Irene will be making landfall between 7 and 8 AM this morning near Beaufort, NC. Irene is a category 1 with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. There have been some wind gusts at Cape Hatteras of 82 mph.
Irene is 100% heading this way and it looks like it is going to make a second landfall just to the east of NYC on Eastern LI, probably near JFK airport. As it moves north, it will batter the coast of Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. There are already reports of damaged piers along the New Jersey shore. Look for Irene to slowly weaken through the day today and tonight, but will likely be a weak Category 1 or strong Tropical Storm when it makes it's second landfall in the Northeast.
On it's current track, the majority of New England will be on the East side of the storm. This will make wind and the risk of tornadoes the greatest threat. The risk of tornadoes will begin tonight and continue into midday tomorrow. This typically happens on the right front quadrant of a hurricane once it interacts with land. Right now Eastern NC and Virginia are experiencing this possibility.
Needless to say, we will be impacted by this storm, just not the extreme extent it was hyped to be. Regardless, there will be some damage, there will be power outages and there very well may be injuries and God for bid, loss of life here in New England. Last minute preparations should be made this morning and if you are planning on hunkering down somewhere other than your home, you probably want to do that tonight. Getting to your destination Sunday morning may be too late.
Please let me know if you have any questions.
You can follow me throughout the day on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/Jontheweatherman
or on twitter @jpkomarek.
I will do my best to keep you updated with the latest information and interesting observations of Irene.
Please be safe and thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Friday, August 26, 2011
Friday's Irene update
Nothing is set in stone....
Irene's exact track still remains a mystery and right now just about every meteorologist is relying on "trends" in the forecast models. So what does this mean? It means that hurricanes are one of the hardest, if not the hardest weather phenomena to predict. Computer models have very little data to start with over the oceans, not nearly as much as they have over land. Over land, there are more numerous surface observations, along with weather balloons that give readings far up into the atmosphere. Upper atmospheric observations essentially don't exist over the open water. I believe the computer models are able to use data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft. However, this is only a small picture of inside the storm, not the conditions surrounding the system.
Looking at what is happening this morning, Irene is moving due north and the outer rain bands are getting very close to the coast of North and South Carolina. The official forecast track as of 8 AM bring Irene over the Outer Banks on Saturday morning. There is no guarantee that Irene will even make landfall there, the eye could stay offshore complete. In fact some of the early morning runs are hinting at that.
If Irene does in fact stay off shore of the Carolinas, that is very very good news for us here in New England. The reason is that if it misses the Outer Banks, it will have already started it's turn toward the northeast and that will put it on a trajectory to miss New England, probably going over Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.
Regardless, everyone in New England should be prepared. A 3 day supply of food and water is a good start. The benefit of weather technology is that we know that Irene will be close and the utility companies are preparing, as are local officials.
I'll try to provide another update later today as I expect the track to shift a bit further to the east by this afternoon.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Irene's exact track still remains a mystery and right now just about every meteorologist is relying on "trends" in the forecast models. So what does this mean? It means that hurricanes are one of the hardest, if not the hardest weather phenomena to predict. Computer models have very little data to start with over the oceans, not nearly as much as they have over land. Over land, there are more numerous surface observations, along with weather balloons that give readings far up into the atmosphere. Upper atmospheric observations essentially don't exist over the open water. I believe the computer models are able to use data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft. However, this is only a small picture of inside the storm, not the conditions surrounding the system.
Looking at what is happening this morning, Irene is moving due north and the outer rain bands are getting very close to the coast of North and South Carolina. The official forecast track as of 8 AM bring Irene over the Outer Banks on Saturday morning. There is no guarantee that Irene will even make landfall there, the eye could stay offshore complete. In fact some of the early morning runs are hinting at that.
If Irene does in fact stay off shore of the Carolinas, that is very very good news for us here in New England. The reason is that if it misses the Outer Banks, it will have already started it's turn toward the northeast and that will put it on a trajectory to miss New England, probably going over Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.
Regardless, everyone in New England should be prepared. A 3 day supply of food and water is a good start. The benefit of weather technology is that we know that Irene will be close and the utility companies are preparing, as are local officials.
I'll try to provide another update later today as I expect the track to shift a bit further to the east by this afternoon.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Here comes Irene
I took some time off this summer, let myself refuel and refresh. I need to come out of hibernation however as Irene draws closer to the East Coast.
My initial gut feeling about this storm, essentially since it formed last week, was that it really wasn't going to be a threat to the United States. And for quite sometime, my gut was dead on. The first few forecasts had Irene heading for Miami. Then over the next 5 days, the forecast changed from Miami to.....Rhode Island. That's quite a spread and what can happen if you fall in the love with the computer guidance models too much.
However, over the last 24 hours, it seems we are finally getting a "clearer" picture of what will eventually happen. There is a still a chance that Irene could stay completely off shore and not technically make landfall on the US mainland. The chances of it staying off shore now are diminishing though. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Irene across the outer banks as a major hurricane(Category 3 or 4) and then it will continue up the coast, weakening as it moves north. The weakening will occur as it interacts with drier air over the US and the cooler ocean waters north of coast of the Carolinas. Irene is then forecast to cross Long Island sometime Saturday night or Sunday morning and then will continue into New England.
So you are probably asking, what does this mean for New England. Well, unless you live in Southern CT, RI or Southeast MA, probably not all that much. The biggest threat for the interior of New England will be flooding and the possibility of some isolated, weak tornadoes. Rainfall amounts of 5+ inches are possible which means, swollen streams and rivers and numerous flooded basements. Once you get about 10 miles inland, I don't believe wind will be a major factor. There probably will be some trees and limbs down, but I don't expect widespread problems further away from the coast.
Now if you do live on Long Island, Southern CT, RI or in Southeast MA; wind and storm surge are going to be a problem. There is going to be a lot of water being pushed northward ahead of Irene. Depending on when high tide is this weekend, which will be between 7 and 9 AM along the South Coast of New England, water levels could be very high. Unfortunately, the current timing of when Irene arrives coincides pretty closely with the rising tide. Low lying areas along the South Coast could be inundated with storm surge. As for the wind threat, we are probably looking at some gusts above hurricane strength for the Eastern half of Long Island and then into Southern CT, RI and southeast MA with most of the sustained winds at 65 mph or less. Further inland in Southern New England, wind speeds will likely stay below 45 mph with a few gusts north of 50 mph. Generally no worse than strong Nor'easter.
The biggest question is where the heaviest rain will fall. The cold front that is expected to move through New England today is forecast to stall across the region. (By the way, there is the threat of some strong storms this afternoon) Irene will use this as a path to slide into the region. Where this front sets up shop will likely be the focal point for a conveyor belt of torrential rain. My best guess at this time is that Central MA northward into NH and VT, right along the border is where the worst of the rain will fall. Still 4 days away, so much could change, as I said earlier, Irene could still miss completely and this is all for naught.
Please feel free to ask any questions you might have. Related to Irene or just hurricane in general.
Thanks for reading and I'll do my best to keep this updated over the next few days.
-Jon K.
My initial gut feeling about this storm, essentially since it formed last week, was that it really wasn't going to be a threat to the United States. And for quite sometime, my gut was dead on. The first few forecasts had Irene heading for Miami. Then over the next 5 days, the forecast changed from Miami to.....Rhode Island. That's quite a spread and what can happen if you fall in the love with the computer guidance models too much.
However, over the last 24 hours, it seems we are finally getting a "clearer" picture of what will eventually happen. There is a still a chance that Irene could stay completely off shore and not technically make landfall on the US mainland. The chances of it staying off shore now are diminishing though. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Irene across the outer banks as a major hurricane(Category 3 or 4) and then it will continue up the coast, weakening as it moves north. The weakening will occur as it interacts with drier air over the US and the cooler ocean waters north of coast of the Carolinas. Irene is then forecast to cross Long Island sometime Saturday night or Sunday morning and then will continue into New England.
So you are probably asking, what does this mean for New England. Well, unless you live in Southern CT, RI or Southeast MA, probably not all that much. The biggest threat for the interior of New England will be flooding and the possibility of some isolated, weak tornadoes. Rainfall amounts of 5+ inches are possible which means, swollen streams and rivers and numerous flooded basements. Once you get about 10 miles inland, I don't believe wind will be a major factor. There probably will be some trees and limbs down, but I don't expect widespread problems further away from the coast.
Now if you do live on Long Island, Southern CT, RI or in Southeast MA; wind and storm surge are going to be a problem. There is going to be a lot of water being pushed northward ahead of Irene. Depending on when high tide is this weekend, which will be between 7 and 9 AM along the South Coast of New England, water levels could be very high. Unfortunately, the current timing of when Irene arrives coincides pretty closely with the rising tide. Low lying areas along the South Coast could be inundated with storm surge. As for the wind threat, we are probably looking at some gusts above hurricane strength for the Eastern half of Long Island and then into Southern CT, RI and southeast MA with most of the sustained winds at 65 mph or less. Further inland in Southern New England, wind speeds will likely stay below 45 mph with a few gusts north of 50 mph. Generally no worse than strong Nor'easter.
The biggest question is where the heaviest rain will fall. The cold front that is expected to move through New England today is forecast to stall across the region. (By the way, there is the threat of some strong storms this afternoon) Irene will use this as a path to slide into the region. Where this front sets up shop will likely be the focal point for a conveyor belt of torrential rain. My best guess at this time is that Central MA northward into NH and VT, right along the border is where the worst of the rain will fall. Still 4 days away, so much could change, as I said earlier, Irene could still miss completely and this is all for naught.
Please feel free to ask any questions you might have. Related to Irene or just hurricane in general.
Thanks for reading and I'll do my best to keep this updated over the next few days.
-Jon K.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Less humid
Back in the saddle. After a few hot and humid days, we have returned to more comfortable conditions here in New England.
Today: Becoming mostly sunny, highs in the mid and upper 70s.
Tonight: Clear, cooler, lows in the 50s to near 60 south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: Lots of sunshine, highs in the lower 80s.
Tomorrow night: Clear, lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s south, 40s north.
Saturday: Sunshine continues, highs in the mid and upper 80s.
Discussion:
High pressure has taken over the region and will remain in place for the next 4 to 5 days. This leaves me with very little to talk about. We will see a good deal of sunshine and warm temperatures, without the humidity through the upcoming weekend. Our next real chance of unsettled weather will be during the first half of next week as humidity levels return and pop-up showers and thunderstorms will be a possibility. Enjoy the beautiful weather this weekend!
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Becoming mostly sunny, highs in the mid and upper 70s.
Tonight: Clear, cooler, lows in the 50s to near 60 south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: Lots of sunshine, highs in the lower 80s.
Tomorrow night: Clear, lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s south, 40s north.
Saturday: Sunshine continues, highs in the mid and upper 80s.
Discussion:
High pressure has taken over the region and will remain in place for the next 4 to 5 days. This leaves me with very little to talk about. We will see a good deal of sunshine and warm temperatures, without the humidity through the upcoming weekend. Our next real chance of unsettled weather will be during the first half of next week as humidity levels return and pop-up showers and thunderstorms will be a possibility. Enjoy the beautiful weather this weekend!
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Quick post today
More humid today, showers and thunderstorms possible tonight.
Today: Partly sunny, muggy, highs in the low to mid 80s.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms possible, especially after midnight, lows in the 60s south, upper 50s north.
Tomorrow: Maybe a few left over showers early, then partial clearing, highs in the lower 80s south, upper 70s north.
Tomorrow night: Clear to partly cloudy, lows near 60 south, low 50s north.
Thursday: Partly sunny, chance of a few showers in Northern New England, highs near 80 south, 70 north.
Discussion:
High pressure is sliding out of the region today and this has turned our winds around to the southwest. This will push higher levels of humidity into the area. This will provide the fuel for a cold front that will move through New England overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be associated with this front, mainly after midnight.
Once the front clears the region by mid morning tomorrow conditions will improve for most of the region. It looks like there will still be a few lingering showers on Thursday for Northern New England, but southern areas will stay dry. After Thursday our weather should be mainly dry right through the upcoming holiday weekend. A stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible on Sunday and Monday afternoons, but nothing significant at this point.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Partly sunny, muggy, highs in the low to mid 80s.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms possible, especially after midnight, lows in the 60s south, upper 50s north.
Tomorrow: Maybe a few left over showers early, then partial clearing, highs in the lower 80s south, upper 70s north.
Tomorrow night: Clear to partly cloudy, lows near 60 south, low 50s north.
Thursday: Partly sunny, chance of a few showers in Northern New England, highs near 80 south, 70 north.
Discussion:
High pressure is sliding out of the region today and this has turned our winds around to the southwest. This will push higher levels of humidity into the area. This will provide the fuel for a cold front that will move through New England overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be associated with this front, mainly after midnight.
Once the front clears the region by mid morning tomorrow conditions will improve for most of the region. It looks like there will still be a few lingering showers on Thursday for Northern New England, but southern areas will stay dry. After Thursday our weather should be mainly dry right through the upcoming holiday weekend. A stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible on Sunday and Monday afternoons, but nothing significant at this point.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Monday, June 27, 2011
Summery
A great start to the week here in New England then some vast differences between North and South late in the week.
Today: Lots of sunshine, mild, highs in the low to mid 80s north and south.
Tonight: Mainly clear, lows in the lower 60s south, upper 40s to lower 50s north.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny to start then becoming partly sunny, chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm, highs in the low 80s north and south.
Tomorrow night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, lows in the low to mid 60s.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms ending in the morning south, still possible in Central and Northern New England, highs in the low 80s south, 70s north.
Discussion:
High pressure is in control of our weather to start the week here in New England. This will supply clear skies and warm temperatures. Sadly this won't last for more than a day and a half before another disturbance arrives late tomorrow. After a comfortable day today, humidity wise, low level moisture will return tomorrow making for a more humid day tomorrow. As the disturbance gets closer and with the moisture available at the surface, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop late in the afternoon.
If we see anything develop, it will be out ahead of the main area of wet weather. Our best chance of unsettled weather will be overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Southern areas will clear out first and unfortunately it looks like wet weather chances will hang around for Northern New England right through the end of the work week. The upper level low associated with the disturbance moving through tomorrow night will stall in Southern Quebec. This will leave a few clouds around for Southern New England, but there should be some showers popping up at times across Northern areas.
So enjoy today and the first half of tomorrow!
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Lots of sunshine, mild, highs in the low to mid 80s north and south.
Tonight: Mainly clear, lows in the lower 60s south, upper 40s to lower 50s north.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny to start then becoming partly sunny, chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm, highs in the low 80s north and south.
Tomorrow night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, lows in the low to mid 60s.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms ending in the morning south, still possible in Central and Northern New England, highs in the low 80s south, 70s north.
Discussion:
High pressure is in control of our weather to start the week here in New England. This will supply clear skies and warm temperatures. Sadly this won't last for more than a day and a half before another disturbance arrives late tomorrow. After a comfortable day today, humidity wise, low level moisture will return tomorrow making for a more humid day tomorrow. As the disturbance gets closer and with the moisture available at the surface, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop late in the afternoon.
If we see anything develop, it will be out ahead of the main area of wet weather. Our best chance of unsettled weather will be overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Southern areas will clear out first and unfortunately it looks like wet weather chances will hang around for Northern New England right through the end of the work week. The upper level low associated with the disturbance moving through tomorrow night will stall in Southern Quebec. This will leave a few clouds around for Southern New England, but there should be some showers popping up at times across Northern areas.
So enjoy today and the first half of tomorrow!
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Friday, June 24, 2011
It will get better
I promise our weather is improving, it's just taking awhile.
Today: Cloudy, chance of a few showers, especially this afternoon, highs only in the low 60s.
Tonight: Periods of rain, slight chance of a few rumbles of thunder, lows in the 50s.
Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms possible, particularly in the afternoon, highs in the 70s south, near 70 north.
Tomorrow night: Showers and thunderstorms taper off, partial clearing, lows in the 50s.
Sunday: Partly sunny, finally dry, highs in the upper 70s to near 80.
Discussion:
There are just few widely scattered showers around New England this morning and these will continue to lift toward the northeast throughout the day. Once they move out or fall apart, much of the region will stay dry until another round of rain develops across Northern PA and Upstate NY. They are seeing sunshine there and this will set off a line of showers and thunderstorms that will move into the region late this afternoon and tonight. By the time it reaches the cool, moist atmosphere here in New England, the majority of the thunderstorms will fall apart just leaving pockets of heavy downpours.
This batch of rain should be clear of New England by sunrise on Saturday and I think that just maybe, possibly, there could be a few breaks of sun tomorrow morning. How much sun we see tomorrow will greatly impact how much rain develops during the day. The more sun that breaks through, the more showers and thunderstorms that will develop. With 3 straight days of rain, the low levels of the atmosphere are very moist. With heating, this moisture will be lifted up in the atmosphere and will drive the development of more clouds along with showers and thunderstorms. If we do see an extended period of sunshine, look for some of those thunderstorms to become severe during the afternoon. Once the sun sets however on Saturday, the wet weather will begin to fall apart and then we can look forward to Sunday.
Sunday will feel like the nicest day we've had all year long after what we have put up with since Wednesday. We should see a fair amount of sunshine and temperatures getting very close to 80 degrees. The dry weather looks like it will continue into the first half of next week as well. So just a little bit longer and then we can all go outside again.....
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Cloudy, chance of a few showers, especially this afternoon, highs only in the low 60s.
Tonight: Periods of rain, slight chance of a few rumbles of thunder, lows in the 50s.
Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms possible, particularly in the afternoon, highs in the 70s south, near 70 north.
Tomorrow night: Showers and thunderstorms taper off, partial clearing, lows in the 50s.
Sunday: Partly sunny, finally dry, highs in the upper 70s to near 80.
Discussion:
There are just few widely scattered showers around New England this morning and these will continue to lift toward the northeast throughout the day. Once they move out or fall apart, much of the region will stay dry until another round of rain develops across Northern PA and Upstate NY. They are seeing sunshine there and this will set off a line of showers and thunderstorms that will move into the region late this afternoon and tonight. By the time it reaches the cool, moist atmosphere here in New England, the majority of the thunderstorms will fall apart just leaving pockets of heavy downpours.
This batch of rain should be clear of New England by sunrise on Saturday and I think that just maybe, possibly, there could be a few breaks of sun tomorrow morning. How much sun we see tomorrow will greatly impact how much rain develops during the day. The more sun that breaks through, the more showers and thunderstorms that will develop. With 3 straight days of rain, the low levels of the atmosphere are very moist. With heating, this moisture will be lifted up in the atmosphere and will drive the development of more clouds along with showers and thunderstorms. If we do see an extended period of sunshine, look for some of those thunderstorms to become severe during the afternoon. Once the sun sets however on Saturday, the wet weather will begin to fall apart and then we can look forward to Sunday.
Sunday will feel like the nicest day we've had all year long after what we have put up with since Wednesday. We should see a fair amount of sunshine and temperatures getting very close to 80 degrees. The dry weather looks like it will continue into the first half of next week as well. So just a little bit longer and then we can all go outside again.....
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Dreary
Unsettled weather remain in the forecast but we will see gradual improvement starting tomorrow.
Today: Cloudy with showers and periods of drizzle and fog, highs in the 60s.
Tonight: Cloudy with occasional rain, potentially heavy at times, lows in the 50s.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with the chance of a showers and maybe a few thunderstorms in the afternoon, highs in the mid and upper 60s south, near 60 north.
Tomorrow night: Mainly cloudy, still a few showers possible, lows in the upper 50s south, lower 50s north.
Saturday: Limited sunshine, showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, highs near 70 south, mid and upper 60s north.
Discussion:
We are still under control of the low pressure system off to our west. This will continue to rotate showers and periods of rain through New England through tonight and into tomorrow. Some locations yesterday afternoon and overnight received a radar estimated 3" of rain, with a wide swath of 1+". We needed a bit of rain here, but the fact that it is going to last for nearly 3 days is no fun for anyone.
During the day part today we should stay mostly dry. Another round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will approach the region later this afternoon. By the time it reaches New England, most of the thunderstorms will have collapsed, but will still leave a large area of steady rain with pockets of heavy downpours. Most of the rain should fall after the sun sets tonight, but will likely begin around the evening commute today. It will be very similar to what we saw yesterday, but the rain will hold off a little longer than it did yesterday. Again, most of the precipitation will be offshore on Friday morning.
Tomorrow will be a drier day, but we will still have the threat of showers and maybe a thunderstorm. The biggest question is if the clouds will break up at all tomorrow. If that does happen, some places will be much warmer than the 60s and with the amount of moisture in the atmosphere and the available energy, any thunderstorms that do develop will have the ability to become severe. Right now, I'm not expecting too much sunshine, but again it's not out of the realm of possibility.
We will see some sunshine on Saturday and as a result we will have showers and thunderstorms developing as it warms up during the day. Fortunately once these fall apart with the setting sun on Saturday, our weather will turn drier to finish out the weekend and into the beginning of next week. It looks like we might have one or two days next week with chances for showers and thunderstorms, but nothing like what we are dealing with right now.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Cloudy with showers and periods of drizzle and fog, highs in the 60s.
Tonight: Cloudy with occasional rain, potentially heavy at times, lows in the 50s.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with the chance of a showers and maybe a few thunderstorms in the afternoon, highs in the mid and upper 60s south, near 60 north.
Tomorrow night: Mainly cloudy, still a few showers possible, lows in the upper 50s south, lower 50s north.
Saturday: Limited sunshine, showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, highs near 70 south, mid and upper 60s north.
Discussion:
We are still under control of the low pressure system off to our west. This will continue to rotate showers and periods of rain through New England through tonight and into tomorrow. Some locations yesterday afternoon and overnight received a radar estimated 3" of rain, with a wide swath of 1+". We needed a bit of rain here, but the fact that it is going to last for nearly 3 days is no fun for anyone.
During the day part today we should stay mostly dry. Another round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will approach the region later this afternoon. By the time it reaches New England, most of the thunderstorms will have collapsed, but will still leave a large area of steady rain with pockets of heavy downpours. Most of the rain should fall after the sun sets tonight, but will likely begin around the evening commute today. It will be very similar to what we saw yesterday, but the rain will hold off a little longer than it did yesterday. Again, most of the precipitation will be offshore on Friday morning.
Tomorrow will be a drier day, but we will still have the threat of showers and maybe a thunderstorm. The biggest question is if the clouds will break up at all tomorrow. If that does happen, some places will be much warmer than the 60s and with the amount of moisture in the atmosphere and the available energy, any thunderstorms that do develop will have the ability to become severe. Right now, I'm not expecting too much sunshine, but again it's not out of the realm of possibility.
We will see some sunshine on Saturday and as a result we will have showers and thunderstorms developing as it warms up during the day. Fortunately once these fall apart with the setting sun on Saturday, our weather will turn drier to finish out the weekend and into the beginning of next week. It looks like we might have one or two days next week with chances for showers and thunderstorms, but nothing like what we are dealing with right now.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Cooler and wetter
Unsettled weather is on tap for the next few days here across New England.
Today: Mostly cloudy with the chance of a few showers, mainly a dry day though, highs in the 70s north and south.
Tonight: Periods of rain, maybe a few thunderstorms, lows around 60 south, 50s north.
Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy, chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the late afternoon, highs in the 60s north and south.
Tomorrow night: Cloudy with showers possible, lows in the upper 50s north and south.
Friday: Cloudy with the chance of more showers, maybe a few thunderstorms, highs in the low 70s.
Discussion:
Well it looks like the wet weather is arriving about 12 hours earlier than I expected. Showers and a line of thunderstorms and downpours are moving into the region, weakening along the way. This will likely not hold together to reach Eastern areas, but Western and Southern areas have already had some rain this morning. I don't think we'll see much more rain during the day today once this batch clears the region or dissipates. Tonight however will be a different story. It's looking like there will be an area heavy downpours and thunderstorms approaching tonight. Many areas need this rain as it has been pretty dry across New England over the last month.
The rain that will move through tonight should be mainly out of the picture by tomorrow morning. Again it looks like the daylight hours of Thursday will be generally dry with just the chance of a few isolated showers. Then we'll repeat the process and see another round of steady rain slide in Thursday evening into the overnight hours. After this we should start to dry out slightly. Showers and thunderstorms will remain the forecast through the afternoon on Saturday, but decreasing in numbers and coverage along the way. Temperatures will start to creep back up on Friday and Saturday and we should be back into the 80s for Sunday.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Mostly cloudy with the chance of a few showers, mainly a dry day though, highs in the 70s north and south.
Tonight: Periods of rain, maybe a few thunderstorms, lows around 60 south, 50s north.
Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy, chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the late afternoon, highs in the 60s north and south.
Tomorrow night: Cloudy with showers possible, lows in the upper 50s north and south.
Friday: Cloudy with the chance of more showers, maybe a few thunderstorms, highs in the low 70s.
Discussion:
Well it looks like the wet weather is arriving about 12 hours earlier than I expected. Showers and a line of thunderstorms and downpours are moving into the region, weakening along the way. This will likely not hold together to reach Eastern areas, but Western and Southern areas have already had some rain this morning. I don't think we'll see much more rain during the day today once this batch clears the region or dissipates. Tonight however will be a different story. It's looking like there will be an area heavy downpours and thunderstorms approaching tonight. Many areas need this rain as it has been pretty dry across New England over the last month.
The rain that will move through tonight should be mainly out of the picture by tomorrow morning. Again it looks like the daylight hours of Thursday will be generally dry with just the chance of a few isolated showers. Then we'll repeat the process and see another round of steady rain slide in Thursday evening into the overnight hours. After this we should start to dry out slightly. Showers and thunderstorms will remain the forecast through the afternoon on Saturday, but decreasing in numbers and coverage along the way. Temperatures will start to creep back up on Friday and Saturday and we should be back into the 80s for Sunday.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Warm and dry
Conditions will remain warm and dry through tomorrow.
Today: Partly sunny, highs in the low to mid 80s south, upper 70s north.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, lows in the upper 50s to low 60s south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: Occasional sun then becoming cloudy in the afternoon, highs in the upper 70s north and south.
Tomorrow night: Cloudy with the chance of showers, lows in the upper 50s south, low 50s north.
Thursday: Cloudy with showers likely and the chance of thunderstorms, highs in the 60s.
Discussion:
High pressure will stay in control of our weather through tonight and then an approaching warm front will but a damper on things. Plenty of sunshine, warm temperatures and low humidity will persist into tomorrow afternoon, so enjoy it while you can. Clouds will increase during the day tomorrow as the warm front advances closer to the region. It looks like any shower activity should hold off until tomorrow night.
Once the warm front sets up across New England, our temperatures will cool down considerably. An easterly wind will see to this. The front will slowly drift across the region on Wednesday night and Thursday bringing the threat of on and off showers. Not a steady all day rain, but periodic showers and maybe a couple of thunderstorms. Eventually the warm front will essentially disappate and then the surface low moves in. This will keep the threat of wet weather in the forecast through Friday and into the upcoming weekend. It will not be a washout by any stretch of the imagination, but conditions will be favorable for showers and thunderstorms to develop at any time Thursday through Saturday afternoon. Sunday looks like the better of the two weekend days at this point.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Partly sunny, highs in the low to mid 80s south, upper 70s north.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, lows in the upper 50s to low 60s south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: Occasional sun then becoming cloudy in the afternoon, highs in the upper 70s north and south.
Tomorrow night: Cloudy with the chance of showers, lows in the upper 50s south, low 50s north.
Thursday: Cloudy with showers likely and the chance of thunderstorms, highs in the 60s.
Discussion:
High pressure will stay in control of our weather through tonight and then an approaching warm front will but a damper on things. Plenty of sunshine, warm temperatures and low humidity will persist into tomorrow afternoon, so enjoy it while you can. Clouds will increase during the day tomorrow as the warm front advances closer to the region. It looks like any shower activity should hold off until tomorrow night.
Once the warm front sets up across New England, our temperatures will cool down considerably. An easterly wind will see to this. The front will slowly drift across the region on Wednesday night and Thursday bringing the threat of on and off showers. Not a steady all day rain, but periodic showers and maybe a couple of thunderstorms. Eventually the warm front will essentially disappate and then the surface low moves in. This will keep the threat of wet weather in the forecast through Friday and into the upcoming weekend. It will not be a washout by any stretch of the imagination, but conditions will be favorable for showers and thunderstorms to develop at any time Thursday through Saturday afternoon. Sunday looks like the better of the two weekend days at this point.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Rain today, not too bad for the weekend
We have a batch of rain moving through today, then not looking too bad for this weekend.
Today: Mostly cloudy, showers and a few thunderstorms possible, especially in Southern New England, highs in the mid and upper 70s.
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance of a few showers, lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Tomorrow: Periods of sun, a few showers and thunderstorms will develop during the middle of the day and continue into the late afternoon, highs near 80.
Tomorrow night: Any showers come to an end, otherwise partly cloudy, lows near 60 south, upper 40s to low 50s north.
Sunday: Partly sunny, maybe a few showers along the South Coast, highs in the low to mid 80s south, 70s north.
Discussion:
A warm front will pass through New England today. Along this front is an area of showers and thunderstorm, which is gradually weakening. This is already bringing rain to parts of Southern New England. Mainly only southern areas will be affected by this rain through the middle of the day. I expect to see a few more showers and thunderstorms pop up this afternoon, in areas that see more sunshine. Fortunately, once we get rid of this batch of showers and storms, our weekend looks pleasant for the most part.
There will still be some instability around during the day tomorrow, which will result in a few pop up showers and thunderstorms, but this will be scattered in nature and won't affect the entire region. Look for this activity to begin late in the morning or early afternoon and continue until the early evening. As the sun starts to set the wet weather will begin to diminish. Sunday will probably be the best of the weekend days, unless you live along the immediate South Coast of New England. That is where some rain is possible on Sunday. A low pressure system will be passing to the south of New England and the northern edge of the precipitation may impact Southern CT and RI, along with the Cape and Islands. The rest of New England will see a good deal of sunshine and mild temperatures.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Mostly cloudy, showers and a few thunderstorms possible, especially in Southern New England, highs in the mid and upper 70s.
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, slight chance of a few showers, lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Tomorrow: Periods of sun, a few showers and thunderstorms will develop during the middle of the day and continue into the late afternoon, highs near 80.
Tomorrow night: Any showers come to an end, otherwise partly cloudy, lows near 60 south, upper 40s to low 50s north.
Sunday: Partly sunny, maybe a few showers along the South Coast, highs in the low to mid 80s south, 70s north.
Discussion:
A warm front will pass through New England today. Along this front is an area of showers and thunderstorm, which is gradually weakening. This is already bringing rain to parts of Southern New England. Mainly only southern areas will be affected by this rain through the middle of the day. I expect to see a few more showers and thunderstorms pop up this afternoon, in areas that see more sunshine. Fortunately, once we get rid of this batch of showers and storms, our weekend looks pleasant for the most part.
There will still be some instability around during the day tomorrow, which will result in a few pop up showers and thunderstorms, but this will be scattered in nature and won't affect the entire region. Look for this activity to begin late in the morning or early afternoon and continue until the early evening. As the sun starts to set the wet weather will begin to diminish. Sunday will probably be the best of the weekend days, unless you live along the immediate South Coast of New England. That is where some rain is possible on Sunday. A low pressure system will be passing to the south of New England and the northern edge of the precipitation may impact Southern CT and RI, along with the Cape and Islands. The rest of New England will see a good deal of sunshine and mild temperatures.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Sunshine is back
Apologies for the lack of blogs the last few days, laziness and house work got in the way.
Today: Partly to mostly sunny, highs in the mid and upper 70s.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, lows in the 50s south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, mild, highs near 80.
Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds, lows near 60 south, near 50 north.
Friday: Cloudy, showers possible, highs in the 70s.
Discussion:
We have finally rid ourselves of the stubborn ocean low and have returned to more seasonable and pleasant conditions. You could see the clouds starting to break up last night just before the sun went down. High pressure will take control for today and tomorrow provide a good amount of sunshine and mild temperatures. Unfortunately we won't make it through the rest of the work week before rain chances return. A low pressure system will slide into the region on Friday bringing the threat of more wet weather. Right now it doesn't appear to be a washout, but there will be on and off showers throughout the day.
The low pressure system will be moving slowly and will hang around into the day on Saturday. Showers will be possible, especially the first half of the day on Saturday. Conditions will improve as we finish out the weekend with sunshine returning for Sunday. There will be an upper level low around on Sunday, so it is something to keep an eye on. If the mid levels of the atmosphere are cold, our sunshine might be limited.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Partly to mostly sunny, highs in the mid and upper 70s.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, lows in the 50s south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, mild, highs near 80.
Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds, lows near 60 south, near 50 north.
Friday: Cloudy, showers possible, highs in the 70s.
Discussion:
We have finally rid ourselves of the stubborn ocean low and have returned to more seasonable and pleasant conditions. You could see the clouds starting to break up last night just before the sun went down. High pressure will take control for today and tomorrow provide a good amount of sunshine and mild temperatures. Unfortunately we won't make it through the rest of the work week before rain chances return. A low pressure system will slide into the region on Friday bringing the threat of more wet weather. Right now it doesn't appear to be a washout, but there will be on and off showers throughout the day.
The low pressure system will be moving slowly and will hang around into the day on Saturday. Showers will be possible, especially the first half of the day on Saturday. Conditions will improve as we finish out the weekend with sunshine returning for Sunday. There will be an upper level low around on Sunday, so it is something to keep an eye on. If the mid levels of the atmosphere are cold, our sunshine might be limited.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Friday, June 10, 2011
Hot to not
From steamy weather yesterday to damp and cool for the weekend.
Today: Partial sunshine, highs in the 70s.
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, lows in the 50s south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: Cloudy with the periods of rain showers, slight chance of an embedded thunderstorm, highs in the mid 60s.
Tomorrow night: Occasional rain with the chance of a few rumbles of thunder, lows in the 50s.
Sunday: Rain showers possible, especially in the morning, highs near 70 south, mid 60s north.
Discussion:
Looks like we'll have a mainly lost weekend coming up thanks to a low pressure system moving through New England. We'll have a decent day across New England today, a bit heavy on the clouds, but generally pleasant. However, another storm system is headed our direction that will directly impact our weekend. The center of the low will pass off to our north and west on Saturday night. Out of ahead of the center of the low will be some rain along the warm front, the rain from this should arrive during the first half of Saturday. Most places will just see rain, though there could be a few embedded thunderstorms with heavier downpours. Late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening is when we should have a break from some precipitation, after the warm front moves through and before the cold front arrives. The timing of the cold front remains a bit of a question mark right now, but it looks like it will move through around or before sunrise on Sunday morning. The sooner it moves through, the better our chances are of having a mostly dry Sunday. I'm expecting just some leftover rain showers on Sunday morning with gradual improvement throughout the day. I don't think we will see much in the way of sunshine on Sunday, but it should be the better of the two weekend days.
Looking out into next week, I don't think I like what I see. We might have to deal with a retrograding low pressure system backing in from the ocean. I've said this before, the guidance models have a tough time forecasting these events, so let's just hope what I'm seeing is in correct.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Partial sunshine, highs in the 70s.
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, lows in the 50s south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: Cloudy with the periods of rain showers, slight chance of an embedded thunderstorm, highs in the mid 60s.
Tomorrow night: Occasional rain with the chance of a few rumbles of thunder, lows in the 50s.
Sunday: Rain showers possible, especially in the morning, highs near 70 south, mid 60s north.
Discussion:
Looks like we'll have a mainly lost weekend coming up thanks to a low pressure system moving through New England. We'll have a decent day across New England today, a bit heavy on the clouds, but generally pleasant. However, another storm system is headed our direction that will directly impact our weekend. The center of the low will pass off to our north and west on Saturday night. Out of ahead of the center of the low will be some rain along the warm front, the rain from this should arrive during the first half of Saturday. Most places will just see rain, though there could be a few embedded thunderstorms with heavier downpours. Late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening is when we should have a break from some precipitation, after the warm front moves through and before the cold front arrives. The timing of the cold front remains a bit of a question mark right now, but it looks like it will move through around or before sunrise on Sunday morning. The sooner it moves through, the better our chances are of having a mostly dry Sunday. I'm expecting just some leftover rain showers on Sunday morning with gradual improvement throughout the day. I don't think we will see much in the way of sunshine on Sunday, but it should be the better of the two weekend days.
Looking out into next week, I don't think I like what I see. We might have to deal with a retrograding low pressure system backing in from the ocean. I've said this before, the guidance models have a tough time forecasting these events, so let's just hope what I'm seeing is in correct.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Severe threat
One round of showers and thunderstorms down, more expected later.
Today: Periods of hazy sun, showers and thunderstorms possible at times, especially this afternoon. Some storms could be severe with gusty winds and large hail. Highs in the 90s south, 80s north.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms diminish in the evening, becoming partly cloudy, lows in the 60s south, 50s north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, cooler, highs in the 70s.
Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds, lows in the 50s south, upper 30s north.
Saturday: Cloudy with showers possible, highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
Discussion:
I will focus on today as the weather should impact just about everyone. We've already had some rain and thunderstorms move through. Some are still on-going across parts of Northern and Central New England. Starting early this afternoon a new line of showers and thunderstorms will develop. It appears that this will be a long line of storms that will cover nearly all of New England. The biggest threat today will be damaging wind gusts primarily and secondary will be large hail. It's going to be very warm so the threat of large hail is lower as the hail should be melting as it falls. As the line of thunderstorms develop, I'm expecting to see the line bow out in a few places. This is where the greatest threat of straight line wind gusts will be. The timing of this should be after 2 PM in Western MA and then after 4 PM closer to the coast. There will likely be a severe thunderstorm watch issued later today.
After today our weather will get cooler and also a bit more wet. This weekend really isn't looking very good right now. We won't have rain all the time, but on and off rain showers appear to be what we are going to see. I'm not expecting a complete washout, but it's going to be hard to get any outdoor activities completed without seeing some raindrops. I'm hoping that we will be able to salvage half of a day. If that happens it is going to be on Sunday afternoon, we'll see.
Keep tabs on updated weather alerts and develops on facebook @ http://www.facebook.com/Jontheweatherman. I'll update this as I can today with warnings and better timing of when the storms will arrive.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Periods of hazy sun, showers and thunderstorms possible at times, especially this afternoon. Some storms could be severe with gusty winds and large hail. Highs in the 90s south, 80s north.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms diminish in the evening, becoming partly cloudy, lows in the 60s south, 50s north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, cooler, highs in the 70s.
Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds, lows in the 50s south, upper 30s north.
Saturday: Cloudy with showers possible, highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
Discussion:
I will focus on today as the weather should impact just about everyone. We've already had some rain and thunderstorms move through. Some are still on-going across parts of Northern and Central New England. Starting early this afternoon a new line of showers and thunderstorms will develop. It appears that this will be a long line of storms that will cover nearly all of New England. The biggest threat today will be damaging wind gusts primarily and secondary will be large hail. It's going to be very warm so the threat of large hail is lower as the hail should be melting as it falls. As the line of thunderstorms develop, I'm expecting to see the line bow out in a few places. This is where the greatest threat of straight line wind gusts will be. The timing of this should be after 2 PM in Western MA and then after 4 PM closer to the coast. There will likely be a severe thunderstorm watch issued later today.
After today our weather will get cooler and also a bit more wet. This weekend really isn't looking very good right now. We won't have rain all the time, but on and off rain showers appear to be what we are going to see. I'm not expecting a complete washout, but it's going to be hard to get any outdoor activities completed without seeing some raindrops. I'm hoping that we will be able to salvage half of a day. If that happens it is going to be on Sunday afternoon, we'll see.
Keep tabs on updated weather alerts and develops on facebook @ http://www.facebook.com/Jontheweatherman. I'll update this as I can today with warnings and better timing of when the storms will arrive.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Hot and sticky
Turn on your air conditioners if you have them.
Today: Hot and getting more humid, highs in the upper 80s and low 90s, warmest inland.
Tonight: Mainly clear, warm and humid, lows in the low 70s south, 60s north.
Tomorrow: Hazy, hot and humid, chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms inland, some may be severe, highs in the mid and upper 90s, a bit cooler along the coast.
Tomorrow night: Any showers and thunderstorms end in the evening, otherwise partly cloudy, lows in the mid and upper 60s south, 50s north.
Friday: Partly sunny, cooler, highs 75-80 south, near 70 north.
Discussion:
High pressure is pumping warm and humid air into New England and these conditions will continue into tomorrow. Southwesterly winds on the backside of the high pressure system off the Eastern Seaboard will create some record high temperatures for the region today and tomorrow. It won't be until a cold front moves through late tomorrow then we will get some relief.
Until that front arrives it will be quiet on the precipitation front. There may be a few showers that try to make it into Western New England late today, but most of them will start to fall apart as they arrive as the sun will be setting and they will be getting further away from the unsettled conditions. It looks like the front will arrive in New England late tomorrow afternoon. Too late for any storms across much of Southern New England, but Central, Western and Northern New England may get a few strong storms. We'll probably see them start firing up across Upstate NY around 1PM and then they will march eastward. Strong gusty winds and large hail will be the primary threat from any of the strong storms. Threat of rotation in the storms will be relatively low, but not entirely out of the question. Maine will likely be the spot if any tornadoes or rotation develops. I'll have more tomorrow.
After this front passes the flow across New England looks like it will slow down. This is going to significantly impact the weekend, especially Sunday. A low pressure system will move in late on Saturday and then hang around through Sunday. This should provide periodic rain showers to the region. We probably could use the rain as we haven't had any steady rain in nearly a month or so. We should be able to salvage Saturday, but Sunday looks to be cool and damp.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Hot and getting more humid, highs in the upper 80s and low 90s, warmest inland.
Tonight: Mainly clear, warm and humid, lows in the low 70s south, 60s north.
Tomorrow: Hazy, hot and humid, chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms inland, some may be severe, highs in the mid and upper 90s, a bit cooler along the coast.
Tomorrow night: Any showers and thunderstorms end in the evening, otherwise partly cloudy, lows in the mid and upper 60s south, 50s north.
Friday: Partly sunny, cooler, highs 75-80 south, near 70 north.
Discussion:
High pressure is pumping warm and humid air into New England and these conditions will continue into tomorrow. Southwesterly winds on the backside of the high pressure system off the Eastern Seaboard will create some record high temperatures for the region today and tomorrow. It won't be until a cold front moves through late tomorrow then we will get some relief.
Until that front arrives it will be quiet on the precipitation front. There may be a few showers that try to make it into Western New England late today, but most of them will start to fall apart as they arrive as the sun will be setting and they will be getting further away from the unsettled conditions. It looks like the front will arrive in New England late tomorrow afternoon. Too late for any storms across much of Southern New England, but Central, Western and Northern New England may get a few strong storms. We'll probably see them start firing up across Upstate NY around 1PM and then they will march eastward. Strong gusty winds and large hail will be the primary threat from any of the strong storms. Threat of rotation in the storms will be relatively low, but not entirely out of the question. Maine will likely be the spot if any tornadoes or rotation develops. I'll have more tomorrow.
After this front passes the flow across New England looks like it will slow down. This is going to significantly impact the weekend, especially Sunday. A low pressure system will move in late on Saturday and then hang around through Sunday. This should provide periodic rain showers to the region. We probably could use the rain as we haven't had any steady rain in nearly a month or so. We should be able to salvage Saturday, but Sunday looks to be cool and damp.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
Warming up
Temperatures along with the humidity will be climbing through the middle of the week.
Today: Partly to mostly sunny, very slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, highs in the low to mid 80s.
Tonight: Mainly clear, lows in the low to mid 60s south, near 50 north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, again the slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, hot and humid, highs near 90 south, upper 80s north.
Tomorrow night: A few clouds with areas of fog toward dawn, lows in the low 70s south, upper 50s and low 60s north.
Thursday: Partly sunny, hot and humid. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, especially north of the Mass. Pike, highs in the low 90s south, upper 80s north.
Discussion:
The Eastern United States is under the influence of a large area of high pressure. This is provide pleasant conditions to the region. Over the next few days this will shift off shore. As this happens our winds will turn around to the southwest and this will pump hot and humid air into New England.
Today will be our last comfortable day before humidity levels jump up. There will be a bit of upper level instability that will pass over New England this afternoon. This may help to set off a few isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. However the lack of any significant moisture at the surface will severely limit this activity.
As we head into the tomorrow, temperatures will climb on the back side of that high pressure system and ahead of an approaching cold front. This front won't pass through New England until Thursday afternoon. It might make it close enough on Wednesday to set off a few showers and thunderstorms across the interior of New England on Wednesday afternoon, but again this activity will be very spotty in nature. Thursday will be our best chance of showers and thunderstorms as it looks like the cold front will arrive in the afternoon. Hot temperatures and high humidity will add fuel to the cold front and as a result some of the thunderstorms could be severe with high winds and large hail. Since tornadoes are on every one's mind I feel obligated to mention them in some way. Right now it's a bit too early to determine if conditions will be right for tornadoes to develop, should know more tomorrow.
Enjoy the warmth and thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Partly to mostly sunny, very slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, highs in the low to mid 80s.
Tonight: Mainly clear, lows in the low to mid 60s south, near 50 north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, again the slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, hot and humid, highs near 90 south, upper 80s north.
Tomorrow night: A few clouds with areas of fog toward dawn, lows in the low 70s south, upper 50s and low 60s north.
Thursday: Partly sunny, hot and humid. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, especially north of the Mass. Pike, highs in the low 90s south, upper 80s north.
Discussion:
The Eastern United States is under the influence of a large area of high pressure. This is provide pleasant conditions to the region. Over the next few days this will shift off shore. As this happens our winds will turn around to the southwest and this will pump hot and humid air into New England.
Today will be our last comfortable day before humidity levels jump up. There will be a bit of upper level instability that will pass over New England this afternoon. This may help to set off a few isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. However the lack of any significant moisture at the surface will severely limit this activity.
As we head into the tomorrow, temperatures will climb on the back side of that high pressure system and ahead of an approaching cold front. This front won't pass through New England until Thursday afternoon. It might make it close enough on Wednesday to set off a few showers and thunderstorms across the interior of New England on Wednesday afternoon, but again this activity will be very spotty in nature. Thursday will be our best chance of showers and thunderstorms as it looks like the cold front will arrive in the afternoon. Hot temperatures and high humidity will add fuel to the cold front and as a result some of the thunderstorms could be severe with high winds and large hail. Since tornadoes are on every one's mind I feel obligated to mention them in some way. Right now it's a bit too early to determine if conditions will be right for tornadoes to develop, should know more tomorrow.
Enjoy the warmth and thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Saturday, June 4, 2011
Quick morning update
Just a quick update this morning to take most of the mention of showers out of the forecast for tomorrow.
Today: Lots of sunshine. Highs in the low 70s south, upper 60s to near 70 along the coast and north.
Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy, any showers should stay to our west, lows around 50 south, mid and upper 30s north.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny south, partly sunny north, highs in the upper 60s north and south.
Tomorrow night: Mainly clear, lows in the mid 50s south, 40s north.
Monday: Partly sunny, slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, highs in the upper 70s south, low 70s north.
Discussion:
Just wanted to "improve" the forecast for the weekend. It looks like that disturbance that is passing off to our west this weekend will stay to the west and not cause a problem. I have removed the mention of showers from the forecast for Sunday. We will likely see a bit more cloudiness tomorrow, but I don't think there will be any rain drops. Our next chance of precipitation will be on Monday, though that activity will be isolated in nature. A stray shower or thunderstorm may develop in the afternoon thanks another weak disturbance passing through Northern New England. Surface dewpoints will climb a bit on Monday, supplying a limited amount of moisture for this disturbance to tap into.
Enjoy your weekend and thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Lots of sunshine. Highs in the low 70s south, upper 60s to near 70 along the coast and north.
Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy, any showers should stay to our west, lows around 50 south, mid and upper 30s north.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny south, partly sunny north, highs in the upper 60s north and south.
Tomorrow night: Mainly clear, lows in the mid 50s south, 40s north.
Monday: Partly sunny, slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, highs in the upper 70s south, low 70s north.
Discussion:
Just wanted to "improve" the forecast for the weekend. It looks like that disturbance that is passing off to our west this weekend will stay to the west and not cause a problem. I have removed the mention of showers from the forecast for Sunday. We will likely see a bit more cloudiness tomorrow, but I don't think there will be any rain drops. Our next chance of precipitation will be on Monday, though that activity will be isolated in nature. A stray shower or thunderstorm may develop in the afternoon thanks another weak disturbance passing through Northern New England. Surface dewpoints will climb a bit on Monday, supplying a limited amount of moisture for this disturbance to tap into.
Enjoy your weekend and thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Friday, June 3, 2011
Weekend forecast
Another quiet and cool day across New England today, similar story for this weekend.
Today: Plenty of sunshine, breezy, highs around 70 south, low 60s north.
Tonight: Clear, chilly, lows in the mid and upper 40s to low 50s south, mid 30s north.
Tomorrow: Mainly sunny, highs in the low 70s south(away from the coast), upper 60s north and along the coast.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy, lows around 50 south, upper 30s north.
Sunday: Limited sunshine, slight chance of a few showers, highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
Discussion:
We'll have a great finish to the work week here in New England. A good deal of sun today and slightly below normal temperatures. We are dealing with an upper level low and an area of high pressure at the surface currently. As we head into the weekend the surface high will shift a bit to the east and this will allow for a disturbance to dive to the west of the New England on Sunday.
Until that disturbance arrives however, we'll enjoy sunshine and pleasant, but a bit cool temperatures. Tonight and tomorrow morning will be quite chilly, especially in sheltered locations across the interior. Some places may see some frost in the morning. Temperatures will warm up quickly however once the sun comes up though.
The previously mentioned disturbance will pass just to the west of New England on Sunday and will be more of a problem for Upstate NY than it will for us. Regardless, a few showers or sprinkles can't be ruled though, though I believe it will be generally dry.
Early next week the upper level low will push off to the east and will be replace by an upper level ridge. It looks like a few pockets of energy will slide over the top of this ridge and could provide a few showers and thunderstorms during the first half of next week and temperatures should be warmer than what we will have this weekend.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Plenty of sunshine, breezy, highs around 70 south, low 60s north.
Tonight: Clear, chilly, lows in the mid and upper 40s to low 50s south, mid 30s north.
Tomorrow: Mainly sunny, highs in the low 70s south(away from the coast), upper 60s north and along the coast.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy, lows around 50 south, upper 30s north.
Sunday: Limited sunshine, slight chance of a few showers, highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
Discussion:
We'll have a great finish to the work week here in New England. A good deal of sun today and slightly below normal temperatures. We are dealing with an upper level low and an area of high pressure at the surface currently. As we head into the weekend the surface high will shift a bit to the east and this will allow for a disturbance to dive to the west of the New England on Sunday.
Until that disturbance arrives however, we'll enjoy sunshine and pleasant, but a bit cool temperatures. Tonight and tomorrow morning will be quite chilly, especially in sheltered locations across the interior. Some places may see some frost in the morning. Temperatures will warm up quickly however once the sun comes up though.
The previously mentioned disturbance will pass just to the west of New England on Sunday and will be more of a problem for Upstate NY than it will for us. Regardless, a few showers or sprinkles can't be ruled though, though I believe it will be generally dry.
Early next week the upper level low will push off to the east and will be replace by an upper level ridge. It looks like a few pockets of energy will slide over the top of this ridge and could provide a few showers and thunderstorms during the first half of next week and temperatures should be warmer than what we will have this weekend.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, June 2, 2011
Cooler and drier
Cooler and drier air will prevail here in New England for the foreseeable future.
Today: Partly sunny, more clouds north with a few isolated showers in the higher terrain, windy, highs in the upper 60s and low 70s south, low 60s north.
Tonight: Becoming clear, lows in the low 50s south, upper 30s to near 40 north.
Tomorrow: Mainly sunny, highs around 70 south, low 60s north.
Tomorrow night: Clear, cool, lows in the upper 40s and low 50s south, 30s north.
Saturday: Partly sunny, highs in the low 70s south, near 70 north.
Discussion:
Low pressure aloft and high pressure at the surface will dominate our weather for the next 5 days or so. On the backside of the cold front cooler air is blowing into New England and will set up shop right into the upcoming weekend. A welcome relief to some who had to deal with the worst of the weather yesterday. There were 3 reported tornadoes near the Springfield, MA area, two of which were filmed so those can likely be confirmed. The 3rd was in a less populated area and will be investigated to see if it actually was tornado or not.
But back to the next few days. We'll see plenty of sunshine, especially after today as a few showers might pop up across the higher terrain. As a matter of fact, the summit of Mt. Washington reported some snow showers this morning, along with wind gusts to 81 mph. That's brisk.
Our next chance of precipitation will come on Sunday and it doesn't look very organized. The atmosphere in general will be pretty dry so most of the rain will evaporate before reaching the ground.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Partly sunny, more clouds north with a few isolated showers in the higher terrain, windy, highs in the upper 60s and low 70s south, low 60s north.
Tonight: Becoming clear, lows in the low 50s south, upper 30s to near 40 north.
Tomorrow: Mainly sunny, highs around 70 south, low 60s north.
Tomorrow night: Clear, cool, lows in the upper 40s and low 50s south, 30s north.
Saturday: Partly sunny, highs in the low 70s south, near 70 north.
Discussion:
Low pressure aloft and high pressure at the surface will dominate our weather for the next 5 days or so. On the backside of the cold front cooler air is blowing into New England and will set up shop right into the upcoming weekend. A welcome relief to some who had to deal with the worst of the weather yesterday. There were 3 reported tornadoes near the Springfield, MA area, two of which were filmed so those can likely be confirmed. The 3rd was in a less populated area and will be investigated to see if it actually was tornado or not.
But back to the next few days. We'll see plenty of sunshine, especially after today as a few showers might pop up across the higher terrain. As a matter of fact, the summit of Mt. Washington reported some snow showers this morning, along with wind gusts to 81 mph. That's brisk.
Our next chance of precipitation will come on Sunday and it doesn't look very organized. The atmosphere in general will be pretty dry so most of the rain will evaporate before reaching the ground.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
A good day for thunderstorms
Severe weather is a good possibility today, on top of what has already happened. The combination of high amounts of low level moisture, strong sunshine and an approaching cold front will kick off a few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon.
I'm expecting two more rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop today. One during the middle of the afternoon and then another during the evening hours. It looks like Western MA along with much of VT and NH will be under the bulls'eye today These are the areas that have already had some rain this morning, which has added even more moisture to the atmosphere. The Storm Prediction Center has put the region under a "Slight" risk for severe thunderstorms today. I'm expecting that some locations will be under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch this afternoon, if not a Tornado Watch. A Tornado Watch might be overkill, but conditions might be favorable enough for a few weak tornadoes to develop. If not, there will likely be some rotation in some of the stronger storms today. The biggest threats however for today are large hail and gusty winds.
So just be careful this afternoon if you are going to be outside. Keep an eye and ear to the sky and keep tabs on your favorite local new station. You can also follow me on facebook @ http://www.facebook.com/Jontheweatherman Go there and click Like. I'll will update as often as I can with watches and warnings that are issued. Work comes first however. :-)
After today our weather will be much cooler and drier into the start of the upcoming weekend. Sorry about change in blog today, I had a long one all typed out and then had browser problems and lost it all.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K
I'm expecting two more rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop today. One during the middle of the afternoon and then another during the evening hours. It looks like Western MA along with much of VT and NH will be under the bulls'eye today These are the areas that have already had some rain this morning, which has added even more moisture to the atmosphere. The Storm Prediction Center has put the region under a "Slight" risk for severe thunderstorms today. I'm expecting that some locations will be under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch this afternoon, if not a Tornado Watch. A Tornado Watch might be overkill, but conditions might be favorable enough for a few weak tornadoes to develop. If not, there will likely be some rotation in some of the stronger storms today. The biggest threats however for today are large hail and gusty winds.
So just be careful this afternoon if you are going to be outside. Keep an eye and ear to the sky and keep tabs on your favorite local new station. You can also follow me on facebook @ http://www.facebook.com/Jontheweatherman Go there and click Like. I'll will update as often as I can with watches and warnings that are issued. Work comes first however. :-)
After today our weather will be much cooler and drier into the start of the upcoming weekend. Sorry about change in blog today, I had a long one all typed out and then had browser problems and lost it all.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Cool down coming
Two more warm days on tap before temperatures settle back into the 70s with lower humidity.
Today: Mostly sunny, warm, highs in the low to mid 80s south, upper 70s along the coast, near 80 north.
Tonight: Clear, areas of fog toward dawn, lows in the upper 50s to near 60 south, near 50 north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, some could be severe, highs in the mid and upper 80s south, low 80s north.
Tomorrow night: Showers and thunderstorms taper off in the evening, becoming partly cloudy, lows in the mid 50s south, upper 40s north.
Thursday: Lots of sunshine, cooler, highs in the mid and upper 70s south, mid and upper 60s north.
Discussion:
We are still under the influence of high pressure here in New England today. This will allow for plenty of sunshine today and another days of warm temperatures. As we head into tonight and tomorrow there will be a cold front approaching the region. Ahead of this front, dew points will get a bit higher making for a humid day tomorrow, starting with patchy fog tomorrow morning. The front will approach the region during the afternoon hours, which is prime timing for showers and thunderstorms to develop. The orientation and motion of the front will be conducive to most areas seeing the showers and thunderstorms. The front will be moving from northwest to southeast. Normally cold fronts move in directly from the west or from a southwesterly direction, this typically keeps most of Southern New England free of showers and storms. A southerly wind brings stabilizing air in from the Atlantic. Tomorrow the winds will be more westerly ahead of the front, so the stabilizing effect won't be as prominent. Depending on how much sunshine we see before the front arrives will determine how unstable the atmosphere will be. So just a heads up for tomorrow, I'll elaborate more with tomorrow's update.
Beyond tomorrow, we'll have another stretch of dry weather but this time temperatures will be cooler and there will be little to no humidity. An upper level low will settle in over the Northeast keeping conditions cooler, but we should stay mainly sunny. This looks like it will last right into the first half of the weekend. There could be a few showers around on Sunday, but we'll have to wait and see if that feature is still in the forecast models in the coming days.
Thanks for reading! And remember, tomorrow is the start of hurricane season.
-Jon K.
Today: Mostly sunny, warm, highs in the low to mid 80s south, upper 70s along the coast, near 80 north.
Tonight: Clear, areas of fog toward dawn, lows in the upper 50s to near 60 south, near 50 north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, some could be severe, highs in the mid and upper 80s south, low 80s north.
Tomorrow night: Showers and thunderstorms taper off in the evening, becoming partly cloudy, lows in the mid 50s south, upper 40s north.
Thursday: Lots of sunshine, cooler, highs in the mid and upper 70s south, mid and upper 60s north.
Discussion:
We are still under the influence of high pressure here in New England today. This will allow for plenty of sunshine today and another days of warm temperatures. As we head into tonight and tomorrow there will be a cold front approaching the region. Ahead of this front, dew points will get a bit higher making for a humid day tomorrow, starting with patchy fog tomorrow morning. The front will approach the region during the afternoon hours, which is prime timing for showers and thunderstorms to develop. The orientation and motion of the front will be conducive to most areas seeing the showers and thunderstorms. The front will be moving from northwest to southeast. Normally cold fronts move in directly from the west or from a southwesterly direction, this typically keeps most of Southern New England free of showers and storms. A southerly wind brings stabilizing air in from the Atlantic. Tomorrow the winds will be more westerly ahead of the front, so the stabilizing effect won't be as prominent. Depending on how much sunshine we see before the front arrives will determine how unstable the atmosphere will be. So just a heads up for tomorrow, I'll elaborate more with tomorrow's update.
Beyond tomorrow, we'll have another stretch of dry weather but this time temperatures will be cooler and there will be little to no humidity. An upper level low will settle in over the Northeast keeping conditions cooler, but we should stay mainly sunny. This looks like it will last right into the first half of the weekend. There could be a few showers around on Sunday, but we'll have to wait and see if that feature is still in the forecast models in the coming days.
Thanks for reading! And remember, tomorrow is the start of hurricane season.
-Jon K.
Friday, May 27, 2011
Severe Weather threat today
I'm expecting some strong storms across New England, particularly across the interior of New England.
Today: Partly to mostly sunny, showers and thunderstorms will develop during the middle of the day across Central and Eastern NY and push eastward. Small hail, high winds, heavy rain and slight chance of an isolated tornado or two. Warm and humid, highs in the low to mid 80s.
Tonight: Any showers and thunderstorms taper off during the evening, becoming partly cloudy, lows in the 60s south, 50s north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Tomorrow night: Mainly clear, lows in the 60s south, 50s north.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny, warm, highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Memorial Day: Partly sunny, slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Discussion:
There is likely to be some rough and tumble weather developing this afternoon across portions of New England. Nothing like what the middle of the country has had to deal with fortunately. A low pressure system will swing a weakening cold front through the region this afternoon. Along and ahead of this front showers and thunderstorms will develop and press eastward. Western New England into VT, Southwestern NH northeastward into Western Maine are spots that are under the greatest risk. Further south, timing of the fronts arrival and southerly wind will bring cooler air into Southern New England will limit the threat of showers and thunderstorms, especially the severity of those storms.
Storms will dissipate during the evening hours and then we are in for a beautiful weekend. There might be enough instability left behind tomorrow to kick off a shower or storm tomorrow afternoon, but the activity will be widely scattered. Other than that, we are looking at a good deal of sunshine and mid summer like temperatures here right through Memorial Day. Monday may also give us a stray shower or thunderstorm, but again, isolated in nature.
I might not be updating this every day over the weekend. If the forecast changes toward the negative, meaning more unsettled weather than I originally expected, I'll update the blog. If you don't see an update, expect the status quo.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Partly to mostly sunny, showers and thunderstorms will develop during the middle of the day across Central and Eastern NY and push eastward. Small hail, high winds, heavy rain and slight chance of an isolated tornado or two. Warm and humid, highs in the low to mid 80s.
Tonight: Any showers and thunderstorms taper off during the evening, becoming partly cloudy, lows in the 60s south, 50s north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Tomorrow night: Mainly clear, lows in the 60s south, 50s north.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny, warm, highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Memorial Day: Partly sunny, slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Discussion:
There is likely to be some rough and tumble weather developing this afternoon across portions of New England. Nothing like what the middle of the country has had to deal with fortunately. A low pressure system will swing a weakening cold front through the region this afternoon. Along and ahead of this front showers and thunderstorms will develop and press eastward. Western New England into VT, Southwestern NH northeastward into Western Maine are spots that are under the greatest risk. Further south, timing of the fronts arrival and southerly wind will bring cooler air into Southern New England will limit the threat of showers and thunderstorms, especially the severity of those storms.
Storms will dissipate during the evening hours and then we are in for a beautiful weekend. There might be enough instability left behind tomorrow to kick off a shower or storm tomorrow afternoon, but the activity will be widely scattered. Other than that, we are looking at a good deal of sunshine and mid summer like temperatures here right through Memorial Day. Monday may also give us a stray shower or thunderstorm, but again, isolated in nature.
I might not be updating this every day over the weekend. If the forecast changes toward the negative, meaning more unsettled weather than I originally expected, I'll update the blog. If you don't see an update, expect the status quo.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Yesterday continued...
Another near perfect day on tap for New England though a few isolated showers and storms are possible far inland.
Today: Plenty of sunshine, warm and a bit humid, isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon across the interior of New England, highs in the low to mid 80s, upper 70s coast and north.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, patchy fog toward morning, lows in the 60s south, 50s north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon south, showers and thunderstorms likely in Central and Northern New England, some could be severe, highs in the 80s south, near 80 north.
Tomorrow night: Maybe an evening shower or storm, otherwise partly cloudy, lows around 60 south, 50s north.
Saturday: Partly sunny, isolated showers and thunderstorms possible inland, highs near 80.
Sunday/Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, dry, highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Discussion:
We do have a low pressure system approaching, but this shouldn't have too much of a negative impact on the holiday weekend. It may be an issue for today and tomorrow, but after that we are generally in the clear. Most of New England is going to stay dry today as the low and it's cold front will only get close enough to affect Upstate NY and possibly Western MA and VT. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop in the early afternoon across Western and Central NY, which will then push eastward. By the time the line of storms reaches New England then sun will be on it's way down and the storms will be running out of energy. Because of that, we really won't see much activity here today.
Tomorrow is a different story as the storms will initiate closer to or in New England. Based on the set up of the atmosphere, the activity will be mostly confined to Western, Central and Northern New England. Southern areas will likely stay dry due to southwesterly wind bringing some cooler air in from the Atlantic near Long Island. This will have stabilizing effect on the atmosphere over Southern New England. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms should pop up during the early to mid afternoon and then push off to the northeast. High winds, small hail, dangerous lightning and heavy rain are expected in some of the stronger storms. Can't rule out an isolated tornado, but weather conditions should not be overly conducive storms of that nature.
Once we hit the weekend conditions will calm down. A stray shower or storm will still be possible on Saturday, but beyond that we should be in the clear. The low pressure system will lift further off to the north and east leaving high pressure in control. We will have a good deal of sunshine and warm temperatures right through Memorial Day.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Plenty of sunshine, warm and a bit humid, isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon across the interior of New England, highs in the low to mid 80s, upper 70s coast and north.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, patchy fog toward morning, lows in the 60s south, 50s north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon south, showers and thunderstorms likely in Central and Northern New England, some could be severe, highs in the 80s south, near 80 north.
Tomorrow night: Maybe an evening shower or storm, otherwise partly cloudy, lows around 60 south, 50s north.
Saturday: Partly sunny, isolated showers and thunderstorms possible inland, highs near 80.
Sunday/Monday: Partly to mostly sunny, dry, highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Discussion:
We do have a low pressure system approaching, but this shouldn't have too much of a negative impact on the holiday weekend. It may be an issue for today and tomorrow, but after that we are generally in the clear. Most of New England is going to stay dry today as the low and it's cold front will only get close enough to affect Upstate NY and possibly Western MA and VT. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop in the early afternoon across Western and Central NY, which will then push eastward. By the time the line of storms reaches New England then sun will be on it's way down and the storms will be running out of energy. Because of that, we really won't see much activity here today.
Tomorrow is a different story as the storms will initiate closer to or in New England. Based on the set up of the atmosphere, the activity will be mostly confined to Western, Central and Northern New England. Southern areas will likely stay dry due to southwesterly wind bringing some cooler air in from the Atlantic near Long Island. This will have stabilizing effect on the atmosphere over Southern New England. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms should pop up during the early to mid afternoon and then push off to the northeast. High winds, small hail, dangerous lightning and heavy rain are expected in some of the stronger storms. Can't rule out an isolated tornado, but weather conditions should not be overly conducive storms of that nature.
Once we hit the weekend conditions will calm down. A stray shower or storm will still be possible on Saturday, but beyond that we should be in the clear. The low pressure system will lift further off to the north and east leaving high pressure in control. We will have a good deal of sunshine and warm temperatures right through Memorial Day.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Finally!
Our weather is finally turning around, for the time being, enjoy it while it's here.
Today: Lots of sunshine, highs in the mid and upper 70s inland, near 70 along the coast.
Tonight: Mainly clear, lows in the low to mid 50s south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, especially in Western New England, highs near 80 south, mid 70s north.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy, lows in the low 60s south, 50s north.
Friday: Partly sunny, again the slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm inland, highs in the lower 80s south, 70s north.
Discussion:
After the cold front moved through last night, we are going to be clear of any drizzle, fog and mist for at least a week. We are in between storm systems today and this is going to be provide pleasant conditions to the region. Inland areas of New England will have the best weather today. A seabreeze will develop along coastal sections which will keep temperatures from getting too warm this afternoon.
As we head into the day tomorrow, another storm system will be moving closer. However, it never really moves into New England. The low pressure system will move off to the north and west of New England into Quebec and then will stay there for a few days. This is a pretty good spot for a low to set up shop. In this position our winds will stay out of the south and west, which is a warm wind. The downside to the low being there will be some instability in the atmosphere. Fortunately, it doesn't look like a washout any day over the next 6 days or so.
This low will introduce the chance, generally less than 40%, of showers and thunderstorms developing with the heating of the day. This starts tomorrow and will really only be a problem for the interior of New England. Western MA, VT, Central and Northern New Hampshire will have the highest chances of seeing showers and storms. Overall our weather will be quite nice right through the upcoming holiday weekend!
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Lots of sunshine, highs in the mid and upper 70s inland, near 70 along the coast.
Tonight: Mainly clear, lows in the low to mid 50s south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, especially in Western New England, highs near 80 south, mid 70s north.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy, lows in the low 60s south, 50s north.
Friday: Partly sunny, again the slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm inland, highs in the lower 80s south, 70s north.
Discussion:
After the cold front moved through last night, we are going to be clear of any drizzle, fog and mist for at least a week. We are in between storm systems today and this is going to be provide pleasant conditions to the region. Inland areas of New England will have the best weather today. A seabreeze will develop along coastal sections which will keep temperatures from getting too warm this afternoon.
As we head into the day tomorrow, another storm system will be moving closer. However, it never really moves into New England. The low pressure system will move off to the north and west of New England into Quebec and then will stay there for a few days. This is a pretty good spot for a low to set up shop. In this position our winds will stay out of the south and west, which is a warm wind. The downside to the low being there will be some instability in the atmosphere. Fortunately, it doesn't look like a washout any day over the next 6 days or so.
This low will introduce the chance, generally less than 40%, of showers and thunderstorms developing with the heating of the day. This starts tomorrow and will really only be a problem for the interior of New England. Western MA, VT, Central and Northern New Hampshire will have the highest chances of seeing showers and storms. Overall our weather will be quite nice right through the upcoming holiday weekend!
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Bye Bye Fog and Mist
Today should be last day we see this mist, drizzle and fog for at least 5 days, probably longer
Today: Morning clouds and fog then some hazy sun, showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Some storms could be severe with high winds, small hail and heavy rain, especially in Southern New England, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms come to an end in the evening, becoming partly cloudy, lows in the upper 50s to near 60 south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tomorrow night: Mainly clear, lows in the 50s south, near 40 north.
Thursday: Partly sunny, slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, highs in the 70s.
Discussion:
Say good riddance to the ocean influence that we've been dealing with for the past 2 weeks. A cold front is moving toward New England today, the combination of this and a strong sun will burn off the clouds. Once those clouds burn off, it will be warm and humid today and as a result, we should see a few thunderstorms develop. Atmospheric conditions are conducive to severe thunderstorms today, but these strong storms should be isolated in nature. Most of this activity should be restricted to Southern New England and probably south of the Mass. Pike.
The front will clear the region this evening, taking the showers and thunderstorms with it. After that, we are looking at much more seasonable and pleasant conditions, even if there will be a few showers around at times. Wednesday will be nice, plenty of sunshine and mild, coolest temperatures along the coast. Thursday should also be generally nice, though a few showers and storms may develop across the interior thanks to a low pressure system approaching from the west.
Further out into the week and into the weekend, it looks like it is going to be OK. The low pressure system that is approaching on Thursday will be around, but not significantly impacting the region all the time. Temperatures will be warm and it will be a bit muggy as well. There are going to be a few showers and thunderstorms around at times too. I'm not going to get too in depth beyond Thursday, but right now, the weekend doesn't look like a washout by any means.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Morning clouds and fog then some hazy sun, showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Some storms could be severe with high winds, small hail and heavy rain, especially in Southern New England, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms come to an end in the evening, becoming partly cloudy, lows in the upper 50s to near 60 south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tomorrow night: Mainly clear, lows in the 50s south, near 40 north.
Thursday: Partly sunny, slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, highs in the 70s.
Discussion:
Say good riddance to the ocean influence that we've been dealing with for the past 2 weeks. A cold front is moving toward New England today, the combination of this and a strong sun will burn off the clouds. Once those clouds burn off, it will be warm and humid today and as a result, we should see a few thunderstorms develop. Atmospheric conditions are conducive to severe thunderstorms today, but these strong storms should be isolated in nature. Most of this activity should be restricted to Southern New England and probably south of the Mass. Pike.
The front will clear the region this evening, taking the showers and thunderstorms with it. After that, we are looking at much more seasonable and pleasant conditions, even if there will be a few showers around at times. Wednesday will be nice, plenty of sunshine and mild, coolest temperatures along the coast. Thursday should also be generally nice, though a few showers and storms may develop across the interior thanks to a low pressure system approaching from the west.
Further out into the week and into the weekend, it looks like it is going to be OK. The low pressure system that is approaching on Thursday will be around, but not significantly impacting the region all the time. Temperatures will be warm and it will be a bit muggy as well. There are going to be a few showers and thunderstorms around at times too. I'm not going to get too in depth beyond Thursday, but right now, the weekend doesn't look like a washout by any means.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Still getting better
I'll admit, it was much nicer yesterday than I thought it was going to be, I expect that trend to continue today.
Today: Mostly cloudy, a few breaks of sun at times. Areas of drizzle this morning with the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon, highs in the 60s to near 70.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, patchy drizzle possible, lows in the low 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.
Tomorrow: Mix of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms possible, highs near 70 north and south.
Tomorrow night: Partly to mostly cloudy, lows near 50 south, low 40s north.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, maybe some AM drizzle, highs in the low 60s south, upper 60s north.
Discussion:
After a much improved day yesterday, I'm expecting a bit more improvement today. We are of course dealing with a marine layer that moved back in after the sun went down last night. However, as the sun gets higher in the sky, it will start to burn off the low clouds, drizzle and fog. It should start in Southern NE and then work it's way north. Places in Northern New England haven't suffered as much from this and will likely break out into the sunshine first today.
However, as a result of the heating from the sun, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop during the course of the day. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few severe thunderstorm warnings issued today either, and with all the rotation from this upper level low, a stronger storm may be able to produce a weak, very weak tornado. The chances of this are pretty low, but I feel this setup would be the most conducive to tornadoes that we will probably see this year. We would need some pretty strong heating from the sun to make this happen though.
Patchy fog and drizzle will likely try to come back in tonight after the sun goes down, but not to the same extent that it did last night. Even more sunshine should be seen tomorrow and then we will be probably see more showers and thunderstorms develop again.
Sunday is going to be an interesting day. The forecast models are all over the place with what is going to happen. Another storm system will be approaching New England on Sunday. Some of the models try to bring the fog/mist/drizzle back in. I'm not so sure that is going to happen. We may see some in the morning, but I think the southwesterly winds that will develop and the strong sun will beat this back and we should see some sunshine. Temperatures may be a bit cooler than what we will have on Saturday though.
Look for more showers on Sunday night into Monday, but temperatures will be far warmer than we had all this week.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Mostly cloudy, a few breaks of sun at times. Areas of drizzle this morning with the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon, highs in the 60s to near 70.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, patchy drizzle possible, lows in the low 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.
Tomorrow: Mix of clouds and sun, showers and thunderstorms possible, highs near 70 north and south.
Tomorrow night: Partly to mostly cloudy, lows near 50 south, low 40s north.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, maybe some AM drizzle, highs in the low 60s south, upper 60s north.
Discussion:
After a much improved day yesterday, I'm expecting a bit more improvement today. We are of course dealing with a marine layer that moved back in after the sun went down last night. However, as the sun gets higher in the sky, it will start to burn off the low clouds, drizzle and fog. It should start in Southern NE and then work it's way north. Places in Northern New England haven't suffered as much from this and will likely break out into the sunshine first today.
However, as a result of the heating from the sun, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop during the course of the day. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few severe thunderstorm warnings issued today either, and with all the rotation from this upper level low, a stronger storm may be able to produce a weak, very weak tornado. The chances of this are pretty low, but I feel this setup would be the most conducive to tornadoes that we will probably see this year. We would need some pretty strong heating from the sun to make this happen though.
Patchy fog and drizzle will likely try to come back in tonight after the sun goes down, but not to the same extent that it did last night. Even more sunshine should be seen tomorrow and then we will be probably see more showers and thunderstorms develop again.
Sunday is going to be an interesting day. The forecast models are all over the place with what is going to happen. Another storm system will be approaching New England on Sunday. Some of the models try to bring the fog/mist/drizzle back in. I'm not so sure that is going to happen. We may see some in the morning, but I think the southwesterly winds that will develop and the strong sun will beat this back and we should see some sunshine. Temperatures may be a bit cooler than what we will have on Saturday though.
Look for more showers on Sunday night into Monday, but temperatures will be far warmer than we had all this week.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Better weather is coming, just not yet...
Still under the influence of a marine layer and I'm not going to "wish cast" this front out of here before it's ready to go.
Today: Cloudy, patchy drizzle and more showers, especially this afternoon, highs in the upper 50s to low 60s south, near 60 north.
Tonight: Cloudy, showers possible, lows in the 50s south, upper 40s north.
Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy, showers possible, patchy drizzle as well, milder, highs in the low to mid 60s.
Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy, chance of showers, lows in the low 50s south, upper 40s north.
Saturday: More clouds than sun, showers and isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, highs in the 60s north and south.
Discussion:
More of the same here in New England, though it is gradually getting warmer. We are still under the influence of a large area of low pressure in the Eastern United States. There is a frontal boundary that is still just to our south that has continually provided an easterly wind. This wind coming in off the ocean has kept temperatures down and brought showers and drizzle into the region. Fortunately, this low is weakening and starting to shift. As a result, the easterly wind isn't as strong and the cloudiness is not as dense. This will allow temperatures to get a few degrees warmer today and tomorrow as well.
However, I don't want to seem too optimistic here. I want to see some sun as much as the next person, but this cloudiness and air mass in place is going to take some time to move out. Saturday will probably seem like the nicest day we have had all year, but we still probably won't see much sunshine and rain is a good possibility. It really won't be until Sunday where we are likely to stay generally dry, though how much sun we will see remains to be seen. I guess I've been burned too many time by trying to rush the low clouds, fog and drizzle out of New England in the past and this time I'm not going to do that. I hope I'm wrong and that we see some significant improvement tomorrow. At this point however, I'm expecting Sunday will be the day that we finally break through.
Next week looks much much better. Southwesterly flow though the lower levels of the atmosphere will keep our temperatures mild. Looks like a cold front will slide through around Tuesday that may bring some showers and storms, but we will dry up right after that front. So like I said in the title, better weather is coming, it just requires bit more patience.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Cloudy, patchy drizzle and more showers, especially this afternoon, highs in the upper 50s to low 60s south, near 60 north.
Tonight: Cloudy, showers possible, lows in the 50s south, upper 40s north.
Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy, showers possible, patchy drizzle as well, milder, highs in the low to mid 60s.
Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy, chance of showers, lows in the low 50s south, upper 40s north.
Saturday: More clouds than sun, showers and isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, highs in the 60s north and south.
Discussion:
More of the same here in New England, though it is gradually getting warmer. We are still under the influence of a large area of low pressure in the Eastern United States. There is a frontal boundary that is still just to our south that has continually provided an easterly wind. This wind coming in off the ocean has kept temperatures down and brought showers and drizzle into the region. Fortunately, this low is weakening and starting to shift. As a result, the easterly wind isn't as strong and the cloudiness is not as dense. This will allow temperatures to get a few degrees warmer today and tomorrow as well.
However, I don't want to seem too optimistic here. I want to see some sun as much as the next person, but this cloudiness and air mass in place is going to take some time to move out. Saturday will probably seem like the nicest day we have had all year, but we still probably won't see much sunshine and rain is a good possibility. It really won't be until Sunday where we are likely to stay generally dry, though how much sun we will see remains to be seen. I guess I've been burned too many time by trying to rush the low clouds, fog and drizzle out of New England in the past and this time I'm not going to do that. I hope I'm wrong and that we see some significant improvement tomorrow. At this point however, I'm expecting Sunday will be the day that we finally break through.
Next week looks much much better. Southwesterly flow though the lower levels of the atmosphere will keep our temperatures mild. Looks like a cold front will slide through around Tuesday that may bring some showers and storms, but we will dry up right after that front. So like I said in the title, better weather is coming, it just requires bit more patience.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Spring time
This weather is terrible. You know it, I know it. Also, my apologies on the lack of blog recently, took some time off.
Today: Cloudy with drizzle and rain showers, highs in the 50s.
Tonight: More rain and drizzle, lows around 50 south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: More of the same, showers and drizzle, highs in the mid 50s to near 60 south, low 50s north.
Tomorrow night: Cloudy with the chance of showers, lows near 50 south, 40s north.
Friday: Continued cloudy, chance of showers, a bit warmer, highs in the low 60s.
Discussion:
I'm like the rest of you, I'm ready for some sunshine. However, Mother Nature is not quite done giving us a healthy dose of New England Springlike weather. The weather feature that is responsible for all of this is a large low pressure system across the Eastern US. This is a "cut-off" low pressure system. This means that is a removed from the overall flow of air around the Earth. It has no driving force to move it, so it is just sitting there, spinning. It will continue to rotate showers and cool air into New England through the rest of the work week.
It is gradually losing strength though. Over the next couple of days, temperatures will be slowly warming and the amount of precipitation we will see will be lessened. Instead of the low actually moving away, it will essentially start to fill in. The basic dynamics of the atmosphere function as follows: "Air moves from high pressure areas to low pressure areas." Normally low pressure systems can "stay alive" by steadily moving, slowing down the process of filling in. However, when a low gets cut off, it doesn't have the luxury of staying ahead of the air trying to fill up the low spot in the atmosphere.
So much of the same through the day on Friday. Conditions should improve on Saturday and I expect to see some sunshine. This however will likely lead to more rain. A moist layer at the surface and a quick heating from the sun will lead to instability. This should produce some downpours and a few thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon. Sunday is going to be the best day, can't rule out an isolated shower or two, but with high pressure build in, it should inhibit lift in the atmosphere.
We just need to make it through a couple more days and then we should be rewarded with a few days of pleasant conditions here in New England.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Cloudy with drizzle and rain showers, highs in the 50s.
Tonight: More rain and drizzle, lows around 50 south, 40s north.
Tomorrow: More of the same, showers and drizzle, highs in the mid 50s to near 60 south, low 50s north.
Tomorrow night: Cloudy with the chance of showers, lows near 50 south, 40s north.
Friday: Continued cloudy, chance of showers, a bit warmer, highs in the low 60s.
Discussion:
I'm like the rest of you, I'm ready for some sunshine. However, Mother Nature is not quite done giving us a healthy dose of New England Springlike weather. The weather feature that is responsible for all of this is a large low pressure system across the Eastern US. This is a "cut-off" low pressure system. This means that is a removed from the overall flow of air around the Earth. It has no driving force to move it, so it is just sitting there, spinning. It will continue to rotate showers and cool air into New England through the rest of the work week.
It is gradually losing strength though. Over the next couple of days, temperatures will be slowly warming and the amount of precipitation we will see will be lessened. Instead of the low actually moving away, it will essentially start to fill in. The basic dynamics of the atmosphere function as follows: "Air moves from high pressure areas to low pressure areas." Normally low pressure systems can "stay alive" by steadily moving, slowing down the process of filling in. However, when a low gets cut off, it doesn't have the luxury of staying ahead of the air trying to fill up the low spot in the atmosphere.
So much of the same through the day on Friday. Conditions should improve on Saturday and I expect to see some sunshine. This however will likely lead to more rain. A moist layer at the surface and a quick heating from the sun will lead to instability. This should produce some downpours and a few thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon. Sunday is going to be the best day, can't rule out an isolated shower or two, but with high pressure build in, it should inhibit lift in the atmosphere.
We just need to make it through a couple more days and then we should be rewarded with a few days of pleasant conditions here in New England.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Friday, May 6, 2011
Beautiful Friday
A downright gorgeous day today will be followed up with a decent weekend, for the most part.
Today: Lots of sunshine, mild, highs around 70 south, mid 60s north.
Tonight: High clouds build in, lows in the upper 40s to near 50 south, low to mid 30s north.
Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy, a few breaks of sun, chance of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorms, highs in the mid 60s north and south.
Tomorrow night: Decreasing clouds, lows in the upper 40s to near 50 south, 30s north.
Sunday: Partly sunny, highs in the low to mid 60s north and south.
Discussion:
We are in between storm systems today and this is going to supply some nearly perfect weather for New England. Plenty of sunshine through some high thin clouds and temperatures a few degrees above the normal. Unfortunately this will really only last for today as another system is approaching. As we head into the day tomorrow, a low pressure system will be passing to our southeast. This will be close enough to add some instability to the atmosphere. As temperatures warm up throughout the day, showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms will develop. The good news is that not everyone will have wet weather tomorrow. It's not going to be a wide spread event, so I expect some places to see little or no rain. Look for the rain to develop toward the middle of the day and then taper off during the early evening hours.
Conditions will improve for Sunday as the storm system pushes further out to sea. There will still be a few clouds around, so we won't have full sunshine, but in general it will be a pleasant day. Right now it looks like the weather we will see on Sunday is what we can expect for much of next week. There is one feature we need to keep a close eye on however.
The low pressure system that will pass by to our south tomorrow might try to retrograde back toward New England early next week. If that is the case, the forecast will change considerably. If it does move back toward the west, we could be looking at drizzle, fog and mist with cool temperatures for a few days during the middle of next week. The forecast models generally have a tough time forecasting these scenarios, especially when it is more than 4 days out from the current time. It would be nice to have a Spring here New England with a few of these retrograding storms. I'll keep an eye on this over the next few days.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Lots of sunshine, mild, highs around 70 south, mid 60s north.
Tonight: High clouds build in, lows in the upper 40s to near 50 south, low to mid 30s north.
Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy, a few breaks of sun, chance of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorms, highs in the mid 60s north and south.
Tomorrow night: Decreasing clouds, lows in the upper 40s to near 50 south, 30s north.
Sunday: Partly sunny, highs in the low to mid 60s north and south.
Discussion:
We are in between storm systems today and this is going to supply some nearly perfect weather for New England. Plenty of sunshine through some high thin clouds and temperatures a few degrees above the normal. Unfortunately this will really only last for today as another system is approaching. As we head into the day tomorrow, a low pressure system will be passing to our southeast. This will be close enough to add some instability to the atmosphere. As temperatures warm up throughout the day, showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms will develop. The good news is that not everyone will have wet weather tomorrow. It's not going to be a wide spread event, so I expect some places to see little or no rain. Look for the rain to develop toward the middle of the day and then taper off during the early evening hours.
Conditions will improve for Sunday as the storm system pushes further out to sea. There will still be a few clouds around, so we won't have full sunshine, but in general it will be a pleasant day. Right now it looks like the weather we will see on Sunday is what we can expect for much of next week. There is one feature we need to keep a close eye on however.
The low pressure system that will pass by to our south tomorrow might try to retrograde back toward New England early next week. If that is the case, the forecast will change considerably. If it does move back toward the west, we could be looking at drizzle, fog and mist with cool temperatures for a few days during the middle of next week. The forecast models generally have a tough time forecasting these scenarios, especially when it is more than 4 days out from the current time. It would be nice to have a Spring here New England with a few of these retrograding storms. I'll keep an eye on this over the next few days.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Looking mostly dry
Cooler air aloft will help kick off showers across New England today and then maybe some more rain on Saturday.
Today: Limited sunshine, chance of showers, especially across the interior of New England, highs in thd 50s south, upper 40s north.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, maybe a rain or snow shower north, lows in the upper 30s and low 40s south, low 30s north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, slight chance of a shower north, highs in the upper 60s south, around 60 north.
Tomorrow night: Partly to mostly cloudy, in the upper 40s to near 50 south, 30s north.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, chance of a showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm, highs in the low 60s both north and south.
Discussion:
After the cold front moved through yesterday, we are left with a cold pool of air over our heads. This will lead to some instability today as any sun we see during the first half of the day will heat up the surface and that warm air will quickly lift into that colder air. Remember, warm air rises. This will create more clouds and tap into the remaining moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere to create rain showers. I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few snow showers across the higher elevations of New England today either. This includes tonight, where I think surface temperatures may get cool enough for snow to reach down into the valleys of Northern New England.
The cooler air will dissipate tomorrow, though a few isolated showers may still be possible across Northern NE. It will be much warmer tomorrow as well thanks to a change in wind direction at the surface, from northwesterly to a west or southwest wind.
Saturday remains a bit of a tricky forecast. There will be a low pressure system passing to the south of New England. It looks like it gets close enough to trigger scattered showers across the region, particularly Saturday afternoon. For now, I've gone heavy on the cloudiness. If we get more sunshine than I expect currently, it will be warmer and I think our chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase with the more sunshine we get. The more heating we have, the more unstable the atmosphere will be.
Beyond Saturday, condition looks dry with seasonable temperatures until late next week. Temperatures in the 60s to low 70s, slightly cooler in Northern NE with a good amount of sunshine.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Limited sunshine, chance of showers, especially across the interior of New England, highs in thd 50s south, upper 40s north.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, maybe a rain or snow shower north, lows in the upper 30s and low 40s south, low 30s north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, slight chance of a shower north, highs in the upper 60s south, around 60 north.
Tomorrow night: Partly to mostly cloudy, in the upper 40s to near 50 south, 30s north.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, chance of a showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm, highs in the low 60s both north and south.
Discussion:
After the cold front moved through yesterday, we are left with a cold pool of air over our heads. This will lead to some instability today as any sun we see during the first half of the day will heat up the surface and that warm air will quickly lift into that colder air. Remember, warm air rises. This will create more clouds and tap into the remaining moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere to create rain showers. I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few snow showers across the higher elevations of New England today either. This includes tonight, where I think surface temperatures may get cool enough for snow to reach down into the valleys of Northern New England.
The cooler air will dissipate tomorrow, though a few isolated showers may still be possible across Northern NE. It will be much warmer tomorrow as well thanks to a change in wind direction at the surface, from northwesterly to a west or southwest wind.
Saturday remains a bit of a tricky forecast. There will be a low pressure system passing to the south of New England. It looks like it gets close enough to trigger scattered showers across the region, particularly Saturday afternoon. For now, I've gone heavy on the cloudiness. If we get more sunshine than I expect currently, it will be warmer and I think our chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase with the more sunshine we get. The more heating we have, the more unstable the atmosphere will be.
Beyond Saturday, condition looks dry with seasonable temperatures until late next week. Temperatures in the 60s to low 70s, slightly cooler in Northern NE with a good amount of sunshine.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Ugly now, better for the weekend
A cold front will push through New England today bringing rain and then chilly air for tomorrow.
Today: Cloudy, showers likely with the chance of a few thunderstorms, highs near 60 south, low 50s north.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy a few showers still possible, lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Tomorrow: More clouds than sun, showers possible, cooler, highs in the low 50s south, upper 40s north.
Tomorrow night: Partial clearing, lows in the low 40s south, 30s north.
Friday: Partly sunny, maybe a few showers in Northern New England, highs in the low 60s south, 50s north.
Discussion:
A cold front with slowly sweep through New England today. This should provide just about everyone with some rain at some point today. There could also be a few embedded thunderstorms along the cold front today, none are expected to reach severe levels. The front will clear the region late tonight, but unfortunately that doesn't mean we are done with the unsettled weather. The low pressure system associated with the cold front will become stationary to the northeast of New England over the Canadian Maritimes. This will hold cooler air in the region and also will keep the atmosphere unsettled enough for more showers. It won't be a steady all day rain, but will be more scattered in nature.
Friday that stalled low will begin to move out into the North Atlantic and this will help improve our weather here in New England. Southern and most of Central New England will have a pleasant day on Friday with some sun and seasonable temperatures. Northern areas may still be under the influence of that departing low so a few isolated showers may develop.
This weekend looks generally nice. A low pressure system will be passing south of New England which is causing a bit of uncertainty in the outlook. As it stands now, we should stay mostly dry this weekend with at or above normal temperatures. As a matter of fact, if we stay dry this weekend, our next real threat of wet weather won't be until late next week.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Cloudy, showers likely with the chance of a few thunderstorms, highs near 60 south, low 50s north.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy a few showers still possible, lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Tomorrow: More clouds than sun, showers possible, cooler, highs in the low 50s south, upper 40s north.
Tomorrow night: Partial clearing, lows in the low 40s south, 30s north.
Friday: Partly sunny, maybe a few showers in Northern New England, highs in the low 60s south, 50s north.
Discussion:
A cold front with slowly sweep through New England today. This should provide just about everyone with some rain at some point today. There could also be a few embedded thunderstorms along the cold front today, none are expected to reach severe levels. The front will clear the region late tonight, but unfortunately that doesn't mean we are done with the unsettled weather. The low pressure system associated with the cold front will become stationary to the northeast of New England over the Canadian Maritimes. This will hold cooler air in the region and also will keep the atmosphere unsettled enough for more showers. It won't be a steady all day rain, but will be more scattered in nature.
Friday that stalled low will begin to move out into the North Atlantic and this will help improve our weather here in New England. Southern and most of Central New England will have a pleasant day on Friday with some sun and seasonable temperatures. Northern areas may still be under the influence of that departing low so a few isolated showers may develop.
This weekend looks generally nice. A low pressure system will be passing south of New England which is causing a bit of uncertainty in the outlook. As it stands now, we should stay mostly dry this weekend with at or above normal temperatures. As a matter of fact, if we stay dry this weekend, our next real threat of wet weather won't be until late next week.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Monday, May 2, 2011
Slow moving storm
Hope everyone enjoyed their weekend and then breaking news last night and this morning!
Today: Sun this morning then increasing clouds, highs in the low to mid 60s both north and south.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of a few showers, lows in the 40s.
Tomorrow: Cloudy, showers possible, especially north, highs in the 60s south, upper 50s north.
Tomorrow night: Continued cloudy with the chance of rain showers, lows in the 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.
Wednesday: Cloudy with rain likely, highs near 60 south, 50s north.
Discussion:
We'll squeeze one more nice day out today before conditions begin to deteriorate. A slow moving storm system is moving toward New England and it will affect our weather throughout the middle of the work week. As we progress through the day today, clouds will start to build in from the southwest. Eventually we won't see much sun by the time it sets this evening. After that, we really won't see the sun until possibly the weekend. It depends on how everything develops of course.
Over the next few days I'm fairly confident about what will happen. A battle zone between warm and cold air will set up across the interior of New England late tonight and will remain in place through the day on Wednesday. Tonight and tomorrow will be cloudy and damp, though most of the rain showers should be over Northern and Central New England. On Wednesday, the center of the low pressure will be ride northeastward along that battle zone and will help to push it through New England. This will also bring enhanced chances of rain to the entire region, making it the wettest day of the week.
Beyond Wednesday, the forecast is a bit fuzzy. The low pressure system looks like it is going to stall just off to our northeast late in the week. The problem is how far east the low makes it, does it retrograde and how much of the energy rotating around the low makes it back into New England. If it pushes further out to sea, our weather will be nicer sooner. If what I'm seeing is correct, our weather will be a bit unsettled until we reach the weekend. Right now I'm expecting a mainly cloudy with a few showers right through the day on Friday. More on this throughout the week.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Sun this morning then increasing clouds, highs in the low to mid 60s both north and south.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of a few showers, lows in the 40s.
Tomorrow: Cloudy, showers possible, especially north, highs in the 60s south, upper 50s north.
Tomorrow night: Continued cloudy with the chance of rain showers, lows in the 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.
Wednesday: Cloudy with rain likely, highs near 60 south, 50s north.
Discussion:
We'll squeeze one more nice day out today before conditions begin to deteriorate. A slow moving storm system is moving toward New England and it will affect our weather throughout the middle of the work week. As we progress through the day today, clouds will start to build in from the southwest. Eventually we won't see much sun by the time it sets this evening. After that, we really won't see the sun until possibly the weekend. It depends on how everything develops of course.
Over the next few days I'm fairly confident about what will happen. A battle zone between warm and cold air will set up across the interior of New England late tonight and will remain in place through the day on Wednesday. Tonight and tomorrow will be cloudy and damp, though most of the rain showers should be over Northern and Central New England. On Wednesday, the center of the low pressure will be ride northeastward along that battle zone and will help to push it through New England. This will also bring enhanced chances of rain to the entire region, making it the wettest day of the week.
Beyond Wednesday, the forecast is a bit fuzzy. The low pressure system looks like it is going to stall just off to our northeast late in the week. The problem is how far east the low makes it, does it retrograde and how much of the energy rotating around the low makes it back into New England. If it pushes further out to sea, our weather will be nicer sooner. If what I'm seeing is correct, our weather will be a bit unsettled until we reach the weekend. Right now I'm expecting a mainly cloudy with a few showers right through the day on Friday. More on this throughout the week.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Pleasant but a bit cool
We'll have a relatively nice weekend coming up, but temperatures will be a bit cooler than the last few days.
Today: Partly to mostly sunny, slight chance of a shower inland, highs around 70 south, mid 60s north.
Tonight: Mainly clear south, partly cloudy north with a few isolated showers, lows in the 40s south, mid to upper 30s north.
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, highs in the lower 60 both north and south.
Tomorrow night: Mainly clear, lows in the low 40s south, upper 20s and low 30s north.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, highs in the low 60s north and south, upper 50s along the coast.
Discussion:
High pressure is in control at the surface for this weekend. It hasn't quite taken control yet and because of this, there might be a few showers across the interior of New England. Behind the cold front that moved through last night, cooler air has moved in aloft. As the sun heats up the surface today, this will create lift in the atmosphere and produce some cloudiness. There is also enough instability left behind that may help to kick off a few isolated showers across the region. It looks like most of this activity will be across the interior of New England, mainly this afternoon.
As high pressure takes full control tomorrow, the risk of showers will diminish. We'll be left with plenty of sunshine, but slightly cooler temperatures. Saturday will be the better of the two days, mainly because I'm expecting a sea breeze to develop on Sunday. This will keep coastal areas a bit cooler.
Our next chance of unsettled weather will be on Monday with a cold front moving through. Mostly just expecting showers, but a few thunderstorms might be possible. Tuesday looks dry at this point and then Wednesday looks to be messy. One model indicates that temperatures aloft will be cold enough to support snow, that's right, snow. Do I think we will see snow, I'm not sure yet. It's a possibility that some higher elevations could see some snow, but not all the models have this storm hitting the region. Time will tell.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Partly to mostly sunny, slight chance of a shower inland, highs around 70 south, mid 60s north.
Tonight: Mainly clear south, partly cloudy north with a few isolated showers, lows in the 40s south, mid to upper 30s north.
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, highs in the lower 60 both north and south.
Tomorrow night: Mainly clear, lows in the low 40s south, upper 20s and low 30s north.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, highs in the low 60s north and south, upper 50s along the coast.
Discussion:
High pressure is in control at the surface for this weekend. It hasn't quite taken control yet and because of this, there might be a few showers across the interior of New England. Behind the cold front that moved through last night, cooler air has moved in aloft. As the sun heats up the surface today, this will create lift in the atmosphere and produce some cloudiness. There is also enough instability left behind that may help to kick off a few isolated showers across the region. It looks like most of this activity will be across the interior of New England, mainly this afternoon.
As high pressure takes full control tomorrow, the risk of showers will diminish. We'll be left with plenty of sunshine, but slightly cooler temperatures. Saturday will be the better of the two days, mainly because I'm expecting a sea breeze to develop on Sunday. This will keep coastal areas a bit cooler.
Our next chance of unsettled weather will be on Monday with a cold front moving through. Mostly just expecting showers, but a few thunderstorms might be possible. Tuesday looks dry at this point and then Wednesday looks to be messy. One model indicates that temperatures aloft will be cold enough to support snow, that's right, snow. Do I think we will see snow, I'm not sure yet. It's a possibility that some higher elevations could see some snow, but not all the models have this storm hitting the region. Time will tell.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Cold front passage
A cold front will move through New England today followed by what looks like a decent weekend.
Today: Mostly cloudy, chance of showers and thunderstorms, highs in the low 70s south, upper 60s north.
Tonight: Any showers and thunderstorms end, partial clearing, lows near 50 south, upper 30s north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, maybe an isolated shower or two inland, highs near 70 south, low to mid 60s north.
Tomorrow night: Clear to partly cloudy, lows in the mid and upper 40s south, mid and upper 30s north.
Saturday/Sunday: Plenty of sunshine, slight chance of a shower north, highs in the upper 50s and low 60s south, 50s to near 60 north.
Discussion:
A cold front will pass through New England today. This front is just about out of energy so I don't think we will have anything significant across much of New England as it moves through. There were some warnings in effect across the Hudson Valley this morning in NY, but those storms are weakening and will probably just end up being thundershowers for Western New England this morning. The front will start to get stretched out this afternoon and it will start to split. Some energy will go north in Canada, the rest will stay south and slide below New England. We should only have widely scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms through the evening.
Once the front clears we are in for a decent weekend. There will be some cold air aloft that may help to kick off a few light showers at times across the interior of New England. Other than that, we'll have a decent amount of sun and seasonable temperatures.
Please keep the people affected by the severe weather outbreak in your thoughts today, that was one of the worst tornado outbreaks since the Super Outbreak of 1974. So far I've seen reports of 160 tornadoes and over 180 people dead. Staggering numbers. Several of these storms passed over densely populated areas and many happened late in the evening when people were sleeping. Some entire small towns in Georgia were completely destroyed. Debris that was created and then picked up by the tornadoes were falling from the sky 50 miles from where the tornado was located. There was debris and hail falling at the same time. The debris was getting sucked up into the tornado, taken way way up into storm and then was blown out ahead of the storm by 50 miles!
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Mostly cloudy, chance of showers and thunderstorms, highs in the low 70s south, upper 60s north.
Tonight: Any showers and thunderstorms end, partial clearing, lows near 50 south, upper 30s north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, maybe an isolated shower or two inland, highs near 70 south, low to mid 60s north.
Tomorrow night: Clear to partly cloudy, lows in the mid and upper 40s south, mid and upper 30s north.
Saturday/Sunday: Plenty of sunshine, slight chance of a shower north, highs in the upper 50s and low 60s south, 50s to near 60 north.
Discussion:
A cold front will pass through New England today. This front is just about out of energy so I don't think we will have anything significant across much of New England as it moves through. There were some warnings in effect across the Hudson Valley this morning in NY, but those storms are weakening and will probably just end up being thundershowers for Western New England this morning. The front will start to get stretched out this afternoon and it will start to split. Some energy will go north in Canada, the rest will stay south and slide below New England. We should only have widely scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms through the evening.
Once the front clears we are in for a decent weekend. There will be some cold air aloft that may help to kick off a few light showers at times across the interior of New England. Other than that, we'll have a decent amount of sun and seasonable temperatures.
Please keep the people affected by the severe weather outbreak in your thoughts today, that was one of the worst tornado outbreaks since the Super Outbreak of 1974. So far I've seen reports of 160 tornadoes and over 180 people dead. Staggering numbers. Several of these storms passed over densely populated areas and many happened late in the evening when people were sleeping. Some entire small towns in Georgia were completely destroyed. Debris that was created and then picked up by the tornadoes were falling from the sky 50 miles from where the tornado was located. There was debris and hail falling at the same time. The debris was getting sucked up into the tornado, taken way way up into storm and then was blown out ahead of the storm by 50 miles!
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Warmer today, storms tomorrow?
Dealing with some fog and mist this morning, but this will burn off allowing some sun to develop.
Today: Morning areas of fog gives way to partial sunshine, maybe a few late day showers and storms in western New England, highs ranging from the upper 60s along the coast to low 70s inland.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms possible, especially before 3 AM, lows in the 50s.
Tomorrow: Some patchy morning fog then some breaks of sun. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, a few storms may be strong, especially in Western New England, highs in the low to mid 70s.
Tomorrow night: Showers and thunderstorms depart, clearing, lows near 40 north, upper 40s and low 50s south.
Friday: Partly sunny, chance of an isolated shower inland, highs in the mid to upper 60s south, around 60 north.
Discussion:
Rough day of forecasting yesterday. I've never had much luck with forecasting the passage of those warm front. Ask any meteorologist in New England and they'll likely tell you that they are the hardest to predict. Anyway, onto today. We are dealing with some fog this morning, but the combination of a southerly wind and strong sun above the low clouds will burn off the fog leading to some sun today. We will see some showers and thunderstorms flare up across Upstate NY and Central PA during the early afternoon hours and they will make their way toward New England. This looks like it will really only be a factor for Western New England late afternoon/early evening time frame. There is a slight chance that some of these storms may reach severe criteria, but they should be weakening as they reach the New England States.
I expect the rain from these lines of storms to survive to bring some showers overnight to many areas of New England, especially Central and Northern New England. This will moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere and will likely lead to another foggy morning tomorrow. This will burn off as well and then it will be get warm and a bit sticky. An approaching cold front will set off another round of showers and thunderstorms. Again, some of these storms could reach severe criteria, particularly in Western New England. This all should happen during the afternoon into early evening. The showers and storms should move off shore overnight followed by cooler and drier air behind the front.
Friday will turn out to be OK. We'll see a decent amount of sun, but also the chance of a few pop-up showers across the interior. Nothing significant, but a few raindrop nonetheless. Looking into the weekend, I'm happy to report that it appears that it will be mostly dry and seasonable. A few showers across the interior are possible thanks to cooler air aloft and strong heating at the surface causing lift.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Morning areas of fog gives way to partial sunshine, maybe a few late day showers and storms in western New England, highs ranging from the upper 60s along the coast to low 70s inland.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms possible, especially before 3 AM, lows in the 50s.
Tomorrow: Some patchy morning fog then some breaks of sun. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, a few storms may be strong, especially in Western New England, highs in the low to mid 70s.
Tomorrow night: Showers and thunderstorms depart, clearing, lows near 40 north, upper 40s and low 50s south.
Friday: Partly sunny, chance of an isolated shower inland, highs in the mid to upper 60s south, around 60 north.
Discussion:
Rough day of forecasting yesterday. I've never had much luck with forecasting the passage of those warm front. Ask any meteorologist in New England and they'll likely tell you that they are the hardest to predict. Anyway, onto today. We are dealing with some fog this morning, but the combination of a southerly wind and strong sun above the low clouds will burn off the fog leading to some sun today. We will see some showers and thunderstorms flare up across Upstate NY and Central PA during the early afternoon hours and they will make their way toward New England. This looks like it will really only be a factor for Western New England late afternoon/early evening time frame. There is a slight chance that some of these storms may reach severe criteria, but they should be weakening as they reach the New England States.
I expect the rain from these lines of storms to survive to bring some showers overnight to many areas of New England, especially Central and Northern New England. This will moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere and will likely lead to another foggy morning tomorrow. This will burn off as well and then it will be get warm and a bit sticky. An approaching cold front will set off another round of showers and thunderstorms. Again, some of these storms could reach severe criteria, particularly in Western New England. This all should happen during the afternoon into early evening. The showers and storms should move off shore overnight followed by cooler and drier air behind the front.
Friday will turn out to be OK. We'll see a decent amount of sun, but also the chance of a few pop-up showers across the interior. Nothing significant, but a few raindrop nonetheless. Looking into the weekend, I'm happy to report that it appears that it will be mostly dry and seasonable. A few showers across the interior are possible thanks to cooler air aloft and strong heating at the surface causing lift.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Another day of murkiness
Fog and drizzle has developed north of the warm front, doesn't look like we'll see that warmth starting today.
Today: Areas of fog and drizzle, along with the chance of showers, highs in the low to mid 50s both north and south.
Tonight: Cloudy with showers, lows in the mid and upper 40s both north and south.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with the chance of showers, highs in the low to mid 70s south, around 70 north.
Tomorrow night: More showers and maybe a thunderstorms around, lows in the 50s south, near 50 north.
Thursday: Cloudy with the chance of showers and thunderstorms, highs in the upper 60s both north and south.
Discussion:
I was worried about today. Yesterday when I was making the forecast I decided to go a bit more positive and pushed the warm front pretty far to the north. I bought into what everyone else was saying when deep down I knew that I shouldn't have. I'm kicking myself now.
As you saw when you woke up this morning, the fog and drizzle has set in and the push from the warm front is not going to be enough to move that heavy damp air out of the region during the day today. As a result, we'll be stuck with a cool, damp, and dreary day. Fortunately, this should, rather will, change tonight and early tomorrow. As the low pressure system gets a bit closer, there will be more of a wind push on the south side of the front. This will force the marine layer north and east and allow for warmer and "drier" air in. We will still have the chance of showers and few thunderstorms, but just not the fog and mist.
The cold front associated with this storm system will push through New England during the day on Thursday. Some of the latest model runs shows this front as being relatively weak with only a thin line of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. A bit too early to tell how strong this front will be.
As we head into the weekend, Friday looks like an OK day, maybe a few clouds and a stray shower around. Saturday and Sunday should be pleasant as well, with near normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Areas of fog and drizzle, along with the chance of showers, highs in the low to mid 50s both north and south.
Tonight: Cloudy with showers, lows in the mid and upper 40s both north and south.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with the chance of showers, highs in the low to mid 70s south, around 70 north.
Tomorrow night: More showers and maybe a thunderstorms around, lows in the 50s south, near 50 north.
Thursday: Cloudy with the chance of showers and thunderstorms, highs in the upper 60s both north and south.
Discussion:
I was worried about today. Yesterday when I was making the forecast I decided to go a bit more positive and pushed the warm front pretty far to the north. I bought into what everyone else was saying when deep down I knew that I shouldn't have. I'm kicking myself now.
As you saw when you woke up this morning, the fog and drizzle has set in and the push from the warm front is not going to be enough to move that heavy damp air out of the region during the day today. As a result, we'll be stuck with a cool, damp, and dreary day. Fortunately, this should, rather will, change tonight and early tomorrow. As the low pressure system gets a bit closer, there will be more of a wind push on the south side of the front. This will force the marine layer north and east and allow for warmer and "drier" air in. We will still have the chance of showers and few thunderstorms, but just not the fog and mist.
The cold front associated with this storm system will push through New England during the day on Thursday. Some of the latest model runs shows this front as being relatively weak with only a thin line of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. A bit too early to tell how strong this front will be.
As we head into the weekend, Friday looks like an OK day, maybe a few clouds and a stray shower around. Saturday and Sunday should be pleasant as well, with near normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Pesky warm front
Hope everyone enjoyed yesterday. I don't see a day anywhere near as nice as yesterday for at least a week.
Today: Cloudy, maybe a few showers or patchy drizzle, highs in the mid and upper 50s south, warmer north due to lack of a breeze off the ocean, highs near 60.
Tonight: Rain possible, especially north, lows near 50 south, around 40 north.
Tomorrow: Mix of clouds and sun, slight chance of showers, highs around 70 south*, in the 50s elsewhere. More on the * later.
Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy, showers possible, lows in the upper 40s and low 50s south, low 40s north.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, showers possible, highs in the upper 60s to near 70 south, 60s north.
Discussion:
As mentioned in my last couple of updates we are going to be dealing with a slow moving warm front the next few days. This is the reason for the cooler, dreary day we are currently having. Over the next couple of days, this front will work its way north. As it does so, it will be the focal point for showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Today the front will be south of the region, bringing easterly winds to much of New England. Northern sections won't suffer as much as there won't be as direct impact from the Atlantic. We shouldn't be too wet during the day today as it's going to take a little while for some moisture to work into the area. Rain will develop tonight however.
During the day on Tuesday the warm front should start move north. The big question is how far it is going to make it. Now to discuss the * above. It looks like most of Southern New England will warm up tomorrow, but not all. I think the warm front will make it to the MA/NH border and then dip down into MA toward Cape Ann. Areas north of the front will stay cool, where areas south will be much warmer.
Tuesday night the warm front will continue push northward and by Wednesday it should be across far northern New England. Temperatures should be mild, but we'll still have the chance for showers. So overall, this week will be warm but a bit unsettled. Eventually a cold front will move through the region with the chance of more rain and depending on the time of the day the front comes through, thunderstorms may also be possible. Right now it looks like the front might pass through on Thursday afternoon. Friday should be drier and a touch cooler. Looking into the upcoming weekend, conditions look pleasant.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Cloudy, maybe a few showers or patchy drizzle, highs in the mid and upper 50s south, warmer north due to lack of a breeze off the ocean, highs near 60.
Tonight: Rain possible, especially north, lows near 50 south, around 40 north.
Tomorrow: Mix of clouds and sun, slight chance of showers, highs around 70 south*, in the 50s elsewhere. More on the * later.
Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy, showers possible, lows in the upper 40s and low 50s south, low 40s north.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, showers possible, highs in the upper 60s to near 70 south, 60s north.
Discussion:
As mentioned in my last couple of updates we are going to be dealing with a slow moving warm front the next few days. This is the reason for the cooler, dreary day we are currently having. Over the next couple of days, this front will work its way north. As it does so, it will be the focal point for showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Today the front will be south of the region, bringing easterly winds to much of New England. Northern sections won't suffer as much as there won't be as direct impact from the Atlantic. We shouldn't be too wet during the day today as it's going to take a little while for some moisture to work into the area. Rain will develop tonight however.
During the day on Tuesday the warm front should start move north. The big question is how far it is going to make it. Now to discuss the * above. It looks like most of Southern New England will warm up tomorrow, but not all. I think the warm front will make it to the MA/NH border and then dip down into MA toward Cape Ann. Areas north of the front will stay cool, where areas south will be much warmer.
Tuesday night the warm front will continue push northward and by Wednesday it should be across far northern New England. Temperatures should be mild, but we'll still have the chance for showers. So overall, this week will be warm but a bit unsettled. Eventually a cold front will move through the region with the chance of more rain and depending on the time of the day the front comes through, thunderstorms may also be possible. Right now it looks like the front might pass through on Thursday afternoon. Friday should be drier and a touch cooler. Looking into the upcoming weekend, conditions look pleasant.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Warm week upcoming
Happy Easter Everyone!
Today: Partly sunny, more clouds in the afternoon, highs upper 60s to near 70 south, around 60 north.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy south with a few showers possible, partly cloudy north, lows in the upper 40s to near 50 south, low 30s north.
Tomorrow: Cloudy with showers and drizzle south, sun and clouds north and west. Highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s in Eastern MA and South central/eastern NH, upper 50s and lowers 60s elsewhere.
Tomorrow night: Cloudy with showers possible, especially north, lows in the upper 40s south, upper 30s north.
Tuesday: Lots of clouds, chance of showers, especially north, highs in the low to mid 60s south, around 60 north.
Discussion:
A bit of a tricky forecast for the next few days. It all stems from a warm front that will set up across New England starting tonight. Before that happens however, we are going to have pretty nice day today. We should have sunshine for a good part of the day until some clouds start to build in for southern areas in the afternoon. Temperatures will also be much warmer today than what we had yesterday. I'll be wearing shorts this afternoon!
So onto the tougher part of the forecast. A warm front will start developing tonight to the south of New England. As this organizes, rain showers will develop as will an easterly wind to the north of the front. This is going to cause a marine layer to develop across eastern and southern sections. Unfortunately this is going to drop temperatures back down to cooler readings for these areas. Basically, east of the Worcester hills and Monadnocks will be stuck with cooler temperatures and possibly some drizzle and rain showers. Outside of the area just mentioned, temperatures will be about 10 or so degrees warmer, still cloudy however with the chance of showers.
It looks like the warm front will lift north on Monday night or Tuesday morning. This will provide a warm up for southern and eastern locations for Tuesday. We still probably won't see too much sunshine and the chance of showers will still exist, but it will be warmer. Once we get to Tuesday, it looks like the majority of the precipitation will be focused across Northern New England, along that warm front. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few thunderstorms develop at times along this front.
Beyond Tuesday, we will still have to deal with occasional rain shower this week, but it looks like temperatures will remain mild into the day on Friday. A cold front should pass through the region late in the week, probably on Friday. Behind that front, temperatures will cool down a bit and right now next weekend doesn't show much promise....
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Partly sunny, more clouds in the afternoon, highs upper 60s to near 70 south, around 60 north.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy south with a few showers possible, partly cloudy north, lows in the upper 40s to near 50 south, low 30s north.
Tomorrow: Cloudy with showers and drizzle south, sun and clouds north and west. Highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s in Eastern MA and South central/eastern NH, upper 50s and lowers 60s elsewhere.
Tomorrow night: Cloudy with showers possible, especially north, lows in the upper 40s south, upper 30s north.
Tuesday: Lots of clouds, chance of showers, especially north, highs in the low to mid 60s south, around 60 north.
Discussion:
A bit of a tricky forecast for the next few days. It all stems from a warm front that will set up across New England starting tonight. Before that happens however, we are going to have pretty nice day today. We should have sunshine for a good part of the day until some clouds start to build in for southern areas in the afternoon. Temperatures will also be much warmer today than what we had yesterday. I'll be wearing shorts this afternoon!
So onto the tougher part of the forecast. A warm front will start developing tonight to the south of New England. As this organizes, rain showers will develop as will an easterly wind to the north of the front. This is going to cause a marine layer to develop across eastern and southern sections. Unfortunately this is going to drop temperatures back down to cooler readings for these areas. Basically, east of the Worcester hills and Monadnocks will be stuck with cooler temperatures and possibly some drizzle and rain showers. Outside of the area just mentioned, temperatures will be about 10 or so degrees warmer, still cloudy however with the chance of showers.
It looks like the warm front will lift north on Monday night or Tuesday morning. This will provide a warm up for southern and eastern locations for Tuesday. We still probably won't see too much sunshine and the chance of showers will still exist, but it will be warmer. Once we get to Tuesday, it looks like the majority of the precipitation will be focused across Northern New England, along that warm front. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few thunderstorms develop at times along this front.
Beyond Tuesday, we will still have to deal with occasional rain shower this week, but it looks like temperatures will remain mild into the day on Friday. A cold front should pass through the region late in the week, probably on Friday. Behind that front, temperatures will cool down a bit and right now next weekend doesn't show much promise....
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Half of a weekend
Pleasant but cool today, rain Saturday, "should" be OK on Sunday.
Today: Plenty of sunshine, cool, highs in low to mid 50s north and south.
Tonight: Clouds increase, lows in the mid and upper 30s south, mid 20 north.
Tomorrow: Rain showers develop, slight chance of a rain/snow mix in Northern New England before changing to rain, highs near 50 south, upper 40s north.
Tomorrow night: Rain showers taper off, partial clearing, lows in the upper 40s south, 30s north.
Sunday: More clouds than sun, maybe a few showers along the South Coast, highs in the 60s south, upper 50s north.
Discussion:
We'll have a pleasant but cool day today. Not as windy as yesterday either so it will probably feel a bit warmer than it did yesterday. A low pressure will approach the region tonight, this will cause an increase in clouds overnight. It looks like the rain will hold off until tomorrow morning after the sun comes up. This will limit the threat of wintry precipitation. It appears that if there is any rain/snow mix, it will be across Northern New England. Even then I think temperatures will be warm enough to make this a strictly rain event. At this time in year, it is very hard to have freezing rain because the temperature of the ground is pretty warm.
Rain will continue off and on through the day on Saturday, tapering off late in the afternoon or early evening. Our skies will remain mostly cloudy through the night with a bit of clearing expected. Sunday looks like it will turn out OK for the most part. There will be some precipitation around, but most of it will be south of New England so if anyone is affected, it will be along the South Coast. There should be a few breaks of sunshine, but it will stay generally cloudy on Sunday. Temperatures should be warmer as well, despite the lack of sun.
The beginning of next week is a toss up at this point. It's either going to be cool and damp, dry and mild or both in different locations. There will be another warm front draped across New England and it's placement will heavily impact what we will see. If the front moves north, it should be dry and mild. If it drops south, it will be cool and damp. It's all about wind direction. If the front is south, we'll have an east wind and be impacted by a marine layer. If the front is north, a west or southwest wind will be in place, which is drier and warmer. I expect the front to waver back and forth a bit early next week, so conditions could change on a day by day basis or change from one extreme to another during one of the days. That's is Spring in New England....
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Plenty of sunshine, cool, highs in low to mid 50s north and south.
Tonight: Clouds increase, lows in the mid and upper 30s south, mid 20 north.
Tomorrow: Rain showers develop, slight chance of a rain/snow mix in Northern New England before changing to rain, highs near 50 south, upper 40s north.
Tomorrow night: Rain showers taper off, partial clearing, lows in the upper 40s south, 30s north.
Sunday: More clouds than sun, maybe a few showers along the South Coast, highs in the 60s south, upper 50s north.
Discussion:
We'll have a pleasant but cool day today. Not as windy as yesterday either so it will probably feel a bit warmer than it did yesterday. A low pressure will approach the region tonight, this will cause an increase in clouds overnight. It looks like the rain will hold off until tomorrow morning after the sun comes up. This will limit the threat of wintry precipitation. It appears that if there is any rain/snow mix, it will be across Northern New England. Even then I think temperatures will be warm enough to make this a strictly rain event. At this time in year, it is very hard to have freezing rain because the temperature of the ground is pretty warm.
Rain will continue off and on through the day on Saturday, tapering off late in the afternoon or early evening. Our skies will remain mostly cloudy through the night with a bit of clearing expected. Sunday looks like it will turn out OK for the most part. There will be some precipitation around, but most of it will be south of New England so if anyone is affected, it will be along the South Coast. There should be a few breaks of sunshine, but it will stay generally cloudy on Sunday. Temperatures should be warmer as well, despite the lack of sun.
The beginning of next week is a toss up at this point. It's either going to be cool and damp, dry and mild or both in different locations. There will be another warm front draped across New England and it's placement will heavily impact what we will see. If the front moves north, it should be dry and mild. If it drops south, it will be cool and damp. It's all about wind direction. If the front is south, we'll have an east wind and be impacted by a marine layer. If the front is north, a west or southwest wind will be in place, which is drier and warmer. I expect the front to waver back and forth a bit early next week, so conditions could change on a day by day basis or change from one extreme to another during one of the days. That's is Spring in New England....
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Sunny finish to the week
Pleasant to finish this work week but then we'll deal with some rain over the upcoming weekend.
Today: Sunny south, clouds and sun north with the chance of rain and snow showers north, breezy, highs in the 50s south, 40s north.
Tonight: Any clouds depart, lows in the low to mid 30s south, 20s north.
Tomorrow: Lots of sun, highs in the low 50s north and south.
Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds, lows in the upper 30s to near 40 south, 20s north.
Saturday: Rain develops from southwest to northeast, highs in the low 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.
Discussion:
A small area of high pressure is generally in control of the weather here in New England today and tomorrow. The only exception is a little leftover instability across Northern and Central New England. This will kick off a few rain and snow showers, especially during the first half of the day. Temperatures will be on the cool side for the next few days thanks to some colder air aloft. So despite a good amount of sunshine, our potential highs won't be all that warm because of that cool air overhead.
As we head into Friday evening a storm system will be approaching New England. This will result in increasing clouds on Friday night and then rain during the day on Saturday. This storm system isn't as strong as the last few that have moved through. We'll see some rain, but it will likely be less than half an inch and will be spread out over a 12 hour period. The rain should taper off on Saturday night and then we'll have a 50/50 shot at a decent day on Sunday. I don't think there will be much sun on Sunday, but it should be warmer. The question is whether or not we'll have any rain or not. There looks like there will be a few showers near New England on Sunday, but where they set up remains to be seen.
Until then, do what you can to enjoy the next two days and then hope that we can salvage at least half of the weekend.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Sunny south, clouds and sun north with the chance of rain and snow showers north, breezy, highs in the 50s south, 40s north.
Tonight: Any clouds depart, lows in the low to mid 30s south, 20s north.
Tomorrow: Lots of sun, highs in the low 50s north and south.
Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds, lows in the upper 30s to near 40 south, 20s north.
Saturday: Rain develops from southwest to northeast, highs in the low 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.
Discussion:
A small area of high pressure is generally in control of the weather here in New England today and tomorrow. The only exception is a little leftover instability across Northern and Central New England. This will kick off a few rain and snow showers, especially during the first half of the day. Temperatures will be on the cool side for the next few days thanks to some colder air aloft. So despite a good amount of sunshine, our potential highs won't be all that warm because of that cool air overhead.
As we head into Friday evening a storm system will be approaching New England. This will result in increasing clouds on Friday night and then rain during the day on Saturday. This storm system isn't as strong as the last few that have moved through. We'll see some rain, but it will likely be less than half an inch and will be spread out over a 12 hour period. The rain should taper off on Saturday night and then we'll have a 50/50 shot at a decent day on Sunday. I don't think there will be much sun on Sunday, but it should be warmer. The question is whether or not we'll have any rain or not. There looks like there will be a few showers near New England on Sunday, but where they set up remains to be seen.
Until then, do what you can to enjoy the next two days and then hope that we can salvage at least half of the weekend.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Wet and more wet
Dealing with more rain today, that will be a common theme over the next week or so.
Today: Occasional rain, thunderstorms also possible, highs in the upper 40s and into the 50s south, 40s north.
Tonight: Rain comes to an end, possibly mixing with snow north, some clearing possible, lows around 40 south, around 30 north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny south, mostly cloudy with chance of rain and snow showers north, highs in the 50s south, upper 30s to near 40 north.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy, lows in the 30s south, 20s north.
Friday: Sunny, highs in the 50s both north and south.
Discussion:
The short range forecast doesn't look to terrible, but when I look at the outlook for the weekend next week, it's bleak. We'll have a few more showers and maybe a few thunderstorms today. A few storms already rolled through parts of Northern New England overnight. This storm will continue to affect parts of northern New England into the day tomorrow, but conditions in southern sections will start to improve tonight.
Aside from some spotty rain and snow shower activity tomorrow in Northern New England, the next few days will be pleasant but a bit cool. Our next storm system is set to arrive on Saturday with another round of rain that will pretty much ruin the first half of the weekend. This will quickly depart on Saturday night, only to be replaced by another disturbance that will bring rain chances to Sunday as well. We'll almost have the same exact set up coming up next week as we had at the beginning of this week.
Another cold/warm battle zone will set up across the region and will be the focal point for more unsettled weather to start off next week.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Today: Occasional rain, thunderstorms also possible, highs in the upper 40s and into the 50s south, 40s north.
Tonight: Rain comes to an end, possibly mixing with snow north, some clearing possible, lows around 40 south, around 30 north.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny south, mostly cloudy with chance of rain and snow showers north, highs in the 50s south, upper 30s to near 40 north.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy, lows in the 30s south, 20s north.
Friday: Sunny, highs in the 50s both north and south.
Discussion:
The short range forecast doesn't look to terrible, but when I look at the outlook for the weekend next week, it's bleak. We'll have a few more showers and maybe a few thunderstorms today. A few storms already rolled through parts of Northern New England overnight. This storm will continue to affect parts of northern New England into the day tomorrow, but conditions in southern sections will start to improve tonight.
Aside from some spotty rain and snow shower activity tomorrow in Northern New England, the next few days will be pleasant but a bit cool. Our next storm system is set to arrive on Saturday with another round of rain that will pretty much ruin the first half of the weekend. This will quickly depart on Saturday night, only to be replaced by another disturbance that will bring rain chances to Sunday as well. We'll almost have the same exact set up coming up next week as we had at the beginning of this week.
Another cold/warm battle zone will set up across the region and will be the focal point for more unsettled weather to start off next week.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
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