A quick update here, mainly to update amounts and the timing of the storm on Tuesday.
Judging by the current radar imagery and what the late day model runs are showing, I think we are going to see a bit more snow that I originally expected. I feel pretty safe saying that 6-10 inches in a wide swath from Northern Rhode Island into Southern New Hampshire. South of Providence amounts will be significantly less, on the order of 2-4 inches because of mixing with rain and sleet.
As for timing, the snow will quickly overspread the region beginning around 5 AM in Connecticut and Rhode Island, reaching Manchester, NH by 8AM. The most intense period of snow will happen between 11AM and 3 PM. Snow will taper off during the evening hours before flaring back up on Wednesday morning.
I'll have more on Tuesday morning.
Be safe and thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Here we go again and again...
More snow. It's coming.
A strong storm developing in the Central United States is going to have a major impact the Eastern half of the country starting today and continuing through Wednesday night. Travel will be significantly impacted from Dallas to Chicago to Boston. There are Blizzard Watches up for Chicago and Winter Storm Warnings in effect across parts of the Mississippi Valley. Check out http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ to see where all the watches, warnings and advisories are currently in effect.
Focusing more on New England, we are looking at a 2 day event. A smaller scale but still significant snow on Tuesday followed by the main storm on Wednesday with even more snow. The "good" thing about this 2 day event is that each day will focus on different areas. Based on what I'm seeing right now, Southern New England will see the brunt of Tuesday's snow, where Central and Northern New England will see the majority of the snow on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, I'm expecting to see the snow start right around sunrise, picking up in intensity after the morning commute. So it will like be a slow ride to work tomorrow for most commuters. Amounts should be generally uniform. I expect that Central Massachusetts, mainly in the higher elevations will receive the highest amounts. Look for 4-8 inches of snow stretched out of over a 10 to 12 hour period on Tuesday.
We'll receive a brief break from the snow on Tuesday night before the precipitation arrives with the next system. Like Tuesday's storm, most of the snow on Wednesday will come during daylight hours, the heaviest of the snow falling between 7 AM and 7 PM. In Southern New England this will likely be a wet and heavy snow, keeping snow totals down a little bit. I think there will still be another 6-10 inches north of the Mass. Pike into Southern New Hampshire. From Manchester, NH northwards into the White Mountains, 1 to 2 feet of snow is a distinct possibility. South of I-90, amounts will be a bit lower, 4-8 except along the south coast and on the Cape as some rain and sleet will mix in.
It appears that Upstate New York, from Buffalo to the Adirondacks may receive the worst of this system, there could be a long swath of 2 feet of snow. That swath will likely stretch into Central Vermont and New Hampshire.
If I have a chance I'll update again later about Tuesday's storm and will definitely have more information tomorrow on Wednesday's storm.
-Bearer of bad new Jon :-)
A strong storm developing in the Central United States is going to have a major impact the Eastern half of the country starting today and continuing through Wednesday night. Travel will be significantly impacted from Dallas to Chicago to Boston. There are Blizzard Watches up for Chicago and Winter Storm Warnings in effect across parts of the Mississippi Valley. Check out http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ to see where all the watches, warnings and advisories are currently in effect.
Focusing more on New England, we are looking at a 2 day event. A smaller scale but still significant snow on Tuesday followed by the main storm on Wednesday with even more snow. The "good" thing about this 2 day event is that each day will focus on different areas. Based on what I'm seeing right now, Southern New England will see the brunt of Tuesday's snow, where Central and Northern New England will see the majority of the snow on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, I'm expecting to see the snow start right around sunrise, picking up in intensity after the morning commute. So it will like be a slow ride to work tomorrow for most commuters. Amounts should be generally uniform. I expect that Central Massachusetts, mainly in the higher elevations will receive the highest amounts. Look for 4-8 inches of snow stretched out of over a 10 to 12 hour period on Tuesday.
We'll receive a brief break from the snow on Tuesday night before the precipitation arrives with the next system. Like Tuesday's storm, most of the snow on Wednesday will come during daylight hours, the heaviest of the snow falling between 7 AM and 7 PM. In Southern New England this will likely be a wet and heavy snow, keeping snow totals down a little bit. I think there will still be another 6-10 inches north of the Mass. Pike into Southern New Hampshire. From Manchester, NH northwards into the White Mountains, 1 to 2 feet of snow is a distinct possibility. South of I-90, amounts will be a bit lower, 4-8 except along the south coast and on the Cape as some rain and sleet will mix in.
It appears that Upstate New York, from Buffalo to the Adirondacks may receive the worst of this system, there could be a long swath of 2 feet of snow. That swath will likely stretch into Central Vermont and New Hampshire.
If I have a chance I'll update again later about Tuesday's storm and will definitely have more information tomorrow on Wednesday's storm.
-Bearer of bad new Jon :-)
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Ok Mother Nature...we've had enough!
I saw something today that I really didn't expect..or want. What is that you ask?
It would be the potential for 3, yes 3 more plowable snow events in the next 10 days. Just as I thought the overall weather pattern was starting to calm down and flatten out, it appear a huge ridge of high pressure will build in the Eastern Pacific. The location of this ridge will keep the storm track moving through the Northeastern United States. Until this breaks down, we'll be staring down the barrel of the gun.
This doesn't bode well for many locations who have already broken or are near to breaking the all time snowfall records for the month of January. Granted January is nearly over, but if we have a 2 or 3 more weeks like the last 4, season snowfall records may be broken by the end of February.
There is still a lot of uncertainty about the first storm we will see, but the timing of when it will arrive has been consistent. Late Wednesday into Thursday. This storm is going to affect a larger audience as well. Stretching from the Central United States, through the Ohio Valley/Appalachians and then into the Northeastern. As I mentioned in previous blogs, there will be a bit more warm air associated with this system, so I would expect to see some mixed precipitation in spots. I also expect to see some news stories and video of cars sliding all over the place in the Mississippi Valley because of freezing rain in places.
We'll see how it all shakes out, but either way this system will have a big impact on a lot of people. On the plus side, for skiers and snowboarders, the mountains of New England should actually see some snow out of this and from what I hear, they need it. Most of the resorts have burned through their snow making budget for the season and it's barely half over.
Looking a bit futher out into the future, I do see 2 more storm chances, plowable storms to be more precise. Sometime around the 5th/6th and then the 3rd system around the 8th/9th.
Until next time, thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
It would be the potential for 3, yes 3 more plowable snow events in the next 10 days. Just as I thought the overall weather pattern was starting to calm down and flatten out, it appear a huge ridge of high pressure will build in the Eastern Pacific. The location of this ridge will keep the storm track moving through the Northeastern United States. Until this breaks down, we'll be staring down the barrel of the gun.
This doesn't bode well for many locations who have already broken or are near to breaking the all time snowfall records for the month of January. Granted January is nearly over, but if we have a 2 or 3 more weeks like the last 4, season snowfall records may be broken by the end of February.
There is still a lot of uncertainty about the first storm we will see, but the timing of when it will arrive has been consistent. Late Wednesday into Thursday. This storm is going to affect a larger audience as well. Stretching from the Central United States, through the Ohio Valley/Appalachians and then into the Northeastern. As I mentioned in previous blogs, there will be a bit more warm air associated with this system, so I would expect to see some mixed precipitation in spots. I also expect to see some news stories and video of cars sliding all over the place in the Mississippi Valley because of freezing rain in places.
We'll see how it all shakes out, but either way this system will have a big impact on a lot of people. On the plus side, for skiers and snowboarders, the mountains of New England should actually see some snow out of this and from what I hear, they need it. Most of the resorts have burned through their snow making budget for the season and it's barely half over.
Looking a bit futher out into the future, I do see 2 more storm chances, plowable storms to be more precise. Sometime around the 5th/6th and then the 3rd system around the 8th/9th.
Until next time, thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Eating my words?
So....yesterday I was going on and on about how we were likely done with the crazy weather here in the Northeast. I might be chewing on those words now. I'll get to more about that later on in this post, let's focus on what is going to happen this weekend.
We have two weak systems that will pass through, one today and another on Saturday. The system sliding through today will stay south of the region, mainly only causing some cloudiness. A stray snow shower or flurry isn't out of the question. Any accumulations will be less than 1". The system coming in tomorrow will have a bit more moisture associated with it, along with more upper atmosphere support. This will result in more widespread snowfall. Some spots may see up to 2" of snow. Best chances for this happening will be in Central and Eastern Massachusetts. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s and low 30s over the weekend for highs and dropping back into the teens overnight.
Now if we look further out into the future, referring to the middle of next week, we could potentially have to deal with another storm. This one will be a bit different from the ones we have seen over the last 4 weeks. The previous few storms have developed along the East Coast and moved northward. The storm that the models are hinting at for next week develops in the Southern Plains, Texas/Oklahoma. This will pull moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, so it will be juicy. However, usually these storms tend to have a bit more warm air associated with them, because of where the moisture is coming from. The exact track of this potential storm is still uncertain and will probably stay uncertain until early next week. At this time it appears to be a fast moving system that will bring a mix of rain/snow/sleet to New England.
I'll be keeping an eye on this over the weekend and will be updating as I can and when I have any new thoughts or information.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K
We have two weak systems that will pass through, one today and another on Saturday. The system sliding through today will stay south of the region, mainly only causing some cloudiness. A stray snow shower or flurry isn't out of the question. Any accumulations will be less than 1". The system coming in tomorrow will have a bit more moisture associated with it, along with more upper atmosphere support. This will result in more widespread snowfall. Some spots may see up to 2" of snow. Best chances for this happening will be in Central and Eastern Massachusetts. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s and low 30s over the weekend for highs and dropping back into the teens overnight.
Now if we look further out into the future, referring to the middle of next week, we could potentially have to deal with another storm. This one will be a bit different from the ones we have seen over the last 4 weeks. The previous few storms have developed along the East Coast and moved northward. The storm that the models are hinting at for next week develops in the Southern Plains, Texas/Oklahoma. This will pull moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, so it will be juicy. However, usually these storms tend to have a bit more warm air associated with them, because of where the moisture is coming from. The exact track of this potential storm is still uncertain and will probably stay uncertain until early next week. At this time it appears to be a fast moving system that will bring a mix of rain/snow/sleet to New England.
I'll be keeping an eye on this over the weekend and will be updating as I can and when I have any new thoughts or information.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K
Thursday, January 27, 2011
More Storm Post-Mortem
I looked into the storm from last night a bit more this morning and I'm finding that my forecast may have been a bit more off than I first thought. I also didn't realize just how bad New York City was hit by this storm. See the image below:
Thanks to Dan F. for the link.(Image from the National Weather Service)
Those reds in there are 15-20 inches. Not too many meteorologists were expecting to see that much snow in NYC from this storm. If this extended down toward Philly, you would see more reds into NJ and Eastern PA.
Impressive.
The yellows that you see on the map above was where I was expecting to see 6-12, so my range was a little low. I hope to implement a snowfall forecast graphic in the future. There were a few places in Worcester County that got more than 15" that aren't represented well on this image. The northern extent of the snow was a bit further to the north than I predicted as well. The storm wrapped up nicely as it moved to the east of Long Island which pushed the snow further inland.
Ok, that's enough about this storm. Feel free to ask any questions in the comments section below.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon
Thanks to Dan F. for the link.(Image from the National Weather Service)
Those reds in there are 15-20 inches. Not too many meteorologists were expecting to see that much snow in NYC from this storm. If this extended down toward Philly, you would see more reds into NJ and Eastern PA.
Impressive.
The yellows that you see on the map above was where I was expecting to see 6-12, so my range was a little low. I hope to implement a snowfall forecast graphic in the future. There were a few places in Worcester County that got more than 15" that aren't represented well on this image. The northern extent of the snow was a bit further to the north than I predicted as well. The storm wrapped up nicely as it moved to the east of Long Island which pushed the snow further inland.
Ok, that's enough about this storm. Feel free to ask any questions in the comments section below.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon
January 26th 8:30 AM
Well, that was an interesting storm. Still looking over some of the reports and data from this event. Most of the snow that we received here in New England fell in the span of about 3 hours. The snow on either side of this 3 hour period was light and didn't amount to much. The height of the storm was between 2 and 5 AM. One report from CT said they received 7" of snow in 1.5 hours. That is heavy, heavy snow. The storm turned our to be slightly more intense than I forecasted, but I still think there will only be spotty reports of places getting over 12"
If you are interested in seeing some of the storm totals, click here.
When I measured the snow in the driveway in Hudson, NH this morning at 5:15 AM, we had about 5 inches. By the time I was done snowblowing we might have gotten another half an inch.
In mid December I told a few friends that I felt we would have 4-6 week of chaotic storms then things would calm down and it would likely remain cold.
Well, guess what has happened. Beginning just after Christmas '10, 4 weeks ago, we had a major storm with blizzard conditions in many locations, the following week we had another big storm that dropped over 2 feet of snow in some locations. The 3rd week, we had two events, smaller in magitude, but dropping several inches. And then this week, the storm from yesterday and overnight. Looking at some of the longer range forecast models, there isn't anything on the horizon in terms of significant storms. What all the models are showing however is about 1-2 weeks of very cold conditions that will develop next week. This will be similar to the cold we had over this past weekend. Several days of low temperatures below 0 and highs struggling to get to double digits.
As for precipitation, we are likely to have quick hitting, low moisture storms coming from the Great Lakes every 3 days or so. Mostly these will only result in flurries or snow showers that will produce 1-2" if they are robust. For the most part, they will put down a dusting to 1".
So we should be done with BIG storms for a few weeks at least. I wouldn't be surprised to see 1 or 2 more as we head into March as we get closer to the change of seasons when warmer air starts making it's way north again....
Check for another update later, probably a bit more post-mortem on the storm from overnight.
-Jon K.
If you are interested in seeing some of the storm totals, click here.
When I measured the snow in the driveway in Hudson, NH this morning at 5:15 AM, we had about 5 inches. By the time I was done snowblowing we might have gotten another half an inch.
In mid December I told a few friends that I felt we would have 4-6 week of chaotic storms then things would calm down and it would likely remain cold.
Well, guess what has happened. Beginning just after Christmas '10, 4 weeks ago, we had a major storm with blizzard conditions in many locations, the following week we had another big storm that dropped over 2 feet of snow in some locations. The 3rd week, we had two events, smaller in magitude, but dropping several inches. And then this week, the storm from yesterday and overnight. Looking at some of the longer range forecast models, there isn't anything on the horizon in terms of significant storms. What all the models are showing however is about 1-2 weeks of very cold conditions that will develop next week. This will be similar to the cold we had over this past weekend. Several days of low temperatures below 0 and highs struggling to get to double digits.
As for precipitation, we are likely to have quick hitting, low moisture storms coming from the Great Lakes every 3 days or so. Mostly these will only result in flurries or snow showers that will produce 1-2" if they are robust. For the most part, they will put down a dusting to 1".
So we should be done with BIG storms for a few weeks at least. I wouldn't be surprised to see 1 or 2 more as we head into March as we get closer to the change of seasons when warmer air starts making it's way north again....
Check for another update later, probably a bit more post-mortem on the storm from overnight.
-Jon K.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
4:30 PM Weather Update
Sitting here at work in Andover, MA and I see the snow is just starting to fall. Looks like my forecast for timing is working out pretty well. It started a little sooner than I expected south of here, but I would say I was pretty close. Anyway, the snow will continue to ever so slowly move north as the second area of low pressure I mentioned in my early post approaches the Northeast.
The mid afternoon forecast models haven't changed much from where they were this morning. They have hinted that the center of the second low pressure system will move a bit closer to the coast, which means the axis of heavier snow will also be a bit more toward the north and west. I don't think I want to change my forecast #'s too much, but it looks like instead of the heaviest snow being Boston southward, it may be more centered over Boston with some higher amounts extending north of the city. The heaviest snow will likely staying inside of I-95/Rt. 128. My snow ranges are going to stay the same.
Still looks like the snow will taper off before the morning commute on Thursday. Lingering snow showers could be leftover as the storm pulls away. Hopefully the plow crews will be be out during the night, making for a somewhat easier commute. See below for the storm totals, not changed from earlier.
Inside I-95/Rt. 128 to Cape Cod Canal 8-12" Areas in northern RI and Southeastern MA will likely be the closest to 12" with perhaps a few spots over 1 foot of snow
Outside of Rt. 128 north and west toward I-495 and into Worcester - 6-10"
Outside I-495 to near Nashua and North Central MA - 3-6"
North of Nashua to Concord - dusting to 3" that dusting will be closer to Concord.
There is going to be pretty tight gradient where the snow cuts off. The hardest thing to determine with this storm was where the northern extent of the snow would be.
Check for a possible update for hitting the sack tonight.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
The mid afternoon forecast models haven't changed much from where they were this morning. They have hinted that the center of the second low pressure system will move a bit closer to the coast, which means the axis of heavier snow will also be a bit more toward the north and west. I don't think I want to change my forecast #'s too much, but it looks like instead of the heaviest snow being Boston southward, it may be more centered over Boston with some higher amounts extending north of the city. The heaviest snow will likely staying inside of I-95/Rt. 128. My snow ranges are going to stay the same.
Still looks like the snow will taper off before the morning commute on Thursday. Lingering snow showers could be leftover as the storm pulls away. Hopefully the plow crews will be be out during the night, making for a somewhat easier commute. See below for the storm totals, not changed from earlier.
Inside I-95/Rt. 128 to Cape Cod Canal 8-12" Areas in northern RI and Southeastern MA will likely be the closest to 12" with perhaps a few spots over 1 foot of snow
Outside of Rt. 128 north and west toward I-495 and into Worcester - 6-10"
Outside I-495 to near Nashua and North Central MA - 3-6"
North of Nashua to Concord - dusting to 3" that dusting will be closer to Concord.
There is going to be pretty tight gradient where the snow cuts off. The hardest thing to determine with this storm was where the northern extent of the snow would be.
Check for a possible update for hitting the sack tonight.
Thanks for reading!
-Jon K.
January 25-26th Storm thoughts
Yay, first blog ever. We'll see how long I can keep this up.
This was my brother's idea, so if this takes off, all thanks go to him.
I've been forecasting on an off for about 6 years now and I can honestly say this has been the toughest snow event I've had to deal with. The forecast models continue to show different paths and outcomes of this system, even just 6 hours before the storm is schedule to start. Makes for a stressed out meteorologist. Fortunately I don't have anything riding on this, as in customer's, so it's not as stressful.
Anyway, this storm is seperated into 2 individual lows. One that will move through, grazing Southern New England with some snow and a rain/snow mix in extreme Southern New England, South Coast to the Cape. We'll the second batch of precipitation, mainly snow with more mixing south of I-90, beginning late afternoon, reaching Northern MA and Southern NH sometime between 4 and 7 PM. There is still a lot uncertainty for amounts, but I have to come up with something, so here it is.
Inside I-95/128 - 8-12"
Between 128 and 495 6-10"
North of 495 to just north of Nashua - 3-6"
North of Nashua to about Concord 1-3"
Snow should be ending between 7 and 9 AM on Thursday morning.
Hopefully I'll have time to do another update late this afternoon.
-Jon
This was my brother's idea, so if this takes off, all thanks go to him.
I've been forecasting on an off for about 6 years now and I can honestly say this has been the toughest snow event I've had to deal with. The forecast models continue to show different paths and outcomes of this system, even just 6 hours before the storm is schedule to start. Makes for a stressed out meteorologist. Fortunately I don't have anything riding on this, as in customer's, so it's not as stressful.
Anyway, this storm is seperated into 2 individual lows. One that will move through, grazing Southern New England with some snow and a rain/snow mix in extreme Southern New England, South Coast to the Cape. We'll the second batch of precipitation, mainly snow with more mixing south of I-90, beginning late afternoon, reaching Northern MA and Southern NH sometime between 4 and 7 PM. There is still a lot uncertainty for amounts, but I have to come up with something, so here it is.
Inside I-95/128 - 8-12"
Between 128 and 495 6-10"
North of 495 to just north of Nashua - 3-6"
North of Nashua to about Concord 1-3"
Snow should be ending between 7 and 9 AM on Thursday morning.
Hopefully I'll have time to do another update late this afternoon.
-Jon
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)