Model convergence

If you live outside of MA-128, be ready for a plow able snowstorm that will begin overnight Wednesday night.  All the forecast models are beginning to hone on a solution, making this, hopefully, one of the easier storms to forecast for this winter season.

The low pressure system that will bring the snow is currently moving through the Ohio Valley and will begin to have a significant impact on the Mid-Atlantic tonight.  Heavy amounts of snow are expected along the Appalachian Mountains from VA north into NY and then eventually into Southern New England.

Temperatures at the surface is going to relatively warm, so expect to see a wet, heavy snow from this storm.  Though the further inland you go, the drier the snow will be.  It looks like we will see somewhere between 1 and 2" of liquid precipitation from this system.  Snow to liquid ratio should be somewhere between 6 to 1 and 10 to 1.  The highest precipitation total appear that they will be where it is mostly rain or heavy wet snow.  So if you do some quick math, highest snow totals will likely be between 10" and 14".  There is some fudging in there for wiggle room.

Here is another beautiful map that I've created of where I think the snow will occur and who will end up with what:

Credit for the base image to Plymouth State Weather

There is going to be pretty sharp gradient to the snow in Eastern MA and Southern NH.  The rain/snow line will set up near Rt 128 in Massachusetts and waver back and forth through the day on Thursday.  That being said, if the storm track shifts further to the north, the snow totals will be much lower and the higher totals will occur mainly in Southern NH.

So, if you leave in or near that dark blue color, make sure your snow blower is ready and you have done your stretches, you could be moving some cement like snow on Thursday.

Thanks for reading, more tomorrow.

-Jon K.

Storm Threat

Well, we could go more than a week or so without the threat of what could be a significant storm here in New England.  As with EVERY other storm so far this winter, we are dealing with a lot of model disparity.  The two medium range forecast models have been showing different, but consistent outputs for days, the shorter range models are just starting to gather information as the storm develops in the Northern Plains, so they can't be taken too seriously just yet.

Regardless of if New England sees this storm, this one is going to cause some problems from the Northern Plains, through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.  There are already too many Winter Storm Warnings to count across the Northern Plains.  Heavy snow and wind will cause numerous travel headaches through the middle to end of the this week from Dakotas to the Eastern Seaboard.

The forecast models are differing in one area, the track of the storm.  The intensity is about on par for each, but one model brings the storm up the East Coast after it exits the land near the Delmarva Peninsula while the other pushes it a bit further out to sea.  I expect that we will likely end up meeting somewhere in the middle.

So what does this mean for New England.  Well, rain and snow.  Most places inside of I-95 will predominately rain.  From I-95 north and west in Southern NH and Central MA, snow to a rain/snow mix, possibly to all rain.  North of Manchester, NH, expect to see all snow, but not much in the way of accumulations.  This is just a cursory look at this event right now.  We "hope" to have better information tomorrow as the models begin to hone in on a solution.  All of this fun would begin during the overnight hours of Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Currently I don't expect a major impact on New England from this event as places that will heavy a good amount of precipitation will mainly see it fall in the form of rain.  Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island will be the target for this.

The one that does have me concerned is how long the models try to keep this storm nearby.  It looks like it has the tendency to spin just off the coast of Cape Cod for a period of time.  If we end up with a more northerly/colder solution, this could result in a heavy amounts of snow across the interior of New England.  For now, let's hope that doesn't happen.

I'm ready for Spring.

Thanks for reading, more tomorrow!

-Jon K.