Ice to rain

First off, sorry about not posting yesterday.  I was quite lazy.

If you have ventured outside already this morning, you know it is slippery out there.  We are dealing with a wintry mix across much of New England.  Southern New England should be transitioning soon, by say 11AM or Noon.  Temperatures will slowly climb up to above freezing this morning, then should shoot up to the low 40s in Southern New England.

A tricker situation in Central New England.  Some spots will change over to rain, others will stay a mix of sleet and freezing rain.  This zone will be between Laconia and Concord.  North of Laconia/Tilton area, temperatures at the surface will stay cold so wintry mix or snow is expected to continue throughout the day.  Look for 3-6 inches in Northern New England.

The precipitation will start to taper off late this afternoon, starting in the south and then shutting off gradually toward the northeast.  Once the storm pulls away, we'll enjoy a few days of calm weather.  Temperatures will be relatively mild tomorrow and Wednesday, then cooling off for Thursday and Friday.  Our next round of unsettled weather looks to arrive this weekend.

Also going on today, severe weather along the Appalachains and then later today in the Carolinas and Southeastern States.  Strong winds and hail are the primary threats but isolated tornadoes are a significant threat as well.  We are getting closer to severe weather season, so days like today will becoming more common over the next couple of months.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

A bit more snow coming...

We are in the middle of a beautiful day here in New England at the moment.  Plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures.  Unfortunately we are in for another round of snow tonight as a fast moving, weak area of low pressure system will pass through.  There isn't too much moisture associated with this system, but the low will get stronger as it moves overhead.  We will see some accumulations out of this system, but nothing we can't handle!

Look for the snow to begin around midnight tonight, the snow may fall moderately at times, especially in Central New Hampshire.  I believe this is the area that will see the highest accumulations, maybe a few spots seeing as much as 5 inches.  South of Concord, NH down into Northern MA, I expect 1 to 3".  North of Franconia Notch, also, 1 to 3 inches.  Between Concord and the Notch, as mentioned earlier, is where most of the snow should fall.

Since this system is moving so quickly, all the snow should be clear of the region by mid-morning.  I expect to see the sun break out pretty quickly after the snow ends and temperatures should warm up above freezing for most locations.  This means most of the snow, anyone who gets 2" or less will likely have all the new snow melted by sun down on Sunday.  Our next storm system will be closing in fast, set to arrive on Monday.

Southwesterly winds will kick in overnight on Sunday night into Monday morning.  I don't expect temperatures will fall to far on Sunday night, maybe even climbing a couple degrees overnight.  Depending on if we see any sun on Monday morning, chances aren't looking too good at the moment, temperatures could get quite mild.  Right now I'm expecting 40s for Southern and Central New England, upper 30s in Northern New England.  This should be mainly a rain event on Monday with the precipitation starting late morning.  Not nearly as much precipitation with this storm as the one we had on Friday, but almost as much melting thanks to warmer temperatures.

I'll have more on Monday's storm tomorrow.  Beyond Monday we should have quiet weather though most of the rest of the week, maybe a weak disturbance mid week.  Daytime highs next week should be above freezing each day for most locations.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Tapering off...

The main batch of precipitation with this storm is gradually pulling away.  The majority of New England is dry at the moment, but there is another round of snow coming.  This will create a few problems for the late evening commute as temperatures start to drop and the snow falls on the slickening roadways.  I don't expect much accumulation, but enough to cause hazardous roadways, especially where they haven't been treated.

Once the snow ends this evening, we will have about a 24 hour break from precipitation on Saturday.  Temperatures tomorrow will be chilly, reaching the low 30s, at best.  Most places will be stuck in the 20s.  We will have a decent amount of sun, so dark surfaces should experience some melting tomorrow.  Snow returns to the picture overnight on Saturday night into Sunday morning.  A fast moving low pressure system will race through early Sunday morning.  Light snow is expected along with some minor accumulations, probably 1-2 inches.  It looks like Central New England will be the bullseye for this event.  Southern New England, particularly Northern Mass and Southern NH will see a dusting to 1 inch of snow.

The next storm coming down the pipeline will be right on the heels of Sunday's system.  Look for southwest winds to kick in on Sunday night, possibly even raising temperatures overnight Sunday into Monday morning.  A large area of low pressure will pass far to our west sending a warm front into Southern Canada.  This will allow warm air to rush in ahead of the storm.  I expect this to be mainly a rain event for nearly all of New England on Monday.  Look for the rain to begin midday on Monday and continue into Tuesday morning, possibly ending as snow as the system pulls away and cold air surges back in.  After this system, temperatures will remain chilly with another round of light snow possible on Thursday.

Thanks for reading today!

-Jon K.

Rain/Snow Line

The rain snow line has been making it's way north all morning long.  It is currently raining in Manchester, NH and it probably will be wavering back and forth for a few hours over Manchester.  I don't think it will make it much further north than it is right now.

As the day progresses, colder air will start to push its way back in.  This will likely start mid afternoon.  Southern New Hampshire and Northern MA will probably change back over to snow for a couple of hours before the precipitation tapers off this evening.  I don't expect much in the way of additional accumulation where the precipitation has changed over to rain, especially on roadways.  The roads will be wet and it will be hard for the snow to accumulate.  However, the roads will get slushy and that slush will eventually freeze overnight tonight.  Be careful out there!

Here is link to all the snow totals so far today:  Snow totals

More later...

-Jon K.

Messy morning

If you live north of Boston and Worcester, it's just plain messy outside.  I have to admit that I expected the rain snow line to be a bit further north by this time.  I still expect this line to shift into Southern New Hampshire, just barely, but I expect it to happen.  It may not happen until the middle of the day now however.

This could impact how much snow accumulates in Northern MA and Southern NH by an inch or two.  When I left Hudson, NH this morning, there was an inch of heavy wet snow on the ground already.  At the rate that the snow is falling, it won't take long to tack on a couple more inches.  Over the next couple of hours, as I write this it is 8:20 AM, the snow will start to gradually mix in with rain or sleet.  This transition will happen from south to north, making it as far as Nashua, NH by 1 PM or so.  I think areas north of Nashua now will stay mainly snow and probably will see a total of 3 to 6" as opposed to the 1 to 3" I forecasted for yesterday.

No change to the forecast north and west of Manchester.  Still expecting all snow here and lots of it.  6-12" from Manchester northward to the White and Green Mountains.  Far Northern NH and into Northern Maine the snow totals will drop off quickly as the extent of the preciptation shield won't quite reach the US/Canada Border, not with any significant intensity at least.

That's all for now, stay safe.  I'll have another update later today with a look at this weekend at the start of next week.

-Jon K.

Complicated storm

We have one more pleasant day today, even if it did start off rather cold.  We will see abundant sunshine through at least the first half of the day before some clouds develop.  Temperatures should make it to 40 degrees in Southern New England and 30s for Central and Northern NE.  The clouds that will start to move in will be in response to the approaching storm system set to arrive on Friday morning.

After reviewing some computer guidance this morning, the system appears to be moving a bit slower than previously forecast.  Instead of the precipitation getting started around 3 AM, it will probably start around sunrise now, closer to 7 AM.  Precipitation type is proving difficult to forecast, as surface temperatures in many locations will get close to or below freezing for a time on Friday morning.  I will provide 2 maps today, one indicating precipitation type and the other indicating snow totals, much easier to show you rather than describe it.

Green is all rain, the pinkish color is where there will be a period of a mix and then the light blue is all snow.  Below is snow total map.

As you can see VT and most of NH are going do well in terms of snow with this storm.  I left the accumulation range pretty wide as there is going to be banding in spots which will give some areas high amounts.  It would be far too difficult to pin those locations down.  The purple area will see a few hours of sleet and freezing rain before changing over to mainly rain.  Fortunately this won't produce much accumulation, but will make the road messy.  The green area should be mostly rain, with some northern areas in this zone seeing some mixing, but hardly any accumulation.

There is going to be quite a bit of liquid associated with this storm and there is going to be flooding problems.  The flooding problems will obviously be in the locations that have mostly rain.  Eastern MA and RI may have to deal with the worst of any flooding that occurs.  This will be caused by ice daming of small tributaries and street drains that are still clogged with ice.  Just be mindful of this tomorrow and avoid driving across water covered roadways.

Beyond Friday, we'll see another light snow on Sunday morning, followed by a gradual warm up leading to what looks like storm on Tuesday that provides mainly rain.  More to come on this, but I think you have plenty to chew on for now.  :-)

Thanks for reading and post any questions in the comments area below!

-Jon K.

Still quiet, storm on it's way

High pressure remains in control for the time being.  This will supply New England with lots of sunshine and above normal temperatures through the day tomorrow.  Sadly, the pleasant weather won't continue into the upcoming weekend as a storm developing in the Central US will be unsettled conditions on Friday.

I won't talk too much about today and tomorrow.  Sunshine and relatively mild.  I'm going to focus on the mess that is coming on Friday.  The forecast models are finally coming to an agreement and fortunately it will be to the benefit of much of New England.  It is that warmer solution I have been mentioning over the past couple of days.  The low pressure system will pass just to the west of the region, pushing warmer air in at the lower levels of the atmosphere.

Timing this system will still pose some difficulty.  Right now it looks like some of the precipitation will arrive before the sun comes up on Friday morning.  This will result in a period of wintry precipitation.  Probably starting with some snow, then changing over to sleet and freezing rain.  Southern New England will only see a couple of hours of this before changing over to all rain after the sun comes up.  Temperatures in SNE should gradually climb to the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Southern VT and NH will likely see an extra hour or so of wintry mix before changing over, this will likely happen by 9 AM or so.  Further north in Central VT and NH, the wintry mix will likely last into the middle of the day before warming up enough for rain to mix in.  2-4 inches of snow and sleet are likely before the transition.  North and west of Laconia, I expect all snow.  Right now my feeling is 6-10 inches.  I'll put together a forecast snow total map tomorrow.

Flooding could still be a concern, though this may be limited now since temperatures aren't going to be overly warm on Friday and we've had some solid melting over the last week.  However, most of the forecast models are showing an inch of liquid across Central MA and Southern NH over a 6 hour period.  As long as the rivers are clear of ice, which they should be and street drains are clear of ice, flooding should be minor.  There will be some ponding on roadways and some standing water is low lying spots, that should be the extent of it.

We will likely see a shot of light snow across nearly all of New England on Sunday as a weak low pressure system races through.  I'm not expecting much more than 3 inches at this time.  The pattern will remain active into next week.  Look for another storm on Tuesday, appears to be all rain right now.  Then another weak system Thursday/Friday.

Stay tuned!

-Jon K.

High pressure in control

As the title states, high pressure is in command and this will keep our weather quiet through the day on Thursday.  Unfortunately, it will be chilly today and breezy at times.  Wind chill values will be quite cold today.  Bright sunshine is expected however, so if you are in direct sunlight, sheltered from the wind, the sun will feel warm.  Look for high temperatures only in the 20s today.

Tomorrow and Thursday, tempeatures will warm a few degrees each day, we'll hit the mid to upper 30s tomorrow(more melting, yay!) and then into the 40s in Southern New England on Thursday, probably still in the 30s for Central and Northern New England.  Skies should remain mainly sunny right through sundown on Thursday evening.  Our attention then turns to a storm system approaching from the Appalachains.

The forecast models, after several runs showing a similar solution are starting to deviate from each other now.  This of course makes it very difficult to forecast what is going to happen.  However, the one model that is showing it colder, hasn't been doing a very good job this winter.  The model that is showing a warmer solution has been pretty solid.  I'm going hedge toward that warmer solution for now. I still expect much of New England to get a period of wintry precipitation.  The further south you are, the shorter this period will be.  Places in Northern New England may get a significant ice event from this system.

On the other side of the spectrum, if the colder situation develops, we'll see mainly snow, but the majority of the precipitation will stay south of New England.  It would be a plowable snow in Northern MA into VT and NH, but not a crippling event.

Now if the warmer solution develops, as I have stated for the last few days, flooding will be concern, particularly in Southeastern MA and RI.  Time will tell and I'm monitoring closely.

We probably will see a light snow on Sunday as a weak disturbance pass through.  Temperatures after this system passes through on Friday will drop off to chilly again and probably will remain chilly until the beginning of next week.

Stay tuned and tell your friends about this blog!  Thanks for reading!

-Jon K

Almost done...

Quick shot of snow this morning, should be ending around the middle of the day.  This will give snow removal crews plenty of time to have the roads clear by the evening commute.  So far, snow amounts look like they are going to fall nicely into the range that I forecasted yesterday.  Once the snow ends today, temperatures will spike up a bit, upper 20s to near 30 in Southern New England, reaching the 20s in Central and Northern New England.

As this storm system slides off shore today, an area of high pressure will be building southward from Canada.  In order for this high to build in, it will need to force its way and this will result in a windy day tomorrow.  Temperatures will be cool, but made to feel a lot colder by the wind.  Wind chills will be near 0 most of the day tomorrow, actual temperatures should range from the upper 20s to low 30s across New England.

High pressure remains in control through the day on Thursday, leading to a gradual warming trend on Wednesday and Thursday.  We should see the 40s for most locations by Thursday afternoon.  After this, our weather turns stormy again.  A large area of low pressure will pass to the west of New England on Friday.  This puts the area on the warm side of the storm, causing a mainly rain event.  The big question is, what time will it start precipitating.  If the storm arrives a little earlier than I'm seeing now, there could be an extended period of wintry mix.  If it starts later, then it will be all rain.  As it stands now, there probably will be a brief period of sleet or freezing rain in Southern Vermont and New Hampshire, a couple hours of a wintry mix in Central New England and then possible all freezing rain and sleet in Northern New England.

The other concern, aside from icing will be the potential for flooding.  Right now, cloudiness and precipitation should keep it from getting too warm on Friday.  Highs should only be in the 40s in Southern New England, colder as you go further north.  If it turns out to be much warmer than the 40s, the chance of flooding goes up greatly.  However, there also is the chance that the cold air doesn't get pushed out at the surface and then we are in for some serious icing.  That is always the worry with these February storms that pass to our west.  Will the warm southwest winds be strong enough to push the heavier cold air out?  I'll be watching this closely.

This all goes down on Friday during the day.  The upcoming weekend looks clear but cool.  Another warm up coming next week with the next storm looking like a rain-maker.

Stay tuned and thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Quick shot of snow...

As I said the other day, winter isn't over yet.  It's still February and mother nature is going to prove that tomorrow.  That is, if you could tell by how cold it was this morning.

I apologize for not updating yesterday, had some issues with the furnace.  A new one is coming....fun.

Anyway, we'll have a pleasant, but chilly  and breezy day today.  Temperatures should hit 30 in most locations, but it definitely won't feel that warm.  Late afternoon today, we may start to see a few high clouds move in from the west ahead of an impending low pressure system scheduled to arrive early on Monday morning.

This storm system will pass just south of New England on Monday, leaving the majority of the region on the cold side of the storm.  This means snow for nearly all of Southern and Central New England.  The south coast of New England may see a time of wintry mix before changing over to mainly rain.  Further north, I don't think there will be much snow as the precipitation will be densely packed closer to the center of the low.

The snow should move in around 3 AM or so on Monday morning and continue through roughly the noon hour.  Fortunately this system will be moving so quickly, it won't have much time to put down a heavy coating of fresh snow.  The location that looks like they'll see the most snow is Southern MA and Northern CT.  Amounts in this area should be between 2-5".  North of I-90 into Southern NH, I'm expecting 1-3".  So this should be a major problem, but I expect the roads to be a little slippery tomorrow for the morning commute.

Beyond Monday, temperatures will stay chilly into Thursday.  Our next chance at unsettled weather will come on Friday and by then, temperatures will have risen dramatically.  This warm up is coming with rain however, and I'm getting more and more concerned about flooding late this coming week.  The track of this system could change, but the models have been quite consistent with it for at least 3 days now.

I'll provide an update either later today or tomorrow as time allows.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Noon temperatures

Here is a round of up of the wide range of temperatures across New England at noon today.  You can see what areas have had more sun, those are the warm spot, less sun, it's still in the 40s.  The first # you see after the sky cover is the temperature reading at noon.

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1200 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011

MAZALL-181800-
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX       TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BOSTON         CLOUDY    54  41  61 SW14G21   29.64F
BEVERLY        PTSUNNY   49  40  71 SW8       29.63F
LAWRENCE       PTSUNNY   53  40  61 SW7       29.63F
BEDFORD        PTSUNNY   52  40  63 SW7       29.63F
BLUE HILL        N/A     52  41  66 SW10G21   29.64F
NORWOOD          N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG      29.65F
MARSHFIELD     MOSUNNY   57  45  62 SW9G18    29.66F
PLYMOUTH       MOSUNNY   54  42  64 W14G25    29.67F
TAUNTON        MOSUNNY   54  43  66 SW8       29.66F
NEW BEDFORD    PTSUNNY   56  44  64 SW10G22   29.69F
$$

MAZALL-181800-
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
FALMOUTH       CLOUDY    46  41  81 SW15G30   29.71F
HYANNIS        PTSUNNY   50  43  77 SW17      29.69F
CHATHAM        CLOUDY    44  40  85 SW8G18    29.70F
PROVINCETOWN   MOSUNNY   48  41  76 SW22G29   29.66F
NANTUCKET      CLOUDY    46  42  86 W20G29    29.74F
MARTHAS VNYRD  PTSUNNY   52  44  74 SW18G24   29.72F
$$

MAZALL-181800-
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
WORCESTER      CLOUDY    50  40  68 SW16      29.65F
FITCHBURG      CLOUDY    55  41  59 SW5       29.64F
ORANGE         PTSUNNY   48  39  71 S8        29.65F
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    47  39  75 SW7       29.67F
WESTFIELD      CLOUDY    50  39  66 S5        29.67F
NORTH ADAMS    CLOUDY    52  41  66 W10       29.65F
PITTSFIELD     CLOUDY    51  40  65 SW9       29.66F
$$

RIZALL-181800-
RHODE ISLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PROVIDENCE     CLOUDY    57  43  59 W16G23    29.69F
NEWPORT        MOSUNNY   49  43  80 SW9G18    29.71F
BLOCK ISLAND   MOSUNNY   46  39  76 SW20      29.74F
SMITHFIELD     PTSUNNY   55  43  62 W9G18     29.68F
WESTERLY       MOSUNNY   50  43  77 SW10      29.73F
$$

CTZALL-181800-
CONNECTICUT

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BRADLEY INTL   CLOUDY    55  40  56 SW7       29.68F
HARTFORD       CLOUDY    54  41  61 SE5       29.71F
BRIDGEPORT     CLOUDY    45  39  79 SW6       29.75F HAZE
DANBURY        CLOUDY    52  41  66 W8        29.75F
GROTON         PTSUNNY   53  43  68 SW10G21   29.72F
NEW HAVEN      CLOUDY   N/A N/A N/A VRB6      29.74F
CHESTER        FAIR      52  46  82 SW10      29.72F
MERIDEN        CLOUDY    50  40  68 S7        29.72F
WILLIMANTIC    CLOUDY    56  42  59 VRB7G16   29.70F
OXFORD         PTSUNNY   54  41  62 W9        29.76F
$$

MEZ002-015-021-024-NHZ003-005-008-011-012-014-VTZ005-008-181800-
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PORTLAND ME    PTSUNNY   45  36  70 S5        29.58F
BANGOR ME      CLOUDY    39  37  92 CALM      29.59F FOG
CONCORD NH     CLOUDY    48  34  58 CALM      29.61F
MANCHESTER NH  PTSUNNY   48  38  68 CALM      29.60F
NASHUA NH      PTSUNNY   59  41  51 VRB3      29.63F
PORTSMOUTH NH  LGT RAIN  49  37  61 W5        29.60F
JAFFREY NH     CLOUDY    49  39  68 S8        29.62F
KEENE NH       PTSUNNY   46  39  76 CALM      29.65F
BURLINGTON VT  CLOUDY    46  38  73 S10       29.52F
MT. WASHINGTON FOG       34  34 100 W68G76      N/A  VSB 0   WCI  15

One more day...

After a downright beautiful day yesterday, we'll squeak one more out today before the chill returns tomorrow.  Temperatures yesterday were about 5 degrees warmer in many spots than I expected, which is fine with me, warmer is better than colder.  I think that warmth will carry over today so it looks like it will be warmer than I thought today as well.

Looking at the satelitte imagery this morning, there is some cloudiness around, but not nearly as much as the models think there is.  That being the case, we are going to see more sunshine than was originally thought, so temperatures should be warmer.  I now expect many places in Southern New England to reach 60 degrees this afternoon.  Futher to the north, look for 50s in Central New England with upper 40s to near 50 in Northern New England.  A few showers are possible as well today, especially in Central and Northern New England.

We will still have a cold front blast through the region tonight.  This will usher in cooler temperatures tomorrow along with gusty northwest winds, wind advisories have been posted in Southern New England as a result.  Temperatures may touch 40 in a few spots tomorrow, but we'll be stuck in the 30s for the most part.  I wouldn't rule out a few flurries or rain showers either.  Any warming that happens at the surface will rise quickly into the colder air aloft.  This should create some instability in the lower atmosphere and may kick off some precipitation.

Sunday will be similar to Saturday, without the threat of isolated flurries and showers.  It should still be breezy and cool.  Our next significant weather system arrives on Monday.  As I mentioned yesterday, the models were starting to come together with a consensus for this system.  They continue this and the solution is still on the cold side with the storm system passing to our south.  This could obviously change, but my confidence in seeing more snow than rain with this storm is increasing.  Again, it is still a little early to be overly specific, but right now south of Boston I expect rain, a wintry between Boston and the NH border and then all snow north of there.  I'll keep you updated.

The middle part of next week should be quiet, but cool.  Another brief warm up is coming late next week, but it looks like this warm up will come with rain.  We shouldn't get too concerned yet, but if this is the case, there could be some flooding problems next Friday and Saturday.

More to come, enjoy this beautiful day!

Thanks for reading and don't be afraid to share this blog!  :-)  (shameless self promotion)

-Jon K.

Winter isn't over....yet....

Nothing but good news for today and tomorrow, but some "messiness" is coming early next week.

Mild temperatures will continue for today and tomorrow before taking a tumble this weekend.  We will see a mix of sun and clouds today as high pressure is still somewhat in control of the region.  A low pressure system is getting closer which will bring in the extra cloudiness.  Temperatures should top off in the low 50s across Southern New England and in the 40s for Central and Northern New England.

The low pressure system will be on our doorstep tomorrow, but we should make it through the day before the cold front pushes through.  Temperatures will once again be mild with limited sunshine, generally in the 50s.  There could be a few scattered showers ahead of the cold front, though moisture will be hard to come by.  The best chance of any rain showers will be with the cold front as it moves through in the evening, with most of the activity located over Northern New England. 

Unfortunately, this cold front will bring cold air back to New England this weekend.  The coldest of the air won't arrive until Sunday.  Temperatures on Saturday will probably still be in the 40s for Southern New England, 30s elsewhere.  I wouldn't be too suprised to see a few flurries or rain showers in spots as well.  Look for lots of sun until about mid morning and then mainly cloudy for the remainder of the day.  Sunday will be a similar day, with a touch more sunshine, but cooler temperatures.  Highs ranging from the 20s to the north and 30s in southern areas.

The next feature to be concerned with, comes on Monday.  The timing of this has changed.  2 days ago, this looked like an issue for Tuesday, now the models are showing it moving much faster and also starting to lean toward a slightly colder solution.  The intensity of the system remains in question as well.  I'm not going to go into too much detail right now, but on Monday we should at least see a period of wintry precipitation.  My gut feeling is that the precipitation will change over to rain for a time in Southern New England, probably remaining all snow north of Concord, NH.  Much depends on the track of the storm making it difficult to pinpoint anything at this time.  More to come on this storm.

Beyond next Monday, we should be dry and cool until the end of the workweek, then it looks like another system for Saturday.

Thanks for reading and tell your friends about this blog!

-Jon K

Spring-like

The title says it all.  It will feel spring-like the next few days.  An area of high pressure will slide through the Northeast today turning our winds from a northerly direction to a southwesterly wind.  This will bring warmer air into the lower levels of the atmosphere.  Also on the back side of this high pressure a warm front will be making its way through New England today.  This will only have some cloudiness associated with it, but will enhance the temperature moderation.

This warm front is attached to a low pressure system that is currently in the Northern Plains.  Until this storm system reaches the Northeast on Friday night, we will enjoy well above normal temperatures and a decent amount of sunshine.  Today, highs will top out in the low to mid 40s in Southern New England with mid and upper 30s to near 40 in Central and Northern New England.  The warm up continues tomorrow as we will start the day relatively mild with lows in the 20s and low 30s.  This warmer start, as opposed to the single digits and teens this morning, will allow for warmer high temperatures during the day.  I expect to see most of the Southern and Central New England reaching at least 50 degrees with 40s in Northern New England on Thursday.

As the storm system gets closer on Friday we will see a bit more cloudiness.  This will inhibit the warm up slightly on Friday, but most places should still hit 50 degrees, if not the mid 50s.  If we had full sunshine on Friday, many places would reach the 60s.  There probably will be a few places that achieve this, and if it happens it will likely be in Southeastern Massachusetts.  Our best chance of any precipitation will be with the cold front that will push through the region on Friday night.  There shouldn't be all that much moisture associated with the front, so many areas will stay dry.  Highest chances for any rain showers will be in Northern New England Friday evening.

The downside to this cold front will be the blast of cold air behind it.  It looks like we have a pattern developing here and the models are indicating this as well.  We'll see a warm up for a couple days and then 3 to 5 days of chilly temperatures, followed by another warm up and then a cool down.  So it still appears that the overall weather pattern remains active across the United States, we just aren't see the abundant precipitation we were during January.

For this upcoming weekend, it will be chilly and windy with a few scattered snow showers and flurries around.  High temps in the 30s for the most part.  Our next significant chance of a plowable snow will come on Tuesday night.  Models are still a little sporadic with the track of this storm, but more are now indicating a mostly snow event at this time.  I'm keeping my eyes on it!

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Brrr....

It's cold.

After the beautiful yesterday, the chill this morning was a bit shocking.  Fortunately we don't have to deal with it for very long.  It's still pretty breezy out there, these winds should gradually subside today.  This will lead to very cold temperatures tonight, mainly in the single digits for most of the region.  Bright sunshine will continue through today with clear skies overnight.

Tomorrow will be a transition day, from cold to mild.  We will start very cold, so it won't get too warm, but we should get above freezing in most locations.  Warm air will be rushing in aloft so a few passing clouds are expected, but we will stay dry.

All of this warm air is being forced north by a storm system developing in the Central United States.  This is tapping into some warm air in the Southern Plains.  Eventually this storm will pass to our north and bring back the cold, but not until the weekend.  Thursday and Friday will also be mild, but how warm will heavily depend on how much sunshine we see.  If we get as much sun as we saw yesterday afternoon, temperatures back into 50s is highly likely, I wouldn't be suprised to see a few spots hit 60 degrees.  Conversely, if we are more heavy on the cloudiness, temperatures will only top off in the 40s.  Either way, it's a nice break from the winter temperatures for a few days.

As for precipitation when this system passes by.  There is likely going to be spotty shower activity on Friday.  I feel that most of the rain will be in Northern and Central New England.  This will be associated with the cold front as it approaches.  The front will likely move through on Friday night.  This will likely happen rather uneventfully, really only a shift in the wind as the front passes.

Saturday as the cold air rushes back in aloft, any heaiting we have at the surface will quickly rise up in the atmosphere and generate cloudiness, along with convective snow showers and squalls.  These will be isolated and short lived as the energy that creates these will be from heating.  So when it gets cloudy, that energy goes away.  It should be cyclical through mid-morning through early evening.

Beyond Saturday we will stay chilly, though temperatures will probably be seasonable and then we need to start looking to a storm system moving through the Ohio Valley early next week.  Depending on the path of this storm, we will either see snow or rain.  Right now it looks like an all snow event.  I'll keep you posted!

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Winds of change

Happy Valentine's Day everyone.  Took the day off from posting yesterday, back at the grind today.

A low pressure system approaching the Northeastern US today will push mild air, mild is a relative term for the season.  Southwesterly winds will push temperatures into the 40s for much of New England today.  This storm will pass far to the north and west of the region late today and a cold front will pass through early this evening.  I don't expect that there will be much in the precipitation with the frontal passage, but there will be a lot of wind.  These gusty winds will continue through the night and into early Tuesday before diminishing.  Wind gusts of up to 45 mph are expected with sustained winds between 15 and 30 mph for the overnight.  This may lead to a few power outages.

These winds tonight will be out of the northwest, forcing cold air back into New England.  The cool down will be short lived as the winds will turn back to the southwest on Tuesday night and then the warm up begins again.  This warm up will be much more significant and sustained.  Temperatures will gradually climb to well above normal through Friday.  Again this warm up will come in advance of a storm system that is expected to pass to the northwest of New England.  This system right now should slide by on Friday night.  I would imagine that the timing of this will waver over the next few days, but it looks like temperatures will be cooler for the upcoming weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday will give the region highs in the upper 30s and 40s and then on Friday, some places, mainly in Southern New England may reach the 50s.  The snow pack should diminish quite a bit, but I doubt we'll any grass yet.

In terms of snow fall, we may get a little over the upcoming weekend, but I won't get into specifics.  As I mentioned earlier, the location and timing of the storm system on Friday night will likely change a bit, so it's a little early to go overboard will details.

More tomorrow, thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Staying mostly dry...

There is a weak disturbance that will be passing through New England today.  This will bring the chance of a few snow showers today.  I think that most areas will stay dry as the moisture associated with the system will be wrung out by the mountains in Western New England.  This means that all the precipitation will be forced out as the air rises up over the higher terrain.  We will a bit more cloudiness around today, especially during the morning.  Skies will gradually clear throughout the day and temperatures should reach 30s in Southern New England, slightly cooler to the north.

Clouds will make a return on Sunday morning as another weak disturbance approaches.  This one will also have limited moisture.  The path of Sunday's energy will be centered further north as well, so the majority of any precipitation will be in Central and Northern New England, particularly in higher elevations, like today.  Temperatures will be in the low 30s in Southern New England with mid and upper 20s in Central and Northern New England.

A 3rd, stronger system approaches for Valentines Day.  Despite the increased intensity, there really won't be much moisture again and also this system will slide to the north of the region again.  I'll continue to leave the chance of snow showers for everyone for right now, but chances will be lower the further south you live in New England.  Temperatures will be back into the 30s for most areas, maybe some 20s in Northern New England.

Temperatures cool down on Tuesday, back in the 20s for everyone with sunshine.  Starting on Wednesday, we will really see the daily highs start to climb.  We have a pretty good chance of seeing 50 degree highs in Southern New England on Friday.

So in general, conditions will stay on the calm side, especially when you compare it to what we went through in January.

Have a good weekend and thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Come on melting!

Not too much to discuss this morning, that's a good thing.  The overall weather pattern here in the Northeast will remain relatively quiet through the weekend.  There will be the chance of a few rain or snow showers, but nothing significant.

We'll see a decent amount of sunshine today, there may be some cloudiness that develops as we head into the afternoon.  Temperatures will still be on the chilly side, generally in the 20s with a few spots hitting the low 30s, mainly in southern areas.

Saturday will begin with a bit of cloudiness and maybe a few flurries or snow showers.  Most of this activity will be centered in the higher elevations of the New England.  Other than that, temperatures will be a bit milder, low to mid 30s in Southern New England with upper 20s in Northern New England.  Sunday will also bring the slight chance of some snow showers, especially late in the day.  There may be a few rain drops mixed in with the snow at times.  This activity will be quite isolated.  Look for temperatures to be a couple degrees higher than Saturday's highs.

Monday will likely be the best chance for a widespread precipitation event.  Temperatures are going to be near or above freezing, so there might be some mixing.  For the most part, this will be a heavy wet snow for much of New England.  Accumulations still look to be on the low side, I'll provide more information on this later in the weekend.  The path of this low has been jumping around a little bit in the forecast models, I'll wait for them to come to more of a consensus before I get too detailed.

The best news will be the temperature moderation that will come late next week and next weekend.  It will be exactly what we need, and deserve.  The whole atmospheric set up will flip for a few days bringing up southerly winds.  This will force some warmer air to move in starting on Wednesday.  Exactly how long this set up will last is still in question, but I expect it to stay mild through Saturday.  During this time it also looks like it will be dry so we should see a good deal of melting.  This crucial because in most places, there is 5+ inches of liquid sitting in the snow pack.  If we were to get a warm rain, flooding would be a major concern.  I know I keep harping on this, but if we have a March like we did last year, it's not going to be pretty for low lying areas and people near rivers and streams.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

P.S. - I've added some share buttons to my blog, if you feel like someone else might like to get their weather from me, please share!  Thanks!

Still chilly now, milder air coming

We have a monster of a storm system passing south and east of New England today.  This is providing some high cloudiness to the parts of Southern New England this morning.  There looks like there might have been a few snow showers or flurries on the Cape earlier, but those have since moved to the east.

We will be under the influence of high pressure for today and tomorrow, this will keep the skies generally clear into the day on Saturday.  We'll then turn our attention to a "clipper" system riding along the US/Canada border.  A clipper refers to an Alberta Clipper.  A low pressure system that develops in the Canadian Plains and skirts along the Northern United States, usually fast moving and lacking in moisture, particularly in the winter months.  This will pass just north of New England over the weekend.

This should bring a few snow showers and flurries to the White and Green Mountains over the weekend, also bringing the chance of a few flurries or rain/snow showers to Southern New Hampshire and Northern Massachusetts.  There will probably be some light accumulations in the Mountains, but nothing elsewhere.  Temperatures this weekend in Southern New England should creep up over the freezing mark.  Central and Southern New England will stay at or below freezing.

There is still some uncertainty with any storm systems next week, but there is one thing that I am pretty sure of.  That is a warm up during the middle of next week.  We probably couldn't ask for anything better, as right now it appears that the mild air will come in with dry weather, not wet.  This will help with some melt, but won't lead to any flooding concerns.  We really need to knock down this snow pack before spring arrives or there are going to be some major problems in terms of flooding.

That is all for now.  Enjoy the cool, but pleasant conditions the next couple of days.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Dry for a few days

Enjoy it folks, quiet weather for the rest of the work week!  The last time we had no precipitation for this long was back in the first week of January.  I do have some weather features to talk about, so let me get right into it!

There has been a bit of a change in the overall weather pattern across the United States.  A large upper level trough has developed over the Eastern half of the country.  This will help us in a way as it has dug so far south that is going to force the storm system affecting the Southern Plains this morning to slide south and east of New England.  It still will be a pretty close call, the Cape and Islands might get brushed with a rain/snow mix on Friday.  Today and tomorrow will provide bright sunshine, but chilly temperatures.  Highs will only be in the 20s.  We may see a few more clouds around on Friday with that system passing south of the region, but still a good amount of sunshine, temperatures should be closer to 30 degrees.

Conditions get a little more "complicated" this weekend.  Most of the forecast models show a disturbance riding along the US-Canada border on Saturday.  This will slide through the Great Lakes and approach New England on Saturday.  I don't want to put too much trust in any one model, but a couple of them show a decent amount of precipitation with this system.  The big question will be how warm will it be here in New England.  Right now I think it will be pretty close to, or above, freezing for most of New England.  This will result in a heavy, wet snow, or a rain/snow mix.  This looks like mainly a Sunday event right now.  I'll keep an eye on it and update as necessary.

Looking even further out, there might be another weak low pressure system moving through during the middle of next week.  This will also come out of Canada so there shouldn't be too much moisture associated with it.  A lot could change with this system, but looks like another possible rain/snow event at some point during the middle of next week.

Lastly, I think people were a little confused by the sunshine today, as it took me just as long to get to work today as it has during some of the snowstorms.....

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

It's snowing! Again....

So far, snow totals in Southern New England have been between 1-2".  I haven't seen any reports from Central and Northern New England yet.  The National Weather Service office for that region isn't very timely with releasing that information. 

The first batch of snow and wintry mix has moved through and now the back edge of the precipitation is sliding through.  This will put down around 1 more inch of snow, particularly in Southern New England and along the western facing slopes of the region's mountains.  This last batch of snow should be clear of eastern areas around 2 PM.  The clouds will hang around until this evening before finally clearing.  There will be a surge of cold air behind this storm and temperatures will drop into the single digits by tomorrow morning.  Wind chill readings will be below zero overnight.

Looking at the rest of the week, conditions will remain "calm".  There will be a significant storm system that will slide out so sea south of New England on Friday.  This looks like it will bring some snow to the Mid-Atlantic and some of the Southern States.

Temperatures will stay chilly through Friday, highs will be in the mid 20s Wednesday and Thursday.  Upper 20s for Friday and then into the 30s for the upcoming weekend.  It may feel a bit warmer than it will be as we should have a good amount of sun right through Saturday.

So once you get the snow cleared up today, take a break and relax.  It's probably going to be about a week before we really have a decent chance at more snow.  If we do have anymore snow, I think early next week will be our best shot as a storm system slides out of Canada.  There shouldn't be much snow associated with this system as it will be moisture starved.

You can follow me on twitter:  jpkomarek.  You can also follow this blog by clicking follow on this page.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon

Quick update on Tuesday

Looks like things are still on track with my previous forecast.  There was a rogue batch of precipitation that slid through early this evening in Southern New England with some flurries.  The bulk of the snow showers will start after midnight and continue off and on through the morning on Tuesday.  As the storms pulls away on Tuesday afternoon the back edge of the precipitation shield will rotate through and will probably contain the heaviest snowfall.  I did add an area in Northern New Hampshire that could see a bit more snow because of terrain influences, other than that, the forecast hasn't changed.  See the forecast snow totals map below.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

A quiet period coming?

Morning folks!


I hope everyone had a good weekend.  We enjoy a gorgeous day yesterday, probably the best day we've had since sometime before Christmas.  We definitely deserve it.

We'll see another nice day today before a storm system arrives tonight.  Look for a mix of sun and clouds today with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s in Southern New England to upper 20s to around 30 in Northern New England.  Late today we'll start to see high clouds build in and these clouds will thicken and lower after the sun goes down.

Fortunately the storm coming tonight and tomorrow isn't packing the same punch it showed last week in the forecast models.  Most of the energy associated with this storm will pass well out to sea, south of New England.  There will still be some precipitation on the northern fringes of the storm, but amounts will be light.  We are likely looking at somewhere between 0.10 and 0.30 across New England.  Central and Northern New England will again see the highest snow totals with this storm, but those amounts won't be all that high.

The snow will start coming down lightly around 1 AM or so in Southern areas and by 4 AM everywhere.  It will continue off and on throughout the day.  There maybe a few pockets of moderate snow at times, but it doesn't look like there is going to be much in the way of heavy snow with this storm.  Areas southeast of a Portsmouth, NH to Worcester to Hartford line are likely not going to see any snow, or even much in the way of precipitation.  There is going to be a gap between the rain and snow.  Eventually the rain will make its way into Southeastern Massachusetts, but this shouldn't happen until mid morning.  By this time, temperatures should be above freezing so sleet and freezing rain shouldn't be an issue.

Alright, totals time:

North of that Portsmouth-Worcester-Hartford line through a line stretch Southwest to Northeast through Concord, NH:  1 to 3 inches

North of that line through Concord:  2 to 5 inches.

Looking further out, there was some concern of a storm late this week.  This looks like it is going to slide well to the south and east of New England.  Temperatures are going to be a bit chilly after the system passes by tomorrow, but we will have a good amount of sunshine.  Temperatures will stay in the 20s on Wednesday and Thursday, probably hitting 30 on Friday and then into the 30s this weekend.

Beyond this weekend, the models aren't showing much in the way of nasty weather in the Eastern United States.  There might be a few systems passing well south of the Northeast, but the majority of the unsettled weather looks like it will be focused in the Pacific Northwest.

More on tomorrow's storm later today.  Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Winter lightning

That storm yesterday turned out to be impressive.  Something that I don't think anyone was expecting happened.  Lightning, and lots of it, in a lot of places.  There were lightning strikes from Southeastern MA to Northern New Hampshire.  I don't have any numbers of how many strikes there were, but I looked at a lightning map around 10 PM and couldn't believe what I was seeing.

There was also quite a bit more freezing rain and sleet in larger area than many people expected.  Thankfully this storm hit over the weekend so the impact wasn't as big.

Waking up this morning, at least in Southern New Hampshire, temperatures had already climbed above freezing, so most of the ice that accumulated is gone.  I'm trying to find some snow totals from Central and Northern New England from yesterday and last night, but I'm not having much luck.  If any readers out there have a guess or measurement, please comment how much and where you are below.

As for what is coming in the next few days.  Today is going to be beautiful, but a bit windy, if you haven't noticed already.  Temperatures should be in the 30s, with a few spots in Southern New England hitting or climbing above 40.

Our next chance for unsettled weather will come on Monday night.  The past few model runs have been relatively consistent and they have been indicating snow for much of New England.  This next storm will be rather large, but it appears will pass pretty far to the south and east of Cape Cod.  This will put New England on the cold side of the storm, but the amount of precipitation we'll see should be lower.  I don't want to get into too much in the way of forecasting totals, but I think somewhere between a 3-6 or 4-8 inch range looks possible at this point.

I'll be a busy today and probably won't have another chance to do an update.

Hope everyone enjoys the "big game" today, if you plan on watching.  Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

P.S. - I apologize for any spelling or grammar mistakes, I was chancing a toddler around while writing this.

Mostly rain?

Looks like this storm today has shifted even further north and west than what the models expected yesterday.  This will significantly my forecast from yesterday.

The mid levels of the atmosphere, where the precipitation develops will be warming up quickly over the next few hours, climbing to above freezing.  This will cause any precipitation south of Tilton/Laconia area to fall as either rain or a wintry mix.  South of Nashua, NH, I'm expecting mainly rain now, no accumulating snow.  There could be a few heavy downpours today.  This is going to cause some minor flooding problems were street drains are clogged with snow and ice.  Between Nashua and Laconia there will be an extended period of sleet and freezing rain.  Temperatures really won't climb above freezing north of Concord, so there could be some slick spots on untreated roadways.  Look for the precipitation to end as snow late tonight, less than 2" expected.

The jackpot for snow will be north of Laconia.  The mountains will do well today and tonight.  All snow up there.  Look for 6-12 inches.  Ski Resorts will be happy.

Follow me on twitter:  jpkomarek

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Map time!

Updating a little earlier than I expected today.  I have far too much snow clean up to do tonight that I'm going to bang this out before I get too deep into that.

I was having a difficult time trying to think of how to explain what areas were going to see how much, so I decided it was time for another map.  I also decided not to second guess myself and left my forecast amounts where they were.  However, I think that most places that are in those designated zones are going to be on the low side of the ranges.  I'm leaving myself a bit of room for error on the high side in case this storm ends up a being a few degrees colder.

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Watches for Southern and Central New Hampshire and then into a good portion of Maine.  Not sure amount will be high enough to warrant this watch in Southern New Hampshire.  This probably won't be upgraded to warning, but will be changed to a Winter Weather Advisory late tonight or Saturday morning.

Most location, particularly south of Concord, NH will see the precipitation start as rain and will occasionally mix with snow.  Gradually the snow will become more prevalent until changing over completely during the evening hours.  Look for the precipitation to begin between 3 and 6 PM, reaching southwestern areas first and then progressing northeastward.  The changeover should occur sometime around 9 PM, give or take an hour, with the precipitation winding down shortly after midnight.

Here's that map I promised!

I'll have another quick update in the morning, just to make sure my forecast is still on track.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Back to the grind...

We are enjoying a beautiful day here in New England, even with the frigid start.  Many locations were well below zero this morning, but a warmer air mass is moving in and temperatures have already climbed into the 20s and 30s in many locations.  The combination of this "warmth" and bright sunshine will aid in some minor melting today, mainly on dark surfaces.  This should also help with a bit of compaction of the snow, where its not already beaten down from plows, snowblowers and shoveling.

The pleasant conditions will continue tonight and into the first half of Saturday.  I expect to see a  few hours of sunshine on Saturday morning before some high clouds move in late morning.  Gradually the clouds will thicken and lower as the storm system coming out of the Southeastern United States races northeastward.

I don't have much confidence in what I'm seeing in the forecast models this morning.  They continue to give a wide range of solutions and they didn't initialize well.  This means that with the first few hours of the forecast period, the model was already deviating from what was actually happening.  The one model that did a decent job with the first few hours of the forecast is the one that I didn't want to see.  This model gives New England the most amount of precipitation.

All that being said, I'll get into the forecast.

Areas south of Concord, NH should get warm enough to see any precipitation that arrives before 6 PM fall in the form of rain or a rain/snow mix.  As temperatures start to cool down, a change over to sleet is expected for a couple of hours before changing over to strictly snow.  This system will also be moving pretty quickly as it gets further north in latitude.  The mix of liquid in with the snow and the speed of the system will keep the amount of accumulating snow down some, but it will still likely be enough to need to be plowed, shoveled or snowblown.

So totals:

North of Concord, NH, where it will be mainly snow:  4-8 inches.  This range should extend into the White Mountains and most of Central Maine.

Between Concord, NH and I-495 in MA:  2-5 inches.  I expect higher amounts the closer you are to Concord.  This is where the rain/snow/mix line will linger on Saturday late afternoon into the evening before the change over to all snow occurs.  This changeover should happen sometime between 6 and 9 PM.

South of I-495:  This will likely be a mainly rain event with some mixing as the precipitation begins to taper off.  1 to 2 inches possible.

South of Boston will be an all rain event, most of the precipitation will be in Central and Northern New Hampshire with this event so any precipitation in this area will be short-lived.

One of the major concerns that everyone needs to be worried about is the weight of the snow on your roof.  Adding rain to this will only make that snow pack heavier.  If you haven't reduced the amount of snow on your roof already, I would highly reccommend doing this as soon as possible.


If we look even further out, we should have another busy week next week.  Look for the possibility of another storm on Monday or Tuesday.  There has been a lot of model deviation with this system.  Too soon to tell if it will hit New England or not.

I'm more concerned with what I'm seeing for the second half of next week.  Most of the longer range models have been hinting at another big storm.  This one will likely be a mess as it should include some mixed precipitation and there could be an extensive area of freezing rain.  Still way to far out to get into specifics.  I'll have more as it gets closer.

Questions/comments are welcome below.

I'll update as necessary, probably a brief update this evening.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Groundhog day?

Alright folks, we have a couple of days of relief before we have to worry about another plowable snow event.  I'm not going to spend much time talking about that because there is still too much uncertainty at this point.  I'll dive head first into that system tomorrow.  Today I want to change it up a bit.

Yesterday of course, was Groundhog Day.  I'll admit, I don't know much about the history of it, nor do I really care that much.  :-)  It is a tradition however, so it should be honored to an extent.  The rules go as follows:  If the Groundhog sees his shadow, we should expect 6 more weeks of winter, but if he doesn't see his shadow, Spring is right around the corner.

I heard a stat yesterday that the ground hog has only not seen his shadow 15 times in the 100+ years that they have done this.  That basically mean, the other 89(i think) times, he has basically said that spring is going to start on time.  February 2nd, plus 6 weeks puts us very close to the official start of spring.  So basically, things are going according to the nature change of seasons.  This year, he DIDN'T see his shadow, which according to the legend, or whatever you want to call it, Spring will be arriving early.  And it's to that, I call shenanighans, well, partial shenanighans.

Here's why: 
1.  Look at all the snow on the ground.  It's not going anywhere for a while.  Once that cold layer gets there, its hard to move out, cold air is more dense than warm air.  That makes its hard to move.

2.  There is a large cork in the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean.  This plug in the atmosphere is essentially restricting the zonal, west to east, flow around the earth.  Instead of the west to east flow, we have a more north to south flow, and that is pulling air from Russia, across Canada down into the Central and Eastern United States.  This is also one of the main reasons we are getting all these storms, we are sitting right on the storm pathway.  Until that blocking high pressure breaks down, the storminess will continue.

There is two things working in our favor.  Longer days and an increasing sun angle.  The more sun we have and the higher it gets in the sky, the warmer it will get.  This will happen even if there is a lot of snow on the ground, it just takes longer.  One of the problems we have had this year is that the sun has not really been out between storms and if it was, it was too darn cold for the sun to do anything to melt or compact the snow.

I'm expecting the frequency of storms to remain moderate to high, but will gradually see them bring more mixed and rain to the region over the next 4 weeks.  I have a feeling we will not have a very nice Spring this year.  It will likely be on the chilly side and unfortunately with all this snow, the concern of flooding will be high.

Lastly, I'm looking for suggestions on what you would like to see in this blog.  Do you have weather questions that you would like answered?  I'm all ears.

You can follow me on twitter @ jpkomarek

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Round 2 nearly done

Phew, this one is almost out of here.  The bulk of the precipitation associated with the main low pressure system is working eastward and should be clear New England by mid afternoon.  There will still be a few leftover snow showers from time to time into the early evening, but additional accumulations will be light.

The best chance for 1-3" of additional snow will be in Central and Northern New England.  A trailing line of light to occasional moderate snow will move across the region late this afternoon and tonight.  This line is currently over the Great Lakes.

I'm regretting making a "Storm Totals" map for this 2 day storm.  It would have been for my own, well yours as well, satisfaction.  I like to keep track of how well I did in my forecasting.  Which in this case wasn't some of my best.  Anyway, here is a link to a neat page that the National Weather Service creates.  Snow totals in map form.

Once you get all the snow cleared out, get some rest because it doesn't look like we are done yet.  Most of the longer range forecast models are pointing at 3 more storms.  Yes I said 3.

Next up would be Saturday, mainly on Saturday afternoon/evening.  Beyond that we are looking at another potential system on Tuesday and maybe another for next Friday.

Stay tuned and thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Busted...

Just a short one this morning as I have a lot of other stuff happening.

I can't be right all the time and this is going to be one of those times.  I debated with myself for several hours about changing my forecasted totals and in the end, I decide to raise them.  In hindsight, I should have left them where they were as those numbers are going to better represent the snow/sleet we are going to end up with.

This storm was poorly handled by the guidance models yesterday and this caused several meteorologists to over forecast the snow for today.

Basically, subtract about 6 inches from the snow total map from yesterday and that will be a pretty good picture of what everyone will see today.

As time allows today, I will post more, particularly any snow totals.

Storm totals map

Well, I've decided to raise my forecasted totals a little bit.  Tomorrow is going to be a rough day here in New England.  Good for the ski resorts, bad for everyone else....

Borrowed the base map from the alma mater!  Thanks Plymouth State!

More in the morning....

-Jon K

End of Round 1

The first round of the snow onslaught is just about complete.  There will still be periodic snow showers/squalls/flurries into the early evening, especially in Central and Eastern Massachusetts.

The second system is going full force right now.  This is an image I grabbed from the National Weather Service earlier today:

The pink color is Winter Storms Warnings.  They stretch from Eastern Maine all the way to Southwestern New Mexico.  The red are Blizzard Warnings, Detroit to Oklahoma City.  This storm is a monster.  Since grabbing this image, they have added some Ice Storm Warnings north of New York City and in Southern Indiana.  Oh, I almost forgot about the thunderstorms associated with this.  Tornado watches are up along the Gulf Coast.

So back to what happened today.  My forecast was a bit on the high side.  Most places will likely come in around 6 inches.  There are a few spots that will end up near 8 or 9 inches, mainly in Central Massachusetts.  4-8 would have been a better forecast.  I decided to stick with the numbers I had in my head last night.  Too stubborn I guess to lower my forecast.  :-)

Here are the latest observations from Southern New England:  Southern New England Snow totals
Not many reports in so far for Central and Northern New Hampshire yet.

Anyway, we'll have a bit of a break this evening and overnight before the snow picks up again after midnight.  It looks like its going to arrive a bit earlier than I first thought.  Instead of coming around 5 or 6 AM, its probably going to be closer to 3 or 4 AM.  The heaviest of the snow will likely be coming down toward the end of the morning commute into the early afternoon.  Snow will continue right into the evening hours before tapering off near midnight, lasting a bit longer in the higher terrain in Central and Northern New Hampshire.

Not going to change my forecast totals at this time.  I'm fairly confident based on the amount of liquid all the guidance models are showing along with where the rain/snow line will set up.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

And the plot thickens...

And in this case, plot = snow pack.

I don't even know where to begin.   I feel like I keep saying the same thing in every blog.  It's going to snow and it's currently snowing.

So far it looks like my call for 6-10" of snow from near Providence, RI to Manchester, NH will work out today.  Jackpot is going to be in Central MA.  The back edge of this first round of snow is moving through Central New York right now, but I expect to see that backfill a bit as the second piece of this storm gets closer.  We really won't see much in a break from the snow.  Essentially the snow will "let up" for a 6 to 8 hour period tonight, before picking up in intensity again.

Looking at what the forecast guidance models are showing this morning, forecasting snow totals tomorrow will be difficult.  All of the models are showing a bit more warm air moving in a few thousand feet over our heads than they were originally.  This warmer air moving in works to change the precipitation over from snow to liquid.  Forecast models usually have a difficult time with this as it can be affected by the amount of snow that is currently on the ground.  We all know there is plenty of snow on the ground, but this is another variable that the guidance models struggle with.

OK, so here it goes.  Starting from south to north.  CT, RI and into Southeastern MA will see a brief period of snow overnight into early before the precipitation changes over to sleet and then rain, 2-4" of additional snow there, not including what falls today.

Mass Border of CT and RI north to near Route 2:  This is where it is going to be tricky.  Where that rain/snow/sleet line develops will significantly affect amounts.  4-8" is a good bet here, with some higher amounts in some of the higher elevations, Worcester hills and Berkshires may get over 10".

North of Route 2 into Southern and Central New Hampshire.  This should stay mainly snow and because of that, amounts in this area will be the highest.  Look for an additional 6-12".  This will bring snow totals to between 16 to 24".  I fully expect to see a few spots receive over 2 feet, but I'm not going to forecast for a few outliers.

I'll be back later on today with an update and a look out to what we might see over the weekend.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K

Blog happening a little late this morning

Sorry folks, I have a meeting this morning that will prevent me from giving a full blog update until after 10:30 AM.

Snow is moving in from south to north now.  Worst of the snow will be during the middle of the day before tapering off a bit in the afternoon.

I will leave you with a thought, especially for those people wondering why we are getting hammered this winter.  Think back on this past summer.  It was one of the nicest summers I've experienced in New England.  We were also very, very dry.  Mother Nature has a way of "balancing" things out.....

Back with more later.

-Jon K