And the plot thickens...

And in this case, plot = snow pack.

I don't even know where to begin.   I feel like I keep saying the same thing in every blog.  It's going to snow and it's currently snowing.

So far it looks like my call for 6-10" of snow from near Providence, RI to Manchester, NH will work out today.  Jackpot is going to be in Central MA.  The back edge of this first round of snow is moving through Central New York right now, but I expect to see that backfill a bit as the second piece of this storm gets closer.  We really won't see much in a break from the snow.  Essentially the snow will "let up" for a 6 to 8 hour period tonight, before picking up in intensity again.

Looking at what the forecast guidance models are showing this morning, forecasting snow totals tomorrow will be difficult.  All of the models are showing a bit more warm air moving in a few thousand feet over our heads than they were originally.  This warmer air moving in works to change the precipitation over from snow to liquid.  Forecast models usually have a difficult time with this as it can be affected by the amount of snow that is currently on the ground.  We all know there is plenty of snow on the ground, but this is another variable that the guidance models struggle with.

OK, so here it goes.  Starting from south to north.  CT, RI and into Southeastern MA will see a brief period of snow overnight into early before the precipitation changes over to sleet and then rain, 2-4" of additional snow there, not including what falls today.

Mass Border of CT and RI north to near Route 2:  This is where it is going to be tricky.  Where that rain/snow/sleet line develops will significantly affect amounts.  4-8" is a good bet here, with some higher amounts in some of the higher elevations, Worcester hills and Berkshires may get over 10".

North of Route 2 into Southern and Central New Hampshire.  This should stay mainly snow and because of that, amounts in this area will be the highest.  Look for an additional 6-12".  This will bring snow totals to between 16 to 24".  I fully expect to see a few spots receive over 2 feet, but I'm not going to forecast for a few outliers.

I'll be back later on today with an update and a look out to what we might see over the weekend.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K