Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Brrr....

It's cold.

After the beautiful yesterday, the chill this morning was a bit shocking.  Fortunately we don't have to deal with it for very long.  It's still pretty breezy out there, these winds should gradually subside today.  This will lead to very cold temperatures tonight, mainly in the single digits for most of the region.  Bright sunshine will continue through today with clear skies overnight.

Tomorrow will be a transition day, from cold to mild.  We will start very cold, so it won't get too warm, but we should get above freezing in most locations.  Warm air will be rushing in aloft so a few passing clouds are expected, but we will stay dry.

All of this warm air is being forced north by a storm system developing in the Central United States.  This is tapping into some warm air in the Southern Plains.  Eventually this storm will pass to our north and bring back the cold, but not until the weekend.  Thursday and Friday will also be mild, but how warm will heavily depend on how much sunshine we see.  If we get as much sun as we saw yesterday afternoon, temperatures back into 50s is highly likely, I wouldn't be suprised to see a few spots hit 60 degrees.  Conversely, if we are more heavy on the cloudiness, temperatures will only top off in the 40s.  Either way, it's a nice break from the winter temperatures for a few days.

As for precipitation when this system passes by.  There is likely going to be spotty shower activity on Friday.  I feel that most of the rain will be in Northern and Central New England.  This will be associated with the cold front as it approaches.  The front will likely move through on Friday night.  This will likely happen rather uneventfully, really only a shift in the wind as the front passes.

Saturday as the cold air rushes back in aloft, any heaiting we have at the surface will quickly rise up in the atmosphere and generate cloudiness, along with convective snow showers and squalls.  These will be isolated and short lived as the energy that creates these will be from heating.  So when it gets cloudy, that energy goes away.  It should be cyclical through mid-morning through early evening.

Beyond Saturday we will stay chilly, though temperatures will probably be seasonable and then we need to start looking to a storm system moving through the Ohio Valley early next week.  Depending on the path of this storm, we will either see snow or rain.  Right now it looks like an all snow event.  I'll keep you posted!

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

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