Unsettled later this week

The forecast models have been hinting at a big storm arriving in New England later this week.  Just what type of storm we get remains a bit of a mystery.

Rest of today:  Increasing clouds, highs in the upper 40s to near 50 south, 40s north.

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy, chance of a few snow showers and flurries north, spot accumulations of less than 2 inches, lows in the low 30s south, 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Becoming mostly sunny, highs in the mid to upper 40s south, upper 30s north.

Tomorrow night:  Increasing clouds, lows in the teens north, 20s south.

Wednesday:  Cloudy, rain/snow mix developing throughout the day.  Biggest question is where the storm track ends up, this will greatly affect precipitation type for many areas.  Confident it will be cold enough for snow north of Concord, NH.  A mix of some kind between Concord and I-495 and likely all rain inside I-495 and south of I-90.  Highs in the mid and upper 30s south, around 30 north.

Discussion:

A weak, fast moving low pressure system is responsible for the clouds we are seeing outside currently.  It will also bring some snow showers to the region tonight, especially across northern areas.  Not expecting much of any widespread accumulation.

We should turn our attention to the storm that is set to arrive the middle of the week and continue into Thursday.  This looks like a two stage event.  The first part arriving during the day on Wednesday and then another blast coming on Thursday.  Much remains to be determined where the centers of each disturbance will pass.  Currently I expect the first one to pass to the south, mainly affecting extreme Southern New England with a mix of rain and snow.  This disturbance will have the most amount of moisture associated with it.  The second phase will arrive on Thursday.  This piece of energy will be situated in a colder environment and should be able to produce some accumulating snow.  The main questions with this second wave are; how much moisture will be available and will the air be cold enough to support significant accumulations?

My current thinking for the answers to both of those questions are no, especially for Southern New England.  Central New England will likely have limited accumulations at best.  Northern areas will likely benefit the most from the second phase to this storm as up slope flow and colder air will produce a good amount of snow in the mountains.

I'll have more tomorrow.

-Jon K.