No major changes to my forecast

No need to change my forecast totals much.  Not to brag or anything, but just about every other weather outlet has had to up their totals since yesterday.  I know I wasn't overly confident with the models, but relying on the models too much can burn you as a meteorologist.  What I will do this morning is try to narrow down exactly what areas will see how much snow with a bit more precision.  I broad brushed areas yesterday, I'll refine it this morning.  See image below of projected storm total through Thursday night:

The main contributor to snow totals will be overall duration of the event.  Locations in Southern NH and Northern MA will have snowfalling for over 24 hours.  It'll take a little while for the snow to start accumulating due to the ground not being completely frozen.  Once it does start sticking, it'll will start to pile up quickly, especially after midnight tonight.

More later, if necessary.

-Jon K.

Here it comes?

Still plenty of uncertainty with the storm headed our way for tomorrow and Thursday.  Computer guidance models are still showing a wide variety of solutions and the reputation this winter has lends itself to significant doubt.

Today:  Plenty of sunshine, highs in the mid to upper 40s south, upper 30s to near 40 north.

Tonight:  Becoming partly cloudy, lows in the low to mid 20s south, teens north.

Tomorrow:  Clouds increase, rain/snow mix and snow develops around midday and continues through the afternoon.  Most areas across New England will start out as snow.  Southwestern areas will begin changing over to a mix or rain later in the afternoon.  That rain/snow line will gradually shift north and east making it as far north as Route 2 overnight on Wednesday night.  I've included a movie below.  Accumulations will be limited due to a warmer environment during the day, but 3-5 inches is highly likely over the higher terrain in MA, CT and Northern RI.  1-3" is likely north of Rt. 2 north to around Concord.  Further north won't get into the snow until Wednesday night.  Highs in the low to mid 30s south, near 30 north.

Tomorrow night:  Rain/snow continues, heavy at times in Southern and Central NH.  Rain/snow line hovering around the Rt. 2 area.  Accumulations of 3-5" in Southern NH, 4-6" in Central NH, 1-2 in Northern NH.  Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s south, 20s north.

Thursday:  Rain and snow continues, rain south, snow north.  Dividing line will continue to hover around Rt. 2 and then will shift south and east throughout the day, eventually pushing through Boston by mid-afternoon.  Additional accumulations expected, 3-6" in Northern and Central NH(including the Keene/Jaffery areas), 4-7" for Southern New Hampshire into Central MA, and 2-4" across Eastern MA.  Highs in the low 30s south, near 30 north.

Discussion:

This storm has the potential to be a mess or a miss.  I'm very hesitant to jump on board with the numbers I've posted above and I think I might regret it.  The way I'm looking at it right now is that it's still winter and eventually something has to give.  The storm that is coming for tomorrow and Thursday is eerily similar to the previous 2 storms we've seen except for 2 things:  Strength and cold air to the north.  This storm will be much, much stronger than the previous two and there is going to be a large pool of cold/dry air that will get trapped across much of New England which will enhance snow accumulation and keep things colder thanks to evaporational cooling.

All that being said, the track of this system still worries me.  One of the latest model runs shifts the track a little further south.  However, this is the only model currently doing that, so it's an outlier.  I attempted to factor some of that into the accumulation numbers above.  I still leaning toward a worst case scenario, despite my worries.

Here is the movie I promised:

Here is a map of projected snow totals, closely matches my numbers above:

All images come from WSI software using the WSI created RPM model.

The good news is that temperatures will shoot back up above normal late in the weekend and for early next week.  Any snow we get will likely be gone rather quickly.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.



Unsettled later this week

The forecast models have been hinting at a big storm arriving in New England later this week.  Just what type of storm we get remains a bit of a mystery.

Rest of today:  Increasing clouds, highs in the upper 40s to near 50 south, 40s north.

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy, chance of a few snow showers and flurries north, spot accumulations of less than 2 inches, lows in the low 30s south, 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Becoming mostly sunny, highs in the mid to upper 40s south, upper 30s north.

Tomorrow night:  Increasing clouds, lows in the teens north, 20s south.

Wednesday:  Cloudy, rain/snow mix developing throughout the day.  Biggest question is where the storm track ends up, this will greatly affect precipitation type for many areas.  Confident it will be cold enough for snow north of Concord, NH.  A mix of some kind between Concord and I-495 and likely all rain inside I-495 and south of I-90.  Highs in the mid and upper 30s south, around 30 north.

Discussion:

A weak, fast moving low pressure system is responsible for the clouds we are seeing outside currently.  It will also bring some snow showers to the region tonight, especially across northern areas.  Not expecting much of any widespread accumulation.

We should turn our attention to the storm that is set to arrive the middle of the week and continue into Thursday.  This looks like a two stage event.  The first part arriving during the day on Wednesday and then another blast coming on Thursday.  Much remains to be determined where the centers of each disturbance will pass.  Currently I expect the first one to pass to the south, mainly affecting extreme Southern New England with a mix of rain and snow.  This disturbance will have the most amount of moisture associated with it.  The second phase will arrive on Thursday.  This piece of energy will be situated in a colder environment and should be able to produce some accumulating snow.  The main questions with this second wave are; how much moisture will be available and will the air be cold enough to support significant accumulations?

My current thinking for the answers to both of those questions are no, especially for Southern New England.  Central New England will likely have limited accumulations at best.  Northern areas will likely benefit the most from the second phase to this storm as up slope flow and colder air will produce a good amount of snow in the mountains.

I'll have more tomorrow.

-Jon K.

Snow north, rain south

For all you NH teachers south of Manchester, sorry to say that you are going to have to go to work tomorrow.

Rest of today:  Showers tapering off, otherwise mainly cloudy, highs near 50 south, 40s north.

Tonight:  Cloudy with rain and snow developing late.  Inside of 495 will be nearly all rain, between 495 and Manchester, NH, a mix of rain and snow, north of Manchester will see all snow.  Lows in the low to mid 30s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.

Tomorrow:  Periods of rain south, rain/snow mix in Northern MA and Southern New England and all snow north of Manchester, highs steady in the low to mid 30s south, upper 20s north.

Tomorrow night:  Rain and snow comes to end aside for some localized snow showers in the mountains of NH.  Total accumulations of around an inch in Southern NH, 2-5 between Manchester and Concord and then 5-9 inches north of Concord, highest amounts at higher elevations.

Saturday:  Partly sunny, breezy,  a few snow showers in the mountains, highs near 40 south, 30s north.

Discussion:

A low pressure system is quickly organizing across the Central United States today.  This will race eastward toward New England tonight.  It will tap into a decent amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and a limited amount of cold air in Canada to produce a wintry mix for New England tonight and tomorrow.

We had a few showers pushed through today and now we wait for the main action to arrive tonight.  I expect the precipitation to hold off until the early morning hours on Friday.  Most areas will be in the snow, rain/snow mix, or rain by 7 AM.  Temperatures will pretty much remain steady from the morning lows, maybe bumping up a few degrees here or there.  Rain and snow will continue off and on throughout the day.  Not expecting much of any accumulation south of Manchester, NH as the precipitation will be light and temperatures will generally be above freezing causing mixing with rain.  The places will see the highest snow totals from this event will be northern areas and locations above 1000 feet in elevation.  So this will mainly be a skiers delight and take a bit of strain off of snow making for the ski resorts for a couple of days.

I expect some snow showers to continue in the mountains on Saturday, adding another inch or two in spots.  In general, conditions will dry up quickly else where thanks to a strong West-Northwest wind ushering in cold, dry air from Canada.  The chill won't last long as temperatures will be back up above normal early next week.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Some rain on the way

Looks like we are entering into a bit of a stormier pattern over the next 7-10 days.

Rest of today:  Mainly sunny with a few more clouds pushing into toward evening, highs 40s south, upper 30s to near 40 north.

Tonight:  Becoming cloudy, a few rain or snow showers possible, snow showers will be restricted to higher elevations and northern areas of New England.  Lows in the 30s south, upper 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Any showers end in the morning, otherwise mostly cloudy.  Mild.  Highs in the mid and upper 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.

Tomorrow night:  Clouds, maybe a few showers, some snow at higher elevations, lows in the 30s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.

Thursday:  Limited sun, slight chance of a passing shower, still mild, highs in the low to mid 50s south, upper 40s north.

Discussion:

A series of quick moving, weak disturbances will pass through the region over the next couple of days.  The strongest of the disturbances will arrive late Friday/early Saturday, providing us with the highest chance for precipitation.

Clouds are starting to stream in from the west today and will continue tonight.  A few stray rain and snow showers are expected overnight, but amounts will be very light.  I'm not expecting any more than a light coating in spots, mainly at higher elevations.  The precipitation should be off to the east by sunrise on Wednesday, making for a dry commute.  The next round of precipitation arrives on Wednesday night.  This event should be similar to what will happen overnight tonight.  Very little precipitation, with some mixing at higher elevation and limited accumulation.

Conditions will dry out for the most part on Thursday, aside from a spot rain shower.  The strongest of the disturbances will push in on Friday.  The timing of this remains a bit of a mystery at this point.  A few models bring it in during the day, at varying times.  Another model holds the rain off until Friday night/Saturday morning.  I'm leaning toward the slower arrival currently.  The placement of the rain is also variable between the forecast models.  All the models have shifted the precipitation more north now, so it's looking less likely that the bulk of the rain will pass south of the region as I mentioned yesterday.

Looking further out, it appears that the storm track is shifting a bit further north.  However, temperatures are expected to remain above normal.  That being the case, we are likely to have more rain than snow with any passing storms.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

More mildness on the way

The mild winter continues across New England this week, but there is some precipitation inbound.

Rest of today:  Mainly sunny and cool, highs in the upper 30s to near 40 south, 30s north.

Tonight:  Clear, cold, lows in the teens and 20s south, single digits north.

Tuesday:  Mostly sunny, some clouds move in late, highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s south, mid 30s north.

Tuesday night:  Becoming cloudy, slight chance of a passing rain or snow shower, lows 35-40 south, lows 30s north.

Wednesday:  Mostly cloudy, outside chance of a few flurries/sprinkles, highs near 50 south, low to mid 40s north.

Discussion:

We'll have two passes at storms this coming week, both of the warm variety.  Until then however, conditions will be pleasant but cool.

The first storm will be rather weak and disorganized.  It will pass through the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  I'm not expecting much in the way of precipitation from this one and if any wintry precipitation falls, it likely won't accumulate to much more than a coating.  Most areas will have rain if they see anything at all.  The bulk of this activity will be out of the region by Wednesday afternoon, but the clouds will hang around.

A more organized and potent system arrives Thursday night.  Even though it will be stronger, I don't expect much wet weather out of it.  The majority of the precipitation association with this system should pass south of New England.  Our best shot of rain will come when the front passes through late on Friday.  Depending on how saturated the lower levels of the atmosphere become, a thunderstorm can't be ruled out as the front passes.  There will be quite a temperature difference and wind shift across this front which will provide enough instability for isolated convection.  More on this as the week progresses.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Quick hitting snow storm

As you've probably heard from other sources, there is a snow storm that will impact New England this weekend.

Tonight:  Increasing clouds, lows in the low to mid 30s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.

Tomorrow:  Snow develops around sunrise from southwest to northeast, getting heavier around midday and continuing into the early afternoon.  Highs in the low to mid 30s south, near 30 north.  Accumlation map below.

Tomorrow night:  Snow ending in the evening with some clearing overnight, breezy, lows in the teens and low 20s south, single digits north.

Sunday:  Mostly sunny, cold and windy, temperatures will remain steady from the morning lows or cooling off a bit during the day.

Monday:  Lots of sun, still cold, highs in the teens and 20s.

Discussion:

This storm somewhat surprised a lot of meteorologists.  Forecast models really didn't start picking up on this system until Thursday morning.  On Wednesday, it just looked like we'd see a cold front passage with a few snow squalls.  Now, however, we have a coastal system that will race offshore in the Mid-Atlantic and rapidly develop into a strong storm by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes.  Fortunately it will be moving quickly enough when it hits New England that it will not cause major issues.

Look for the snow to develop around sunrise on Saturday morning, gradually picking up in intensity through the morning.  I think the heaviest of the snow will fall between Providence, RI and Plymouth, MA.  This where the most intense band will set up.  Temperatures will be a bit warmer there, so this will keep snow amounts a bit lower because of the snow to liquid ratio will be closer to 5-1.  I expect the snow to linger for a while which will put down some additional accumulation in eastern locations.  The low pressure system will likely stall as it really blows up in the Gulf of Maine.  This will keep the snow in Eastern MA and Southeastern NH a bit longer than some initially expected and will likely bump totals up a bit.

This image from WSI.

Snow will taper off west to east during the late afternoon, finally exiting by Midnight Sunday morning.  After that we just have to deal with falling temperatures and some gusty winds.  The cold will likely only hang around through Monday before temperatures jump up again to back above normal levels.

All in all, this storm won't be overly impactful.  It's hitting on a Saturday and will generally deposit less than 5" for most locations.  If there is going to be spots that break the 6" mark in Southern New England, it will likely happen near Plymouth, MA or in Southeastern NH, even then I don't expect anyone in these areas to get more than 8 inches.  There will be some impressive totals coming out Eastern Maine by the time this storm is out to sea.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon

Where's Winter?

The title of this blog is an excellent question.  So where is winter happening this year?  So far, there hasn't been much winter in North America.  There have been a few storms that have impacted the Western U.S., but other than that, it's been quiet.

Elsewhere around the world, the story is different.  Rome, Italy had snow last week for the first time in 26 years.  England has seen quite a bit of snow which is abnormal.  Northern Asia(Russia, Ukraine, etc) and Alaska have been dealing with unbelievably cold temperatures.  Across these areas, temperatures have bottomed out to temperatures lower than -70 degrees Farenheit!  Alaska also has experienced one of the worst snow storms in recorded history for the state.

So, while there has been above normal temperatures across much of the United States this winter.  Don't forget that there are other places on Earth and they are on the opposite side of the situation.  You may be thinking this is all "Global Warming," but there is more to it than just what happens in the United States. 

Looking locally; there isn't much to expect across New England for this week.  Temperatures will continue to run above normal and we will also see lots of sunshine thanks to a strong area of high pressure that is settling in across the region.

Thanks for reading!  Any questions, please ask.

-Jon K.