nicest looking day where Friday will be the warmer of the two days. Friday morning there will be a weak frontal system that will push through the region that could set off a few scattered showers, mainly during the morning. After that clears we should see periods of sunshine and temperatures climbing into the 60s for Southern New England, upper 50s to the north. Eventually this frontal passage will bring a crash in our temperatures as this weekend will be much cooler. Highs should generally be in the 40s for both Saturday and Sunday and we should be relatively dry. There is a slight chance of a rain or snow shower on Saturday morning with a secondary front that will push through, helping to usher in that cold air. After that, high pressure will take over a few days, bringing plenty of sunshine. Monday will probably be the coolest days where daytime highs might be stuck in the 30s.
Thanks for reading and don't be afraid to share this blog with everyone you know! :-)
-Jon K.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Quick shot of winter then mild
It wouldn't be New England weather if we didn't jump from mild to snow to mild over 3 days.
Today: Plenty of sunshine, highs near 50 south, upper 30s to mid 40s north.
Tonight: Increasing clouds, slight chance of snow showers south toward dawn, 30 to 35 south, teens to mid 20s north.
Tomorrow: Rain/snow/sleet mix through the morning, changing to rain early afternoon south, staying wintry mix north, highs in the low 40s south, 30s north. Slushy accumulations possible.
Tomorrow night: Any precipitation come to an end, decreasing clouds, lows mid 30s south, 20s north.
Thursday: Lots of sunshine, mild. Highs in the mid and upper 50s south, upper 40s to low 50s north.
Discussion:
A quiet day today ahead of quick moving yet relatively intense low pressure system that will race through tomorrow. Temperatures with plenty of sunshine will climb nicely to at or above normals for mid March. As the low pressure system gets closer tonight, clouds will start to move in late today and tonight. This will help keep surface temperatures up slightly, but still will be cold enough to allow for wintry precipitation tomorrow. It looks like the majority of the wintry mix will hold off until after the sun comes up tomorrow, though southwestern sections of New England will likely experience some snow/sleet around 5 or 6 AM. It looks like the bulk of the precipitation will fall between 8 AM and 2 PM and during that time, locations north of the MA border with VT and NH will have a temperature profile that supports snow or a wintry mix. Fortuntately, surface temperatures will already be above freezing so this will help limit the amount of accumulations. The further north you go, however, the more likely you are to see a few inches of heavy wet snow.
As the system races eastward tomorrow night, it will take the cloudiness with it and then we are in for some pleasant weather on Thursday. Lots of sunshine and mild temperatures. The winds will be light, so there might be a sea breeze that develops that keeps coastal areas from getting too warm.
Sadly, the pleasant weather will be short lived as a few disturbance will slide through New England on Friday and Saturday. Friday's event appears to be mainly a rain maker, save for a few areas in Northern New England where a wintry mix is possible early in the morning. Saturday's is a bit more tricky as there will be more cold air available at the mid levels of the atmosphere so more locations will likely experience some snow/sleet/freezing rain. Right now I expect this to be confined to Central and Northern New England. Sunday just looks cloudy but dry at this point and will probably be a bit chilly.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Plenty of sunshine, highs near 50 south, upper 30s to mid 40s north.
Tonight: Increasing clouds, slight chance of snow showers south toward dawn, 30 to 35 south, teens to mid 20s north.
Tomorrow: Rain/snow/sleet mix through the morning, changing to rain early afternoon south, staying wintry mix north, highs in the low 40s south, 30s north. Slushy accumulations possible.
Tomorrow night: Any precipitation come to an end, decreasing clouds, lows mid 30s south, 20s north.
Thursday: Lots of sunshine, mild. Highs in the mid and upper 50s south, upper 40s to low 50s north.
Discussion:
A quiet day today ahead of quick moving yet relatively intense low pressure system that will race through tomorrow. Temperatures with plenty of sunshine will climb nicely to at or above normals for mid March. As the low pressure system gets closer tonight, clouds will start to move in late today and tonight. This will help keep surface temperatures up slightly, but still will be cold enough to allow for wintry precipitation tomorrow. It looks like the majority of the wintry mix will hold off until after the sun comes up tomorrow, though southwestern sections of New England will likely experience some snow/sleet around 5 or 6 AM. It looks like the bulk of the precipitation will fall between 8 AM and 2 PM and during that time, locations north of the MA border with VT and NH will have a temperature profile that supports snow or a wintry mix. Fortuntately, surface temperatures will already be above freezing so this will help limit the amount of accumulations. The further north you go, however, the more likely you are to see a few inches of heavy wet snow.
As the system races eastward tomorrow night, it will take the cloudiness with it and then we are in for some pleasant weather on Thursday. Lots of sunshine and mild temperatures. The winds will be light, so there might be a sea breeze that develops that keeps coastal areas from getting too warm.
Sadly, the pleasant weather will be short lived as a few disturbance will slide through New England on Friday and Saturday. Friday's event appears to be mainly a rain maker, save for a few areas in Northern New England where a wintry mix is possible early in the morning. Saturday's is a bit more tricky as there will be more cold air available at the mid levels of the atmosphere so more locations will likely experience some snow/sleet/freezing rain. Right now I expect this to be confined to Central and Northern New England. Sunday just looks cloudy but dry at this point and will probably be a bit chilly.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Cool to start the week.
I took the weekend off, back at the keyboard today. There is a weak disturbance higher up in the atmosphere that is providing cloudiness and the cooler temperatures to start the work week.
Today: Cloudy, slight chance of a rain or snow showers, highs in the upper 30s south, low to mid 30s north.
Tonight: Decreasing cloudiness, lows in 25-30 south, ranging from the single digits to the teens north.
Tomorrow: Lots of sunshine, highs low to mid 40s for all of New England.
Tomorrow night: Clouds move back in, chance of snow showers towards dawn, lows upper 20s to low 30s south, near 20 north,
Wednesday: Snow showers possible early, transitioning to rain in Southern and Central New England, staying snow north. Highs in low 40s south, mid and upper 30s north.
Discussion:
There is an upper level low pressure system that is moving through New England today that is causing all the cloudiness. It might also kick off a few rain or snow showers, nothing substantial however. As the upper level low moves to the east tonight, our skies will clear. This will allow temperatures to get much colder than they have over the last few nights. Many places will be below freezing for a first time in a couple of days. We will see lots of sunshine which will send temperatures back up tomorrow, making for a pleasant day. It will be short lived as a fast moving surface low will push into the region on Wednesday. Depending on timing of this system, there may be some snow for Southern and Central New England. As we get into the daylight hours, temperatures will climb and change the snow over to rain. Further north in Northern New England, the temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere will support snow. Accumulations will be light in Northern New England as the bulk of the precipitation should fall over Southern New England.
After this storm system pulls away, we will see our temperatures warm up again. Normally behind a system like this our temperatures will drop off for a few days, but not in this case. Southwesterly winds will continue and temperatures should remain mild through the end of the work week. We should be in the mid and upper 50s for Southern New England, with upper 40s and low 50s for Northern New England. There looks to be some unsettled conditions around on Friday. Should be in the form of rain right now and it most likely will be centered over Northern New England and Southern Quebec. A secondary disturbance will push in on Saturday bringing rain to just about everyone. Behind that second disturbance our temperatures will cool down for the second half of the weekend and into early next week.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K
RIP Rick Martin #7
Today: Cloudy, slight chance of a rain or snow showers, highs in the upper 30s south, low to mid 30s north.
Tonight: Decreasing cloudiness, lows in 25-30 south, ranging from the single digits to the teens north.
Tomorrow: Lots of sunshine, highs low to mid 40s for all of New England.
Tomorrow night: Clouds move back in, chance of snow showers towards dawn, lows upper 20s to low 30s south, near 20 north,
Wednesday: Snow showers possible early, transitioning to rain in Southern and Central New England, staying snow north. Highs in low 40s south, mid and upper 30s north.
Discussion:
There is an upper level low pressure system that is moving through New England today that is causing all the cloudiness. It might also kick off a few rain or snow showers, nothing substantial however. As the upper level low moves to the east tonight, our skies will clear. This will allow temperatures to get much colder than they have over the last few nights. Many places will be below freezing for a first time in a couple of days. We will see lots of sunshine which will send temperatures back up tomorrow, making for a pleasant day. It will be short lived as a fast moving surface low will push into the region on Wednesday. Depending on timing of this system, there may be some snow for Southern and Central New England. As we get into the daylight hours, temperatures will climb and change the snow over to rain. Further north in Northern New England, the temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere will support snow. Accumulations will be light in Northern New England as the bulk of the precipitation should fall over Southern New England.
After this storm system pulls away, we will see our temperatures warm up again. Normally behind a system like this our temperatures will drop off for a few days, but not in this case. Southwesterly winds will continue and temperatures should remain mild through the end of the work week. We should be in the mid and upper 50s for Southern New England, with upper 40s and low 50s for Northern New England. There looks to be some unsettled conditions around on Friday. Should be in the form of rain right now and it most likely will be centered over Northern New England and Southern Quebec. A secondary disturbance will push in on Saturday bringing rain to just about everyone. Behind that second disturbance our temperatures will cool down for the second half of the weekend and into early next week.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K
RIP Rick Martin #7
Friday, March 11, 2011
Japan Earthquake
I don't have a whole lot to say that you probably already haven't heard. Needless to say, this is a devastating tragedy and the images and videos coming out of the country is hard to watch, but amazing at the same time.
We have become such a "need to know now" populace that many many people watched the Tsunami happen live on international television. Social media outlets like Facebook and Twitter have become the go to source for information. While this is convenient, it also goes again the ideal of true journalism. The majority of what you read on twitter, might be pure garbage or comes from an unreliable source. There is an upside to this however. Just for example, word can be passed along quickly about shelters or messages from loved ones.
It makes it hard to believe we ever lived in a time where information was hard to come by, as know you can't get away from it, nor do you want for fear of not being included. If you have a little knowledge, you can access just about anything from anywhere know. You can know what you favorite celebrity had for breakfast...
Anyway, back to this event. An earthquake of this magnitude creates other side effects, for instance the tsunami. After all the destruction from the earthquake, the waters rose and began pushing all that debris, causing further damage. It is going to take a long time for Northern Japan to recover from this and it may never be the same. As for the strength of the earthquake. 8.9 is very very strong. I wouldn't be surprised to hear reports from some scientists that say that this quake might have slightly shifted the angle of the Earth's axis, similar to earthquake from Indonesia a few years back.
The effects that will be felt across the Pacific, when the tsunami reaches the Western coast of North America will be minor. The reports I have seen from Hawaii only report a 7 foot rise in water levels. There maybe a few spots that deal with some minor damage, in extreme low lying areas, but for the most part it will go generally unnoticed. This should be used a test of the emergency systems along the west coast, because a major tsunami could strike.
Stepping down from my soap box. More weather information later on.
-Jon K.
We have become such a "need to know now" populace that many many people watched the Tsunami happen live on international television. Social media outlets like Facebook and Twitter have become the go to source for information. While this is convenient, it also goes again the ideal of true journalism. The majority of what you read on twitter, might be pure garbage or comes from an unreliable source. There is an upside to this however. Just for example, word can be passed along quickly about shelters or messages from loved ones.
It makes it hard to believe we ever lived in a time where information was hard to come by, as know you can't get away from it, nor do you want for fear of not being included. If you have a little knowledge, you can access just about anything from anywhere know. You can know what you favorite celebrity had for breakfast...
Anyway, back to this event. An earthquake of this magnitude creates other side effects, for instance the tsunami. After all the destruction from the earthquake, the waters rose and began pushing all that debris, causing further damage. It is going to take a long time for Northern Japan to recover from this and it may never be the same. As for the strength of the earthquake. 8.9 is very very strong. I wouldn't be surprised to hear reports from some scientists that say that this quake might have slightly shifted the angle of the Earth's axis, similar to earthquake from Indonesia a few years back.
The effects that will be felt across the Pacific, when the tsunami reaches the Western coast of North America will be minor. The reports I have seen from Hawaii only report a 7 foot rise in water levels. There maybe a few spots that deal with some minor damage, in extreme low lying areas, but for the most part it will go generally unnoticed. This should be used a test of the emergency systems along the west coast, because a major tsunami could strike.
Stepping down from my soap box. More weather information later on.
-Jon K.
Heavy rain
Heavy rain is on its way for today, followed by a quiet and mild weekend.
Today: Rain, heavy at times between 10 AM and 4 PM. Highs in the low to mid 50s south, 40s north.
Tonight: Slight chance of a rain or snow shower, becoming partly cloudy, lows near 30 south, 20s north.
Tomorrow: Partial sunshine, slight chance of a snow shower in the morning, highs low to mid 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy, lows in the 30s south, 20s north.
Sunday: Mainly sunny, highs in the upper 40s south, low 40s north.
Discussion: The main area of precipitation will rotate through New England today, it is already affecting Western New England. It won't be long before Eastern Southern New England sees the steady moderate to heavy rain. There is a slight chance a few rumbles of thunder might be heard in the heavier downpours. I'm expecting rainfall amounts between 0.5" and 1.5" of rain today. Flooding still remains a concern, but this threat should be isolated as we shouldn't see widespread rain amounts over 1".
Once the rain moves out later today our skies should clear a bit overnight. There is still a slight chance of a stray shower or snow shower overnight, especially in central and northern New England. Temperatures will drop off to near or below freezing tonight. Behind this low pressure system we won't see a significant drop off in temperatures. They will gradually go down through the weekend into the start of the work week.
I'll have a bit more later, including some info on the Tsunami warnings for the West Coast of North America. I'm currently watching what is happening in Hawaii right now.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Rain, heavy at times between 10 AM and 4 PM. Highs in the low to mid 50s south, 40s north.
Tonight: Slight chance of a rain or snow shower, becoming partly cloudy, lows near 30 south, 20s north.
Tomorrow: Partial sunshine, slight chance of a snow shower in the morning, highs low to mid 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy, lows in the 30s south, 20s north.
Sunday: Mainly sunny, highs in the upper 40s south, low 40s north.
Discussion: The main area of precipitation will rotate through New England today, it is already affecting Western New England. It won't be long before Eastern Southern New England sees the steady moderate to heavy rain. There is a slight chance a few rumbles of thunder might be heard in the heavier downpours. I'm expecting rainfall amounts between 0.5" and 1.5" of rain today. Flooding still remains a concern, but this threat should be isolated as we shouldn't see widespread rain amounts over 1".
Once the rain moves out later today our skies should clear a bit overnight. There is still a slight chance of a stray shower or snow shower overnight, especially in central and northern New England. Temperatures will drop off to near or below freezing tonight. Behind this low pressure system we won't see a significant drop off in temperatures. They will gradually go down through the weekend into the start of the work week.
I'll have a bit more later, including some info on the Tsunami warnings for the West Coast of North America. I'm currently watching what is happening in Hawaii right now.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Tricky forecast
The storm that currently is affecting parts of New England has been tricky to figure out as it has changed again, probably for the better.
Today: Rain/snow showers possible, rain south, snow north. Looks like any snow won't last long or be as heavy, 1-3 inches possible in far northern New England. Highs near 40 south, mid 30s north.
Tonight: Rain at times south, changing from snow to rain north. Temperatures rising a few degrees overnight.
Tomorrow: Periods of rain, maybe a few rumbles of thunder in the afternoon, highs in mid 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.
Tomorrow night: Rain ends, maybe mixing with snow north, lows in the mid and upper 30s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of a snow shower in the morning, then slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s south, in the 40s north.
Discussion:
Looking at the radar this morning, you would think that it should be precipitating everywhere. However, this is not the case as there is a lot of dry air aloft that is evaporating the precipitation before it reaches the ground. Eventually the dry layer aloft will become moist, allowing that precipitation to reach the ground. This will happen when the second wave of precipitation arrives late today and tonight. By this time, all of southern New England will be warm enough to support rain. The transition to all rain may hold off until around sunrise on Friday morning for Northern New England, particularly Northern New Hampshire and Maine.
I expect the rain to be more scattered and showery in nature tonight and tomorrow morning with steadier rain moving in on Friday afternoon as the cold front pushes through the region. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few lightning strikes and hear a few rumbles of thunder in some of the heavier rain. There are going to be a few spots that pick up over an inch of rain in a short period of time, but this looks pretty isolated. The isolated nature of the heavier rain should reduce the flooding threat slightly. However, all the rivers and streams of New England and still swollen, so any additional rain will only make matters worse. So once again, be ready for some flooding late on Friday into Saturday.
Looking into this weekend, conditions should be generally dry, save for a few scattered showers on Saturday. Temperatures will drop off late in the weekend as colder air moves in behind the storm system currently closing in on the region. Don't worry though, the chill won't be frigid and won't last long. Our winds will change around to a more southerly direction early next week and then the warm up will begin again. By the end of next week I expect it to be very mild here in New England.
I'll update as necessary today, thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Rain/snow showers possible, rain south, snow north. Looks like any snow won't last long or be as heavy, 1-3 inches possible in far northern New England. Highs near 40 south, mid 30s north.
Tonight: Rain at times south, changing from snow to rain north. Temperatures rising a few degrees overnight.
Tomorrow: Periods of rain, maybe a few rumbles of thunder in the afternoon, highs in mid 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.
Tomorrow night: Rain ends, maybe mixing with snow north, lows in the mid and upper 30s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of a snow shower in the morning, then slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s south, in the 40s north.
Discussion:
Looking at the radar this morning, you would think that it should be precipitating everywhere. However, this is not the case as there is a lot of dry air aloft that is evaporating the precipitation before it reaches the ground. Eventually the dry layer aloft will become moist, allowing that precipitation to reach the ground. This will happen when the second wave of precipitation arrives late today and tonight. By this time, all of southern New England will be warm enough to support rain. The transition to all rain may hold off until around sunrise on Friday morning for Northern New England, particularly Northern New Hampshire and Maine.
I expect the rain to be more scattered and showery in nature tonight and tomorrow morning with steadier rain moving in on Friday afternoon as the cold front pushes through the region. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few lightning strikes and hear a few rumbles of thunder in some of the heavier rain. There are going to be a few spots that pick up over an inch of rain in a short period of time, but this looks pretty isolated. The isolated nature of the heavier rain should reduce the flooding threat slightly. However, all the rivers and streams of New England and still swollen, so any additional rain will only make matters worse. So once again, be ready for some flooding late on Friday into Saturday.
Looking into this weekend, conditions should be generally dry, save for a few scattered showers on Saturday. Temperatures will drop off late in the weekend as colder air moves in behind the storm system currently closing in on the region. Don't worry though, the chill won't be frigid and won't last long. Our winds will change around to a more southerly direction early next week and then the warm up will begin again. By the end of next week I expect it to be very mild here in New England.
I'll update as necessary today, thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Another messy storm coming...
Another slow moving low pressure system will affect New England for an extended period of time over the next few days.
Today: Increasing clouds, cooler than yesterday, highs in the mid and upper 30s south, low 30s north.
Tonight: Snow develops in Western Northern New England, slight chance of snow in Southern New England, otherwise cloudy, lows upper 20s to near 30 south, teens and low 20s north. 2-4 inches possible in North Central VT.
Tomorrow: Chance of a rain/snow mix in Southern New England, snow possible in Central and Northern New England. Accumulations of 4-8 inches in VT and Northern NH. Highs low 40s south, 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Steadier precipitation develops, rain south, staying snow north of Laconia, NH, lows in the mid and upper 30s south, upper 20s to low 30s north. Additional light accumulations possible.
Friday: Rain, heavy at times, places that were snow should change over to rain. Highs 50s south, 40s north.
Discussion:
Clouds are already making their way into New England today ahead of a low pressure system that will affect our weather for Thursday through Friday night. This center of the low pressure system will dive down to West Virginia tomorrow morning and then start moving into the Eastern Great Lakes. This motion will keep the majority of the preciptation away from New England until Thursday night. However, the leading edge of the rain and snow will begin to affect Western New England, particularly VT starting tonight and continuing tomorrow. Eastern New England won't really see much precipitation until Thursday night as the system won't be making an eastward push until then.
There will be some significant snow occurring in parts of the region, I've tried to highlight this in the forecast periods above. Accumulating snow will be restricted to VT and Northern New Hampshire for the most part. As the storm gets closer on Thursday night, warmer air will begin to over run the region and by Friday mid-morning, all locations should change over to rain. Flooding will once again be a concern as the rain is expected to be heavy at times. Still some question as to where the most rain will fall, should have more info on this tomorrow. Regardless, adding another inch or so of rain to already swollen rivers and additional melting, rivers will rise again.
The low pressure system will move to the northeast on Saturday and we should see clearing skies and slightly cooler temperatures. I don't expect they will drop off too far, but highs will be back to the 30s and 40s through the weekend and into early next week. Late next week looks like it could be absolutely wonderful. High pressure builds in and we'll have a few days of southwesterly winds, 70 degrees may be a distinct possibility, time will tell.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Increasing clouds, cooler than yesterday, highs in the mid and upper 30s south, low 30s north.
Tonight: Snow develops in Western Northern New England, slight chance of snow in Southern New England, otherwise cloudy, lows upper 20s to near 30 south, teens and low 20s north. 2-4 inches possible in North Central VT.
Tomorrow: Chance of a rain/snow mix in Southern New England, snow possible in Central and Northern New England. Accumulations of 4-8 inches in VT and Northern NH. Highs low 40s south, 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Steadier precipitation develops, rain south, staying snow north of Laconia, NH, lows in the mid and upper 30s south, upper 20s to low 30s north. Additional light accumulations possible.
Friday: Rain, heavy at times, places that were snow should change over to rain. Highs 50s south, 40s north.
Discussion:
Clouds are already making their way into New England today ahead of a low pressure system that will affect our weather for Thursday through Friday night. This center of the low pressure system will dive down to West Virginia tomorrow morning and then start moving into the Eastern Great Lakes. This motion will keep the majority of the preciptation away from New England until Thursday night. However, the leading edge of the rain and snow will begin to affect Western New England, particularly VT starting tonight and continuing tomorrow. Eastern New England won't really see much precipitation until Thursday night as the system won't be making an eastward push until then.
There will be some significant snow occurring in parts of the region, I've tried to highlight this in the forecast periods above. Accumulating snow will be restricted to VT and Northern New Hampshire for the most part. As the storm gets closer on Thursday night, warmer air will begin to over run the region and by Friday mid-morning, all locations should change over to rain. Flooding will once again be a concern as the rain is expected to be heavy at times. Still some question as to where the most rain will fall, should have more info on this tomorrow. Regardless, adding another inch or so of rain to already swollen rivers and additional melting, rivers will rise again.
The low pressure system will move to the northeast on Saturday and we should see clearing skies and slightly cooler temperatures. I don't expect they will drop off too far, but highs will be back to the 30s and 40s through the weekend and into early next week. Late next week looks like it could be absolutely wonderful. High pressure builds in and we'll have a few days of southwesterly winds, 70 degrees may be a distinct possibility, time will tell.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Dry for now
Flood warnings remain in effect for several locations in New England as rivers are expected to crest until Wednesday or Thursday.
Today: Mainly sunny, breezy, highs upper 30s to low 40s south, in the 30s north.
Tonight: Clear, cold, lows 20s south, a wider range of lows north, teens in most spots with some place dropping below 0.
Tomorrow: Plenty of sunshine, highs in the upper 30s south, low to mid 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds, lows in the mid teens north, 20s south.
Thursday: Snow develops, changing to rain south, staying snow or a wintry mix north of Concord, accumulation likely. Highs around 40 south, low to mid 30s north.
Discussion: Conditions will remain quiet through today and tomorrow as high pressure is in control. Daytime highs will be seasonable, in the 30s to low 40s across the region. Tomorrow, the high pressure system will shift offshore as a low pressure system starts to move in from the Central US. This will prove to be another tricky storm, as it will bring a wide variety of precipitation to New England. Right now, the forecast models are still showing a spread in what is going to happen, but I have to make a decision and I feel fairly confident at this point. It's a bit of a change from yesterday as it looks like Northern New England may end up staying all snow or a wintry mix for the majority of this event. This will be another prolonged event, because once the low pressure system reaches the Eastern US, it will slow down. We'll see precipitation develop during the day on Thursday. Starting as snow nearly everywhere, then changing quickly over to rain in Southern New England. Central New England will hold onto snow or a wintry mix slightly longer before changing over. It looks like north of Concord, NH will stay with a wintry type of precipitation into Friday morning. By that time, it looks like nearly all of New England will have temperatures aloft warm enough to support rain. However, surface temperatures may be cool enough to cause sleet or freezing rain. Again, it looks like Northern New England will take the brunt of this receiving a plowable snow and possibly ice accretion.
This will be somewhat of a two phase storm, what we see on Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a break and then another round of what SHOULD be rain for nearly everyone, with a few pockets of a wintry mix. We may have to worry about flooding again this weekend, depending on where the heaviest rain falls. Right now most of the models are showing the heaviest rain in the Hudson Valley of NY, but I expect this to waver over the next few days.
Further out, it looks like the weekend will be cold and generally quiet, though a few flurries can't be ruled out at this point. So still no spring warmth in the next 5 to 7 days and beyond that doesn't look all that promising either....trust me, I'm as ready for Spring as you are.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Mainly sunny, breezy, highs upper 30s to low 40s south, in the 30s north.
Tonight: Clear, cold, lows 20s south, a wider range of lows north, teens in most spots with some place dropping below 0.
Tomorrow: Plenty of sunshine, highs in the upper 30s south, low to mid 30s north.
Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds, lows in the mid teens north, 20s south.
Thursday: Snow develops, changing to rain south, staying snow or a wintry mix north of Concord, accumulation likely. Highs around 40 south, low to mid 30s north.
Discussion: Conditions will remain quiet through today and tomorrow as high pressure is in control. Daytime highs will be seasonable, in the 30s to low 40s across the region. Tomorrow, the high pressure system will shift offshore as a low pressure system starts to move in from the Central US. This will prove to be another tricky storm, as it will bring a wide variety of precipitation to New England. Right now, the forecast models are still showing a spread in what is going to happen, but I have to make a decision and I feel fairly confident at this point. It's a bit of a change from yesterday as it looks like Northern New England may end up staying all snow or a wintry mix for the majority of this event. This will be another prolonged event, because once the low pressure system reaches the Eastern US, it will slow down. We'll see precipitation develop during the day on Thursday. Starting as snow nearly everywhere, then changing quickly over to rain in Southern New England. Central New England will hold onto snow or a wintry mix slightly longer before changing over. It looks like north of Concord, NH will stay with a wintry type of precipitation into Friday morning. By that time, it looks like nearly all of New England will have temperatures aloft warm enough to support rain. However, surface temperatures may be cool enough to cause sleet or freezing rain. Again, it looks like Northern New England will take the brunt of this receiving a plowable snow and possibly ice accretion.
This will be somewhat of a two phase storm, what we see on Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a break and then another round of what SHOULD be rain for nearly everyone, with a few pockets of a wintry mix. We may have to worry about flooding again this weekend, depending on where the heaviest rain falls. Right now most of the models are showing the heaviest rain in the Hudson Valley of NY, but I expect this to waver over the next few days.
Further out, it looks like the weekend will be cold and generally quiet, though a few flurries can't be ruled out at this point. So still no spring warmth in the next 5 to 7 days and beyond that doesn't look all that promising either....trust me, I'm as ready for Spring as you are.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Storm ending, flooding still a concern
Even though the storm is pulling away, flooding will remain possible into Wednesday.
If you are interested in seeing snow totals so far, click here, its an interactive map that will let you move around and zoom in and out. The amounts are impressive, especially in Upstate NY.
Also, if you want to see current river levels and forecasts, click here for Southern New England and here for Central and Northern New England. You could click on the map to view the rivers levels and forecasts.
Flood Watches and Warnings are currently in effect for several locations in Southern New England. Winter Storm Warnings continue into the middle of day.
Today: Rain/snow/sleet comes to an end. Temperatures remain steady or dropping slowing through the day. Highs mid 20s north, mid 30s south.
Tonight: Decreasing clouds, cold, lows near 0 north, teens to low 20s south.
Tomorrow: Lots of sunshine, highs in the low to mid 40s south, upper 20s to low 30s north.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, highs upper 30s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.
Discussion:
The low pressure system that brought all the unsettled weather last night is continuing to affect New England, particularly in Central and Northern New England. Snow and sleet is still falling in VT, NH and Maine. The precipitation will hang on the longest in Maine, coming to an end late this afternoon. Look for the snow to taper off in VT by Noon and mid afternoon in NH. Additional accumulations are expected on the order of 3-6 inches in VT and NH, with another 6-10 inches in Maine with isolated higher amounts.
If you checked out the link above related to river forecasts, you would have seen that the flooding threat will continue into Wednesday. It wasn't just the rain last night that is the main cause of flooding, it will be the runoff from melting snow that is still making it's way into the rivers of New England. This is a slower process. What the rain did do, is raise the river levels slightly and then when you add the runoff, the river levels are expected to shoot up higher. So if you live near a river, keep a close eye on it and prepare as best you can. Chances are, you've dealt with this before and know how to prepare.
As the storm pulls away tonight, the cloudiness will go with it and our skies will clear. This will allow temperatures to fall off even more as well. Places that received new snowfall will see the coldest overnight readings, some places getting down to near 0. High pressure will start to build in tomorrow and will keep our weather quiet into the day on Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler during the middle of the week, then gradually warm up again.
The warm up begins ahead of another low pressure system that should pass off to our west late in the week. This looks like it will be rain for nearly everyone this time, but this could obviously could change. I'll have to keep an eye on this, but the storm we are currently getting looked like rain for everyone at first as well, that definitely wasn't the case.
That's all for now. Post any questions you might have below in the comments section, I'll answer as I have time today. Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
If you are interested in seeing snow totals so far, click here, its an interactive map that will let you move around and zoom in and out. The amounts are impressive, especially in Upstate NY.
Also, if you want to see current river levels and forecasts, click here for Southern New England and here for Central and Northern New England. You could click on the map to view the rivers levels and forecasts.
Flood Watches and Warnings are currently in effect for several locations in Southern New England. Winter Storm Warnings continue into the middle of day.
Today: Rain/snow/sleet comes to an end. Temperatures remain steady or dropping slowing through the day. Highs mid 20s north, mid 30s south.
Tonight: Decreasing clouds, cold, lows near 0 north, teens to low 20s south.
Tomorrow: Lots of sunshine, highs in the low to mid 40s south, upper 20s to low 30s north.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, highs upper 30s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.
Discussion:
The low pressure system that brought all the unsettled weather last night is continuing to affect New England, particularly in Central and Northern New England. Snow and sleet is still falling in VT, NH and Maine. The precipitation will hang on the longest in Maine, coming to an end late this afternoon. Look for the snow to taper off in VT by Noon and mid afternoon in NH. Additional accumulations are expected on the order of 3-6 inches in VT and NH, with another 6-10 inches in Maine with isolated higher amounts.
If you checked out the link above related to river forecasts, you would have seen that the flooding threat will continue into Wednesday. It wasn't just the rain last night that is the main cause of flooding, it will be the runoff from melting snow that is still making it's way into the rivers of New England. This is a slower process. What the rain did do, is raise the river levels slightly and then when you add the runoff, the river levels are expected to shoot up higher. So if you live near a river, keep a close eye on it and prepare as best you can. Chances are, you've dealt with this before and know how to prepare.
As the storm pulls away tonight, the cloudiness will go with it and our skies will clear. This will allow temperatures to fall off even more as well. Places that received new snowfall will see the coldest overnight readings, some places getting down to near 0. High pressure will start to build in tomorrow and will keep our weather quiet into the day on Thursday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler during the middle of the week, then gradually warm up again.
The warm up begins ahead of another low pressure system that should pass off to our west late in the week. This looks like it will be rain for nearly everyone this time, but this could obviously could change. I'll have to keep an eye on this, but the storm we are currently getting looked like rain for everyone at first as well, that definitely wasn't the case.
That's all for now. Post any questions you might have below in the comments section, I'll answer as I have time today. Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Rain and snow cometh
An extreme moist storm system is already affecting New England and will continue to into the day on Monday.
Flood watch in effect for Southern New England. Winter Storm Warning for Northern VT and Northern NH and into most of Maine.
Today: Rain, heavy at times. Transitioning to snow north later in the afternoon north. Highs in the 50s south, 40s north with temperatures falling throughout the day.
Tonight: Rain continues, heavy at times, snow pushes further south across Northern New England. Accumulations of 6-12 inches overnight. Lows in the 20s north, 40s south.
Tomorrow: Rain and snow comes to an end in the afternoon. Daytime highs will occur in the morning with temperatures falling or holding steady through the day, 40s south, upper 20s to low 30s north. Total accumulations of 20-30 inches, see image below.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cooler, highs upper 30s to near 40 south, 20s and 30s north.
Discussion: A large and complex low pressure system is approaching the region. This will bring heavy rain and heavy snow later today and tonight. It is already raining in some places, particularly in Central and Northern New England. The rain will overspread all areas this afternoon and become heavy at times. The center of the low pressure system will essentially pass directly over New England tomorrow and it get closer, colder air will start moving in. This will change over the precipitation to a wintry mix and then to all snow. This will start in northwestern New England first and then push southeastward. Eventually the snow spread all the way down into Southern VT, Western MA and Southwestern NH. There is going to be significant accumulations with this storm in Northern and Central New England, as much as 20 to 30 inches. There is so much moisture available and with the cold air coming in, its going to create a lot of heavy, wet snow. I'll include a forecast snow total image below, pulled directly from a forecast model. Unfortunately the complexity of the forecasted amounts is too difficult to depict using MS Paint.
Total liquid equivalent amounts will range from 1.5 to 4 inches. That is a lot of water and as a result, flood watches are in effect for places that are going to see strictly rain, Southern New England. Low lying areas and where there is poor drainage, I expect to see some flooding. Also, some of the smaller streams and rivers might spill their banks. The worst of the flooding will likely occur on Monday.
Beyond tomorrow, conditions will quiet down for a few days with seasonable temperatures. Our next storm system will affect the region late in the week and looks like mainly a rain event right now.
Here is the forecast snow totals:
Flood watch in effect for Southern New England. Winter Storm Warning for Northern VT and Northern NH and into most of Maine.
Today: Rain, heavy at times. Transitioning to snow north later in the afternoon north. Highs in the 50s south, 40s north with temperatures falling throughout the day.
Tonight: Rain continues, heavy at times, snow pushes further south across Northern New England. Accumulations of 6-12 inches overnight. Lows in the 20s north, 40s south.
Tomorrow: Rain and snow comes to an end in the afternoon. Daytime highs will occur in the morning with temperatures falling or holding steady through the day, 40s south, upper 20s to low 30s north. Total accumulations of 20-30 inches, see image below.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cooler, highs upper 30s to near 40 south, 20s and 30s north.
Discussion: A large and complex low pressure system is approaching the region. This will bring heavy rain and heavy snow later today and tonight. It is already raining in some places, particularly in Central and Northern New England. The rain will overspread all areas this afternoon and become heavy at times. The center of the low pressure system will essentially pass directly over New England tomorrow and it get closer, colder air will start moving in. This will change over the precipitation to a wintry mix and then to all snow. This will start in northwestern New England first and then push southeastward. Eventually the snow spread all the way down into Southern VT, Western MA and Southwestern NH. There is going to be significant accumulations with this storm in Northern and Central New England, as much as 20 to 30 inches. There is so much moisture available and with the cold air coming in, its going to create a lot of heavy, wet snow. I'll include a forecast snow total image below, pulled directly from a forecast model. Unfortunately the complexity of the forecasted amounts is too difficult to depict using MS Paint.
Total liquid equivalent amounts will range from 1.5 to 4 inches. That is a lot of water and as a result, flood watches are in effect for places that are going to see strictly rain, Southern New England. Low lying areas and where there is poor drainage, I expect to see some flooding. Also, some of the smaller streams and rivers might spill their banks. The worst of the flooding will likely occur on Monday.
Beyond tomorrow, conditions will quiet down for a few days with seasonable temperatures. Our next storm system will affect the region late in the week and looks like mainly a rain event right now.
Here is the forecast snow totals:
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Unsettled but mild
A large and moist low pressure system will bring rain and warmer temperatures this weekend.
Today: Mainly cloudy, a few breaks of sun possible, chance of a wintry mix in the morning, changing to rain showers by 9 AM south, midday north. Highs 42-47 in Southern New England, 35-40 in Central and Northern New England.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of rain showers south, wintry mix north. Lows near 40 south, low to mid 30s north.
Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy again, warmer with rain developing in the afternoon, becoming steady in the evening, highs in the 50s south, upper 40s north. Rain will change to snow north overnight on Sunday night.
Monday: Rain, mixed with snow north, wintry mix in SNH and Central MA comes to an end in the morning. Breezy and cooler. Highs near 40 south, mid and upper 30s north. 3 to 6 inches of snow possible for Northern VT and Northen NH.
The why and how:
The low pressure system that is approaching is pushing a warm front through the region this morning, this is what kicked off the precipitation. There were a few snow showers in Central and Northern New England and a light wintry mix in Southern New England. This should push north of the region by the early afternoon. Our best chance of seeing any sun this afternoon as a I see a few breaks in the clouds over Eastern PA and NJ currently. Any sun we see will be isolated and short lived unforuntately.
This low pressure system is creeping eastward and this will keep the majority of the precipitation will hold off until later in the day on Sunday. Temperatures will be warm enough by then for everyone to see rain. The downside to this is the threat of the flooding for nearly all of New England. There still looks like there will some spots that could see 2+ inches of rain. I'm feeling more confident that this will happen somewhere in Central or Southern New England. As this storm system gets closer, some cold air will start to work in, especially in far northern VT and NH. This transition will begin overnight on Sunday. Everyone should start off with rain, expect maybe extreme Northwestern VT, around Burlington. As ths storm moves through, the rain/snow line will push eastward, making it as far as the NH border down into Central MA before the precipitation moves out. Accumulations of 3-6 inches are possible in Northern VT/NH, 2-4 in Central VT and NH, with little or no accumulation in Central MA and Southern NH. Some forecast models are predicting much, much more snow than I have forecast currently. I will re-evaluate tomorrow. Central and Northern Maine could get hammered by this storm, potentially seeing over 2 feet of snow.
Flooding still remains a concern. So far the National Weather Service has not issued any Flood Watches for New England, but I expect some to be issued later today. If you have storm drains in front of your house that are covered with ice, today might be a good day to clean that ice off if possible.
Long range:
Beyond Monday's storm, temperatures will be seasonable for a couple of days before warming back up again. Look for another storm system late next week, looks like mostly rain at this point.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon the weatherman
Today: Mainly cloudy, a few breaks of sun possible, chance of a wintry mix in the morning, changing to rain showers by 9 AM south, midday north. Highs 42-47 in Southern New England, 35-40 in Central and Northern New England.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of rain showers south, wintry mix north. Lows near 40 south, low to mid 30s north.
Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy again, warmer with rain developing in the afternoon, becoming steady in the evening, highs in the 50s south, upper 40s north. Rain will change to snow north overnight on Sunday night.
Monday: Rain, mixed with snow north, wintry mix in SNH and Central MA comes to an end in the morning. Breezy and cooler. Highs near 40 south, mid and upper 30s north. 3 to 6 inches of snow possible for Northern VT and Northen NH.
The why and how:
The low pressure system that is approaching is pushing a warm front through the region this morning, this is what kicked off the precipitation. There were a few snow showers in Central and Northern New England and a light wintry mix in Southern New England. This should push north of the region by the early afternoon. Our best chance of seeing any sun this afternoon as a I see a few breaks in the clouds over Eastern PA and NJ currently. Any sun we see will be isolated and short lived unforuntately.
This low pressure system is creeping eastward and this will keep the majority of the precipitation will hold off until later in the day on Sunday. Temperatures will be warm enough by then for everyone to see rain. The downside to this is the threat of the flooding for nearly all of New England. There still looks like there will some spots that could see 2+ inches of rain. I'm feeling more confident that this will happen somewhere in Central or Southern New England. As this storm system gets closer, some cold air will start to work in, especially in far northern VT and NH. This transition will begin overnight on Sunday. Everyone should start off with rain, expect maybe extreme Northwestern VT, around Burlington. As ths storm moves through, the rain/snow line will push eastward, making it as far as the NH border down into Central MA before the precipitation moves out. Accumulations of 3-6 inches are possible in Northern VT/NH, 2-4 in Central VT and NH, with little or no accumulation in Central MA and Southern NH. Some forecast models are predicting much, much more snow than I have forecast currently. I will re-evaluate tomorrow. Central and Northern Maine could get hammered by this storm, potentially seeing over 2 feet of snow.
Flooding still remains a concern. So far the National Weather Service has not issued any Flood Watches for New England, but I expect some to be issued later today. If you have storm drains in front of your house that are covered with ice, today might be a good day to clean that ice off if possible.
Long range:
Beyond Monday's storm, temperatures will be seasonable for a couple of days before warming back up again. Look for another storm system late next week, looks like mostly rain at this point.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon the weatherman
Friday, March 4, 2011
Here comes the "warmth"
A chilly start this morning, just a quick check shows a few places that got down to -20. However, the warm air is already making its push in as those places have already climbed above 0 degrees. That's quite a swing in a just few hours.
Anyway, high pressure will stay in control today as it slides offshore. This will turn our winds around to the southwest, helping to usher in the warmer air. Temperatures will moderate nicely today, getting close to 30 in Northern and Central New England, climbing well into the 30s in Southern New England. Look for plenty of sunshine for most of the day with a few high clouds moving in throughout the day.
This weekend will prove to be interesting. A large, complex low pressure system is organizing in the Central United States. This will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to bring quite a bit of rain to the Ohio Valley, Upstate NY and New England. Flood watches have already been posted for some spots in Ohio, PA and Western NY and I would imagine more watches will be issued today for Central NY into the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley of NY.
This storm system will be moving very slowly as the upper level winds will be nearly parallel to the surface front. This means there won't be much west to east push of the storm system. It won't be until Sunday that a piece of energy moves out of Western Canada that will give this storm system a push to move it into New England. So, given the slow movement, New England should stay generally dry until later in the day on Sunday. We should have a decent amount of sunshine on Saturday, which should kick temperatures well into the 40s for most locations, wouldn't be surprised to see a few spots in Southern New England reach 50 degrees.
Temperatures on Sunday should be a bit warmer, especially if we see a few hours of sunshine. That will be the big question, how much sun will we see, as that storm will be on our door step. Regardless, Southern New England should easily widespread 50s and 40s elsewhere. If we see more sun that I currently expect, 60s may be possible for SNE. The rain should hold off until the late afternoon, maybe even until after the sun goes down. The location of where the heaviest rain will fall still remains a mystery. This morning it appears that the heaviest will fall in Central and Northern New England. Forecast rainfall totals still look impressive with a large area of 2+ inches of rain. This combined with the amount of liquid remaining in the snow pack will keep flooding possibilities high. Smaller rivers and streams are at the highest risk because they are likely frozen right now and as the ice breaks up, ice dams may develop.
The majority of the precipitation should fall during the day on Monday, with the possibility of some mixing in Northern New England as the cold air starts to make a return. Southern and Central New England should see strictly rain from this system.
Beyond Monday we will see temperatures return to seasonable levels, with another warm up throughout the week and another rain event next Friday.
I'll have more throughout the weekend on this storm and the potential for flooding.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Anyway, high pressure will stay in control today as it slides offshore. This will turn our winds around to the southwest, helping to usher in the warmer air. Temperatures will moderate nicely today, getting close to 30 in Northern and Central New England, climbing well into the 30s in Southern New England. Look for plenty of sunshine for most of the day with a few high clouds moving in throughout the day.
This weekend will prove to be interesting. A large, complex low pressure system is organizing in the Central United States. This will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to bring quite a bit of rain to the Ohio Valley, Upstate NY and New England. Flood watches have already been posted for some spots in Ohio, PA and Western NY and I would imagine more watches will be issued today for Central NY into the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley of NY.
This storm system will be moving very slowly as the upper level winds will be nearly parallel to the surface front. This means there won't be much west to east push of the storm system. It won't be until Sunday that a piece of energy moves out of Western Canada that will give this storm system a push to move it into New England. So, given the slow movement, New England should stay generally dry until later in the day on Sunday. We should have a decent amount of sunshine on Saturday, which should kick temperatures well into the 40s for most locations, wouldn't be surprised to see a few spots in Southern New England reach 50 degrees.
Temperatures on Sunday should be a bit warmer, especially if we see a few hours of sunshine. That will be the big question, how much sun will we see, as that storm will be on our door step. Regardless, Southern New England should easily widespread 50s and 40s elsewhere. If we see more sun that I currently expect, 60s may be possible for SNE. The rain should hold off until the late afternoon, maybe even until after the sun goes down. The location of where the heaviest rain will fall still remains a mystery. This morning it appears that the heaviest will fall in Central and Northern New England. Forecast rainfall totals still look impressive with a large area of 2+ inches of rain. This combined with the amount of liquid remaining in the snow pack will keep flooding possibilities high. Smaller rivers and streams are at the highest risk because they are likely frozen right now and as the ice breaks up, ice dams may develop.
The majority of the precipitation should fall during the day on Monday, with the possibility of some mixing in Northern New England as the cold air starts to make a return. Southern and Central New England should see strictly rain from this system.
Beyond Monday we will see temperatures return to seasonable levels, with another warm up throughout the week and another rain event next Friday.
I'll have more throughout the weekend on this storm and the potential for flooding.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Cold now, milder air enroute
A frigid start this morning followed by an even colder morning coming up tomorrow.
High pressure is in full control of New England this morning and this will remain the case through the day tomorrow. Temperatures this morning could have gotten colder, but there was enough of a breeze to keep the air mixed and temperatures up slightly. The same wind is resulting in below zero wind chills however. Daytime highs will be in the teens and low 20s and with the wind, wind chills values will remain very cold. Be careful if you are going to be outdoors for an extended period of time today.
The winds will die down tonight, this combined with the same cold air mass overhead will cause temperatures to plummet tonight. Looking at some of the temperature guidance for tomorrow morning, it looks like some spots will fall way, way below zero. This will likely happen in the typical cold spots of Northern and Central New England, especially in valleys. For example, the low temperature forecast for Berlin, NH is -30 for Friday morning. Needless to say, be prepared for a very cold start. We will have another day of sunshine, for the most part, a few clouds will likely move in throughout the day. Temperatures will climb to the upper 20s and low 30s in the afternoon.
The warm air will really start moving in on Friday night, starting above our heads and then at the surface during the day on Saturday. The milder conditions are being forced in by a large area of low pressure that is currently developing in the Central United States. As this system gets more organized, it will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will make this system very "wet" and will likely result in flooding for some locations east of the Mississippi River. We should stay dry here in New England until Sunday as the system will be moving very slowly. All the precipitation will be elongated along the low pressure system's cold front that will drape from the center of the low down toward the Gulf Coast. Eventually the low will pass through the Great Lakes and then well off to our north and west. This will keep the Northeastern US on the warm side of the storm and provide rain for almost everyone.
Temperatures will shoot up nicely on Saturday, reaching at least the 40s with a few 50s in Southern New England. Look it to be a few degrees warmer on Sunday than Saturday, with rain moving in during the afternoon. The model runs from last night and this morning aren't showing as much rain as they were yesterday morning and then ones that weren't showing a lot of rain, now are. I still expect a good deal of precipitation to fall here in New England, which will more than likely result in some flooding problems, especially when you combine it with the warmth we will have.
Stay tuned! Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
High pressure is in full control of New England this morning and this will remain the case through the day tomorrow. Temperatures this morning could have gotten colder, but there was enough of a breeze to keep the air mixed and temperatures up slightly. The same wind is resulting in below zero wind chills however. Daytime highs will be in the teens and low 20s and with the wind, wind chills values will remain very cold. Be careful if you are going to be outdoors for an extended period of time today.
The winds will die down tonight, this combined with the same cold air mass overhead will cause temperatures to plummet tonight. Looking at some of the temperature guidance for tomorrow morning, it looks like some spots will fall way, way below zero. This will likely happen in the typical cold spots of Northern and Central New England, especially in valleys. For example, the low temperature forecast for Berlin, NH is -30 for Friday morning. Needless to say, be prepared for a very cold start. We will have another day of sunshine, for the most part, a few clouds will likely move in throughout the day. Temperatures will climb to the upper 20s and low 30s in the afternoon.
The warm air will really start moving in on Friday night, starting above our heads and then at the surface during the day on Saturday. The milder conditions are being forced in by a large area of low pressure that is currently developing in the Central United States. As this system gets more organized, it will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will make this system very "wet" and will likely result in flooding for some locations east of the Mississippi River. We should stay dry here in New England until Sunday as the system will be moving very slowly. All the precipitation will be elongated along the low pressure system's cold front that will drape from the center of the low down toward the Gulf Coast. Eventually the low will pass through the Great Lakes and then well off to our north and west. This will keep the Northeastern US on the warm side of the storm and provide rain for almost everyone.
Temperatures will shoot up nicely on Saturday, reaching at least the 40s with a few 50s in Southern New England. Look it to be a few degrees warmer on Sunday than Saturday, with rain moving in during the afternoon. The model runs from last night and this morning aren't showing as much rain as they were yesterday morning and then ones that weren't showing a lot of rain, now are. I still expect a good deal of precipitation to fall here in New England, which will more than likely result in some flooding problems, especially when you combine it with the warmth we will have.
Stay tuned! Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Remaining quiet, for now...
Aside from a weak cold front passing through New England today, conditions will remain quiet until we reach the weekend.
There is currently some snow falling across portions of Northern and Central New England, I don't expect it to amount to much. This snow is falling along a cold front that is pressing southward. Ahead of this front, if you are currently on the Southern side of it, temperatures should reach the 40s today. So if you are south and east of Manchester, you have a good chance of hitting the 40s today. North and west, 30s with temperatures holding steady or slowly dropping throughout the day. The winds will pick up from the northwest as the day progresses as well. Chilly air will be surging in behind this front, leading to a cold day tomorrow. As for precipitation today, I expect to see the majority of what is falling right now, dry up as it heads further south. Can't rule out a few flurries or light rain/snow showers for the rest of the day.
A dry but cold day tomorrow. When you factor in the wind, it will be down right frigid tomorrow, but we should see plenty of sunshine. Daytime highs will only be in the upper teens to low 20s.
Friday begins a period of transition that will lead to warmer temperatures for the weekend, but also some unsettled and potentially significant rain. A very slow moving cold front will set up, extending from Quebec down toward the Gulf Coast. Along this front, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be pulled into the mix producing a good deal of rain along this front. Since the front is moving so slowly, it really won't affect the whole of New England until Sunday night. The timing of this will likely change, but right now Monday looks like a complete washout. Northern New England may deal with the precipitation a bit earlier due to the orientation of the cold front. Right now I'm expecting mainly rain, with areas of mixing, especially during the overnight hours. This is going to be a prolonged event, starting Saturday and ending early Tuesday morning.
Flooding is going to be a serious, serious concern with this system. If we see a good deal of rain in the White Mountains on Saturday and Sunday. The run off and melting, mixed with potentially 3+ inches of rain across Southern New England on Monday and mild temperatures, spells serious flooding concerns. Obviously, it is still very early, but it is something to think about the next few days, particularly in Southeastern NH and Eastern MA where the rivers drain toward the Atlantic.
I'll have more on this event in the coming days. Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
There is currently some snow falling across portions of Northern and Central New England, I don't expect it to amount to much. This snow is falling along a cold front that is pressing southward. Ahead of this front, if you are currently on the Southern side of it, temperatures should reach the 40s today. So if you are south and east of Manchester, you have a good chance of hitting the 40s today. North and west, 30s with temperatures holding steady or slowly dropping throughout the day. The winds will pick up from the northwest as the day progresses as well. Chilly air will be surging in behind this front, leading to a cold day tomorrow. As for precipitation today, I expect to see the majority of what is falling right now, dry up as it heads further south. Can't rule out a few flurries or light rain/snow showers for the rest of the day.
A dry but cold day tomorrow. When you factor in the wind, it will be down right frigid tomorrow, but we should see plenty of sunshine. Daytime highs will only be in the upper teens to low 20s.
Friday begins a period of transition that will lead to warmer temperatures for the weekend, but also some unsettled and potentially significant rain. A very slow moving cold front will set up, extending from Quebec down toward the Gulf Coast. Along this front, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be pulled into the mix producing a good deal of rain along this front. Since the front is moving so slowly, it really won't affect the whole of New England until Sunday night. The timing of this will likely change, but right now Monday looks like a complete washout. Northern New England may deal with the precipitation a bit earlier due to the orientation of the cold front. Right now I'm expecting mainly rain, with areas of mixing, especially during the overnight hours. This is going to be a prolonged event, starting Saturday and ending early Tuesday morning.
Flooding is going to be a serious, serious concern with this system. If we see a good deal of rain in the White Mountains on Saturday and Sunday. The run off and melting, mixed with potentially 3+ inches of rain across Southern New England on Monday and mild temperatures, spells serious flooding concerns. Obviously, it is still very early, but it is something to think about the next few days, particularly in Southeastern NH and Eastern MA where the rivers drain toward the Atlantic.
I'll have more on this event in the coming days. Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Quiet period
I don't have too much to write about this morning, our weather will remain generally quiet until the end of the work week.
March came in like a lamb today, so I suppose it will go out like a lion...time will tell. Behind the low pressure system that moved through yesterday is a large area of high pressure. This will dominate our weather through the day tomorrow. Temperatures will climb to above normal levels today, topping off in the 40s for just about all of New England. This should help to get rid of the icy spots that the rain left behind overnight.
Conditions will remain dry on Wednesday as well, but a few degrees cooler as the air aloft starts cool down slightly. Thursday will be the chilliest day of the week as a weak system will slide by to our north bringing northwesterly winds on the back side of it. This disturbance will pass through late on Wednesday, shouldn't bring anything besides some extra cloudiness, maybe some snow showers to higher elevations in Northern New England.
Friday, our weather will start to warm up again, gradually. A large area of low pressure developing in the Central US will swing the winds around to a southerly direction. This will pump mild air into the region again for the weekend. As the transitions happens, we may see some light snow or wintry mix sometime on Friday, doesn't look substantial at this point. The bulk of precipitation we will see with this system will come on Monday and should be in the form of rain, maybe ending as snow as the storm pushes off to the northeast.
With this system over the weekend, there is going to be another round of severe weather across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic states. A bit of an early call on this one, but there is going to be quite a temperature difference between the warm and cold sides of the system and that typically spells strong severe weather.
Beyond next Monday temps will cool down slightly and then begin to warm up again, another round of rain should arrive toward middle and end of next week.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
March came in like a lamb today, so I suppose it will go out like a lion...time will tell. Behind the low pressure system that moved through yesterday is a large area of high pressure. This will dominate our weather through the day tomorrow. Temperatures will climb to above normal levels today, topping off in the 40s for just about all of New England. This should help to get rid of the icy spots that the rain left behind overnight.
Conditions will remain dry on Wednesday as well, but a few degrees cooler as the air aloft starts cool down slightly. Thursday will be the chilliest day of the week as a weak system will slide by to our north bringing northwesterly winds on the back side of it. This disturbance will pass through late on Wednesday, shouldn't bring anything besides some extra cloudiness, maybe some snow showers to higher elevations in Northern New England.
Friday, our weather will start to warm up again, gradually. A large area of low pressure developing in the Central US will swing the winds around to a southerly direction. This will pump mild air into the region again for the weekend. As the transitions happens, we may see some light snow or wintry mix sometime on Friday, doesn't look substantial at this point. The bulk of precipitation we will see with this system will come on Monday and should be in the form of rain, maybe ending as snow as the storm pushes off to the northeast.
With this system over the weekend, there is going to be another round of severe weather across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic states. A bit of an early call on this one, but there is going to be quite a temperature difference between the warm and cold sides of the system and that typically spells strong severe weather.
Beyond next Monday temps will cool down slightly and then begin to warm up again, another round of rain should arrive toward middle and end of next week.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
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