Sunday AM Sandy update

I apologize for my lack of blog posts yesterday.  I had numerous chores to take care of around the house that was more important.

In the grand scheme of things, my outlook has not changed.  My forecast of a Central NJ landfall continues.  All the forecast models are trending toward this solution.  HOWEVER, this is not the only area that will be impacted.  The "zone" of impact is very, very large.  Tropical storm force winds will extend some 500 miles away from the center of the storm, particularly on the north and west side of the storm.  That means that from Northern NH and VT westward to Buffalo and Pittsburgh will experience winds and wind gusts over 35 mph.  This is going to lead to power outages and damage.  I believe the worst of the damage is going to be in Northern NJ, NYC area and Southern CT and RI.  Further inland the reports of damage will be a bit more widespread.  Here is a good depiction of the large area of impact Sandy will have, taken from The Weather Channel:

As you can see that nearly the entire Northeastern United States along with a good portion of the Mid-Atlantic will feel the effects of the very large weather system.

Currently, the National Hurricane Center is still calling Sandy a hurricane, however, the tropical characteristics are all but gone.  It appears the reason they are continuing to give a name to Sandy and classify it as a "tropical" system to highlight the importance of the event.  They likely don't want to the public to disregard the impacts.

High winds are already lashing the North Carolina coast.  Conditions will continue to deteriorate further to the north on the Delmarva Peninsula and into NJ throughout the day today and tonight.  By tomorrow morning, there will be tropical storm force winds covering the NYC Metro area into Southern New England.  Through the day on Monday, the area of tropical storm force winds will spread north and westward encompassing nearly all of New England and much of NY and PA.

I stress that you need to pay close attention to local media outlets and obey any orders given by local authorities.  This could be a once in a lifetime storm and it is nothing to take lightly.  This is especially the case form Cape Cod, down the Eastern Seaboard to Cape Hatteras.  Please be safe.

I hope to have another update this afternoon.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon

Last Friday update

Not too much to report on, at least in the form of changes.  Models run are just starting to trickle and I'm too tired to stay up to wait for them to finish.

The National Hurricane Center has done something that I find rather curious.  They have shifted their forecast a bit further to the south, despite all the forecast models showing a more northern solution in the latest model runs.  Seems strange to me, but they are professionals and must see something that suggests this.  The offical track from the Hurricane Center takes the center of the system up the Delaware River.

I'm still thinking that this system makes landfall in Central NJ, probably just north of Atlantic City.  At this point, it will no longer be considered a hurricane.  It will have lost all of it's tropical characteristics.  HOWEVER; wind speeds will exceed hurricane force strength, especially wind gusts.  This will particularly be the case on the northern side of the system.

So Northern NJ, NYC, Long Island, Cape Cod and the South Coast of New England will have some very strong winds from this system, despite the center staying south of these areas.  Widespread damage and power outages are expected in this region, with power outages expected from Central NH westward to Buffalo, NY and southward into West Virginia. 

Also, expect to see some heavy snow on the back side of the system, primarily in Eastern Ohio and especially in the hills of West Virginia.  Up to a foot of snow isn't out of the question at higher elevations in WV.

That's going to do it for today.  If anyone has any questions, let me know.  More updates coming tomorrow between my own preparations for this storm.

-Jon

Update #3

All the Friday morning model runs have shifted the track of Sandy further to the north.  This is an interesting development, but not something that should be bought, hook, line and sinker.  It's just one mathematical solution to a very complex storm.

Currently, Sandy is going through a transformation from a tropical system to a subtropical or extra tropical storm.  Recent satellite images show almost no convection on the southern side of the storm.  Full-fledged tropical systems almost always have a closed core of convection.  This transition is happening as it interacts with a strong upper level low pressure system.  As this happens, Sandy will weaken initially, which is already happening.  However, once the transition to fully complete, Sandy will begin to strengthen again.

There are a lot of similarities with this situation and what happened during the "Perfect Storm" in 1991.  They may even happen on the same exact day.

I stress that much can and probably will change over the next couple of days.  However, if you have interests in the Northeast, from Delaware to Portland, ME, you need to start acting now.  I believe that a landfall somewhere between Southern NJ and Montauk, NY is the most likely scenario.

The wind field for Sandy will be very large.  Tropical Storm force winds will extend several hundred miles out away from the center of the storm and there will likely be hurricane force wind gusts on the east and northern side of the system.  To the north of Sandy when she makes landfall will be an area of high pressure.  The collision of Sandy into this high will help to increase wind speeds and this will happen on the north side of the storm's center.

That's enough gloom and doom for now.  More to come....

-Jon

Model snapshot for Sunday night

Below are 2 snapshots of where Sandy is forecast to be by the 2 models meteorologists are relying on heavily at this point.  Images come from weather.unisys.com.  Full credit goes to them.

This is the European model which was the first to hint that Sandy would be a problem for the Eastern US.  You'll notice that the center(all the closed circles east of the Carolinas) is closer to the coast than the image below.

The difference may only be about 100 miles or so, but that will make all the difference when it comes to where Sandy, or what it will be at that point, makes landfall.

I'll have another update early this afternoon with model information from this mornings run.

-Jon

Here comes Sandy

I'll be updating this as much as possible today and through the weekend.  Keep checking back here often.  To start off the morning, here it the forecast track that the National Hurricane Center has for Sandy.  In general, I'm in agreement with this path, though my gut tells me that landfall will be a bit farther north than is depicted in the picture below.
























More to come...

-Jon

Re-breaking the ice

I'm going to start back up gently, though with a rather important weather topic.

Satellites, in particular, a failing satellite that services over half the population of the United States.

The problem started in early September.  A weather satellite called GOES 13(GOES = Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GOES) began having problems.  A wavy pattern developed in some the images it was sending to earth.  The problem continued to become more and more noticeable at time went on.

This particular satellite covers much of the Atlantic Ocean and the Eastern 2/3rds of the United States.  This of course is responsible for covering tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico as well as the majority of the United States populace.  Basically, it's pretty important to a lot of people and meteorologists.

Once the problems become very noticeable, engineers began to investigate, remotely of course.  They realized that nothing could be done while the satellite was active, so they decided to take it offline for a period of time.  Well, this was done Saturday, 9/22.  What they found was not good and it has not been back online since.  They have scrambled around and have begun sending lower resolution imagery from other satellites.  They fear that GOES 13 problems could be unrepairable and may need to be replaced.

So what does this mean?  One of the big concerns is the impact it will have on forecast data.  Currently, several of the guidance models that help meteorologists forecast the weather use satellite data to initialize their model runs.  Right now, that satellite data is grainy and a much lower resolution.  In general, until something is fixed, forecast quality could be degraded.  Something to keep in mind when watching or hearing the weather forecast.

If you are interested, go here for a bit more information from someone who is closer to the situation than I am:  http://yourweatherblog.com/?p=10749&goback=%2Egde_70721_member_168311257

Next blog will be about the long range forecast for the United States for the next 3 to 4 months.

Thanks for reading and welcome back!

-Jon K.

No major changes to my forecast

No need to change my forecast totals much.  Not to brag or anything, but just about every other weather outlet has had to up their totals since yesterday.  I know I wasn't overly confident with the models, but relying on the models too much can burn you as a meteorologist.  What I will do this morning is try to narrow down exactly what areas will see how much snow with a bit more precision.  I broad brushed areas yesterday, I'll refine it this morning.  See image below of projected storm total through Thursday night:

The main contributor to snow totals will be overall duration of the event.  Locations in Southern NH and Northern MA will have snowfalling for over 24 hours.  It'll take a little while for the snow to start accumulating due to the ground not being completely frozen.  Once it does start sticking, it'll will start to pile up quickly, especially after midnight tonight.

More later, if necessary.

-Jon K.

Here it comes?

Still plenty of uncertainty with the storm headed our way for tomorrow and Thursday.  Computer guidance models are still showing a wide variety of solutions and the reputation this winter has lends itself to significant doubt.

Today:  Plenty of sunshine, highs in the mid to upper 40s south, upper 30s to near 40 north.

Tonight:  Becoming partly cloudy, lows in the low to mid 20s south, teens north.

Tomorrow:  Clouds increase, rain/snow mix and snow develops around midday and continues through the afternoon.  Most areas across New England will start out as snow.  Southwestern areas will begin changing over to a mix or rain later in the afternoon.  That rain/snow line will gradually shift north and east making it as far north as Route 2 overnight on Wednesday night.  I've included a movie below.  Accumulations will be limited due to a warmer environment during the day, but 3-5 inches is highly likely over the higher terrain in MA, CT and Northern RI.  1-3" is likely north of Rt. 2 north to around Concord.  Further north won't get into the snow until Wednesday night.  Highs in the low to mid 30s south, near 30 north.

Tomorrow night:  Rain/snow continues, heavy at times in Southern and Central NH.  Rain/snow line hovering around the Rt. 2 area.  Accumulations of 3-5" in Southern NH, 4-6" in Central NH, 1-2 in Northern NH.  Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s south, 20s north.

Thursday:  Rain and snow continues, rain south, snow north.  Dividing line will continue to hover around Rt. 2 and then will shift south and east throughout the day, eventually pushing through Boston by mid-afternoon.  Additional accumulations expected, 3-6" in Northern and Central NH(including the Keene/Jaffery areas), 4-7" for Southern New Hampshire into Central MA, and 2-4" across Eastern MA.  Highs in the low 30s south, near 30 north.

Discussion:

This storm has the potential to be a mess or a miss.  I'm very hesitant to jump on board with the numbers I've posted above and I think I might regret it.  The way I'm looking at it right now is that it's still winter and eventually something has to give.  The storm that is coming for tomorrow and Thursday is eerily similar to the previous 2 storms we've seen except for 2 things:  Strength and cold air to the north.  This storm will be much, much stronger than the previous two and there is going to be a large pool of cold/dry air that will get trapped across much of New England which will enhance snow accumulation and keep things colder thanks to evaporational cooling.

All that being said, the track of this system still worries me.  One of the latest model runs shifts the track a little further south.  However, this is the only model currently doing that, so it's an outlier.  I attempted to factor some of that into the accumulation numbers above.  I still leaning toward a worst case scenario, despite my worries.

Here is the movie I promised:

Here is a map of projected snow totals, closely matches my numbers above:

All images come from WSI software using the WSI created RPM model.

The good news is that temperatures will shoot back up above normal late in the weekend and for early next week.  Any snow we get will likely be gone rather quickly.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.



Unsettled later this week

The forecast models have been hinting at a big storm arriving in New England later this week.  Just what type of storm we get remains a bit of a mystery.

Rest of today:  Increasing clouds, highs in the upper 40s to near 50 south, 40s north.

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy, chance of a few snow showers and flurries north, spot accumulations of less than 2 inches, lows in the low 30s south, 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Becoming mostly sunny, highs in the mid to upper 40s south, upper 30s north.

Tomorrow night:  Increasing clouds, lows in the teens north, 20s south.

Wednesday:  Cloudy, rain/snow mix developing throughout the day.  Biggest question is where the storm track ends up, this will greatly affect precipitation type for many areas.  Confident it will be cold enough for snow north of Concord, NH.  A mix of some kind between Concord and I-495 and likely all rain inside I-495 and south of I-90.  Highs in the mid and upper 30s south, around 30 north.

Discussion:

A weak, fast moving low pressure system is responsible for the clouds we are seeing outside currently.  It will also bring some snow showers to the region tonight, especially across northern areas.  Not expecting much of any widespread accumulation.

We should turn our attention to the storm that is set to arrive the middle of the week and continue into Thursday.  This looks like a two stage event.  The first part arriving during the day on Wednesday and then another blast coming on Thursday.  Much remains to be determined where the centers of each disturbance will pass.  Currently I expect the first one to pass to the south, mainly affecting extreme Southern New England with a mix of rain and snow.  This disturbance will have the most amount of moisture associated with it.  The second phase will arrive on Thursday.  This piece of energy will be situated in a colder environment and should be able to produce some accumulating snow.  The main questions with this second wave are; how much moisture will be available and will the air be cold enough to support significant accumulations?

My current thinking for the answers to both of those questions are no, especially for Southern New England.  Central New England will likely have limited accumulations at best.  Northern areas will likely benefit the most from the second phase to this storm as up slope flow and colder air will produce a good amount of snow in the mountains.

I'll have more tomorrow.

-Jon K.

Snow north, rain south

For all you NH teachers south of Manchester, sorry to say that you are going to have to go to work tomorrow.

Rest of today:  Showers tapering off, otherwise mainly cloudy, highs near 50 south, 40s north.

Tonight:  Cloudy with rain and snow developing late.  Inside of 495 will be nearly all rain, between 495 and Manchester, NH, a mix of rain and snow, north of Manchester will see all snow.  Lows in the low to mid 30s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.

Tomorrow:  Periods of rain south, rain/snow mix in Northern MA and Southern New England and all snow north of Manchester, highs steady in the low to mid 30s south, upper 20s north.

Tomorrow night:  Rain and snow comes to end aside for some localized snow showers in the mountains of NH.  Total accumulations of around an inch in Southern NH, 2-5 between Manchester and Concord and then 5-9 inches north of Concord, highest amounts at higher elevations.

Saturday:  Partly sunny, breezy,  a few snow showers in the mountains, highs near 40 south, 30s north.

Discussion:

A low pressure system is quickly organizing across the Central United States today.  This will race eastward toward New England tonight.  It will tap into a decent amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and a limited amount of cold air in Canada to produce a wintry mix for New England tonight and tomorrow.

We had a few showers pushed through today and now we wait for the main action to arrive tonight.  I expect the precipitation to hold off until the early morning hours on Friday.  Most areas will be in the snow, rain/snow mix, or rain by 7 AM.  Temperatures will pretty much remain steady from the morning lows, maybe bumping up a few degrees here or there.  Rain and snow will continue off and on throughout the day.  Not expecting much of any accumulation south of Manchester, NH as the precipitation will be light and temperatures will generally be above freezing causing mixing with rain.  The places will see the highest snow totals from this event will be northern areas and locations above 1000 feet in elevation.  So this will mainly be a skiers delight and take a bit of strain off of snow making for the ski resorts for a couple of days.

I expect some snow showers to continue in the mountains on Saturday, adding another inch or two in spots.  In general, conditions will dry up quickly else where thanks to a strong West-Northwest wind ushering in cold, dry air from Canada.  The chill won't last long as temperatures will be back up above normal early next week.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Some rain on the way

Looks like we are entering into a bit of a stormier pattern over the next 7-10 days.

Rest of today:  Mainly sunny with a few more clouds pushing into toward evening, highs 40s south, upper 30s to near 40 north.

Tonight:  Becoming cloudy, a few rain or snow showers possible, snow showers will be restricted to higher elevations and northern areas of New England.  Lows in the 30s south, upper 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Any showers end in the morning, otherwise mostly cloudy.  Mild.  Highs in the mid and upper 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.

Tomorrow night:  Clouds, maybe a few showers, some snow at higher elevations, lows in the 30s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.

Thursday:  Limited sun, slight chance of a passing shower, still mild, highs in the low to mid 50s south, upper 40s north.

Discussion:

A series of quick moving, weak disturbances will pass through the region over the next couple of days.  The strongest of the disturbances will arrive late Friday/early Saturday, providing us with the highest chance for precipitation.

Clouds are starting to stream in from the west today and will continue tonight.  A few stray rain and snow showers are expected overnight, but amounts will be very light.  I'm not expecting any more than a light coating in spots, mainly at higher elevations.  The precipitation should be off to the east by sunrise on Wednesday, making for a dry commute.  The next round of precipitation arrives on Wednesday night.  This event should be similar to what will happen overnight tonight.  Very little precipitation, with some mixing at higher elevation and limited accumulation.

Conditions will dry out for the most part on Thursday, aside from a spot rain shower.  The strongest of the disturbances will push in on Friday.  The timing of this remains a bit of a mystery at this point.  A few models bring it in during the day, at varying times.  Another model holds the rain off until Friday night/Saturday morning.  I'm leaning toward the slower arrival currently.  The placement of the rain is also variable between the forecast models.  All the models have shifted the precipitation more north now, so it's looking less likely that the bulk of the rain will pass south of the region as I mentioned yesterday.

Looking further out, it appears that the storm track is shifting a bit further north.  However, temperatures are expected to remain above normal.  That being the case, we are likely to have more rain than snow with any passing storms.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

More mildness on the way

The mild winter continues across New England this week, but there is some precipitation inbound.

Rest of today:  Mainly sunny and cool, highs in the upper 30s to near 40 south, 30s north.

Tonight:  Clear, cold, lows in the teens and 20s south, single digits north.

Tuesday:  Mostly sunny, some clouds move in late, highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s south, mid 30s north.

Tuesday night:  Becoming cloudy, slight chance of a passing rain or snow shower, lows 35-40 south, lows 30s north.

Wednesday:  Mostly cloudy, outside chance of a few flurries/sprinkles, highs near 50 south, low to mid 40s north.

Discussion:

We'll have two passes at storms this coming week, both of the warm variety.  Until then however, conditions will be pleasant but cool.

The first storm will be rather weak and disorganized.  It will pass through the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  I'm not expecting much in the way of precipitation from this one and if any wintry precipitation falls, it likely won't accumulate to much more than a coating.  Most areas will have rain if they see anything at all.  The bulk of this activity will be out of the region by Wednesday afternoon, but the clouds will hang around.

A more organized and potent system arrives Thursday night.  Even though it will be stronger, I don't expect much wet weather out of it.  The majority of the precipitation association with this system should pass south of New England.  Our best shot of rain will come when the front passes through late on Friday.  Depending on how saturated the lower levels of the atmosphere become, a thunderstorm can't be ruled out as the front passes.  There will be quite a temperature difference and wind shift across this front which will provide enough instability for isolated convection.  More on this as the week progresses.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Quick hitting snow storm

As you've probably heard from other sources, there is a snow storm that will impact New England this weekend.

Tonight:  Increasing clouds, lows in the low to mid 30s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.

Tomorrow:  Snow develops around sunrise from southwest to northeast, getting heavier around midday and continuing into the early afternoon.  Highs in the low to mid 30s south, near 30 north.  Accumlation map below.

Tomorrow night:  Snow ending in the evening with some clearing overnight, breezy, lows in the teens and low 20s south, single digits north.

Sunday:  Mostly sunny, cold and windy, temperatures will remain steady from the morning lows or cooling off a bit during the day.

Monday:  Lots of sun, still cold, highs in the teens and 20s.

Discussion:

This storm somewhat surprised a lot of meteorologists.  Forecast models really didn't start picking up on this system until Thursday morning.  On Wednesday, it just looked like we'd see a cold front passage with a few snow squalls.  Now, however, we have a coastal system that will race offshore in the Mid-Atlantic and rapidly develop into a strong storm by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes.  Fortunately it will be moving quickly enough when it hits New England that it will not cause major issues.

Look for the snow to develop around sunrise on Saturday morning, gradually picking up in intensity through the morning.  I think the heaviest of the snow will fall between Providence, RI and Plymouth, MA.  This where the most intense band will set up.  Temperatures will be a bit warmer there, so this will keep snow amounts a bit lower because of the snow to liquid ratio will be closer to 5-1.  I expect the snow to linger for a while which will put down some additional accumulation in eastern locations.  The low pressure system will likely stall as it really blows up in the Gulf of Maine.  This will keep the snow in Eastern MA and Southeastern NH a bit longer than some initially expected and will likely bump totals up a bit.

This image from WSI.

Snow will taper off west to east during the late afternoon, finally exiting by Midnight Sunday morning.  After that we just have to deal with falling temperatures and some gusty winds.  The cold will likely only hang around through Monday before temperatures jump up again to back above normal levels.

All in all, this storm won't be overly impactful.  It's hitting on a Saturday and will generally deposit less than 5" for most locations.  If there is going to be spots that break the 6" mark in Southern New England, it will likely happen near Plymouth, MA or in Southeastern NH, even then I don't expect anyone in these areas to get more than 8 inches.  There will be some impressive totals coming out Eastern Maine by the time this storm is out to sea.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon

Where's Winter?

The title of this blog is an excellent question.  So where is winter happening this year?  So far, there hasn't been much winter in North America.  There have been a few storms that have impacted the Western U.S., but other than that, it's been quiet.

Elsewhere around the world, the story is different.  Rome, Italy had snow last week for the first time in 26 years.  England has seen quite a bit of snow which is abnormal.  Northern Asia(Russia, Ukraine, etc) and Alaska have been dealing with unbelievably cold temperatures.  Across these areas, temperatures have bottomed out to temperatures lower than -70 degrees Farenheit!  Alaska also has experienced one of the worst snow storms in recorded history for the state.

So, while there has been above normal temperatures across much of the United States this winter.  Don't forget that there are other places on Earth and they are on the opposite side of the situation.  You may be thinking this is all "Global Warming," but there is more to it than just what happens in the United States. 

Looking locally; there isn't much to expect across New England for this week.  Temperatures will continue to run above normal and we will also see lots of sunshine thanks to a strong area of high pressure that is settling in across the region.

Thanks for reading!  Any questions, please ask.

-Jon K.

Storms on the horizon?

Our weather could be taking are more "wintry" turn in the near future.  Until then however, we will continue with the warmer temperatures and lack of significant snowfall.

Tonight:  Partly cloudy, mild.  Lows in the 30s to near 40s south, upper 20s to low 30s north.

Tomorrow:  Occasional sun early then chance of showers in the afternoon, mild.  Highs in the upper 40s and low 50s south, 40s north.

Tomorrow night:  Mainly cloudy, breezy, lows near 30 south, 20s north.

Thursday:  Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, highs 35-40 south, near 30 north.

Friday:  Partly sunny, highs in the 30s south, 20s north.

Discussion:

We had a warm front pass through New England this morning.  That was responsible for the snow showers and flurries that dropped a coating to an inch of snow in some spots.  This warm front is ushering in some warmer air that will arrive in full force tomorrow.  Sadly the warm air will not hang around for more than 12 hours or so before temperatures come back down to a more normal level.

Over the next couple of days, we really don't have too much to worry about.  There is still the slightest chance of some snow showers overnight Thursday into Friday morning.  Currently it looks like this system will slide just to the south of New England, not causing any problems.

The larger concern is the storm that could potentially hit New England on Sunday night.  It is still early, but conditions look to be setting up nicely for an impactful storm in the Northeast.  Much could change over the coming days, but it is winter and this is New England.  We are bound to get at least one snowstorm in the coming weeks.

Thanks for reading and tell your friends!

-Jon K.

Mild(er) for now

We had a beautiful day across New England today and this will into tomorrow and the first half of Thursday.

Tonight:  Mainly clear, areas of black ice, lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Tomorrow:  Partly sunny, highs in the upper 30s to near 40 south, upper 20s to near 30 north.

Tomorrow night:  Partly cloudy, more clouds move in late, lows in the upper 20s to near 30 south, teens and lower 20s north.

Thursday:  Clouds increasing, wintry mix develops late, highs in the low to mid 30s south, upper 20s north.

Friday:  Rain likely, especially in the morning, rain/snow mix far north.  Highs in the mid and upper 30s south, low to mid 30s north.

Our next troublemaker of a storm system will arrive on Thursday night.  Temperatures will be cool enough for most areas to start out with some snow or sleet, followed by a changeover to freezing rain for a period of time overnight Thursday night.  A decent surge of warmer air should win out Friday morning and temperatures will climb up above freezing for much of New England, save for far northern sections.  Not expecting much in the way of accumulation from the wintry precipitation, but a slushy inch or so is possible south with 2-4 inches possible north.

More to come...thanks for reading

-Jon K.

I'm sort of back!

We have some heavy rain headed our direction for this afternoon and tonight.  Here are a few images that I was able to grab.  I don't have a lot of time, so I'm telling my story in pictures.  After the rain event tonight, temperatures will remain above normal through much of the rest of the week with another chance of unsettled weather coming late in the week and into the weekend.

Images came from TruVu Max.

Hopefully I'll be able to continue my come back.  Stay tuned!

-Jon K