Here it comes?

Still plenty of uncertainty with the storm headed our way for tomorrow and Thursday.  Computer guidance models are still showing a wide variety of solutions and the reputation this winter has lends itself to significant doubt.

Today:  Plenty of sunshine, highs in the mid to upper 40s south, upper 30s to near 40 north.

Tonight:  Becoming partly cloudy, lows in the low to mid 20s south, teens north.

Tomorrow:  Clouds increase, rain/snow mix and snow develops around midday and continues through the afternoon.  Most areas across New England will start out as snow.  Southwestern areas will begin changing over to a mix or rain later in the afternoon.  That rain/snow line will gradually shift north and east making it as far north as Route 2 overnight on Wednesday night.  I've included a movie below.  Accumulations will be limited due to a warmer environment during the day, but 3-5 inches is highly likely over the higher terrain in MA, CT and Northern RI.  1-3" is likely north of Rt. 2 north to around Concord.  Further north won't get into the snow until Wednesday night.  Highs in the low to mid 30s south, near 30 north.

Tomorrow night:  Rain/snow continues, heavy at times in Southern and Central NH.  Rain/snow line hovering around the Rt. 2 area.  Accumulations of 3-5" in Southern NH, 4-6" in Central NH, 1-2 in Northern NH.  Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s south, 20s north.

Thursday:  Rain and snow continues, rain south, snow north.  Dividing line will continue to hover around Rt. 2 and then will shift south and east throughout the day, eventually pushing through Boston by mid-afternoon.  Additional accumulations expected, 3-6" in Northern and Central NH(including the Keene/Jaffery areas), 4-7" for Southern New Hampshire into Central MA, and 2-4" across Eastern MA.  Highs in the low 30s south, near 30 north.

Discussion:

This storm has the potential to be a mess or a miss.  I'm very hesitant to jump on board with the numbers I've posted above and I think I might regret it.  The way I'm looking at it right now is that it's still winter and eventually something has to give.  The storm that is coming for tomorrow and Thursday is eerily similar to the previous 2 storms we've seen except for 2 things:  Strength and cold air to the north.  This storm will be much, much stronger than the previous two and there is going to be a large pool of cold/dry air that will get trapped across much of New England which will enhance snow accumulation and keep things colder thanks to evaporational cooling.

All that being said, the track of this system still worries me.  One of the latest model runs shifts the track a little further south.  However, this is the only model currently doing that, so it's an outlier.  I attempted to factor some of that into the accumulation numbers above.  I still leaning toward a worst case scenario, despite my worries.

Here is the movie I promised:

Here is a map of projected snow totals, closely matches my numbers above:

All images come from WSI software using the WSI created RPM model.

The good news is that temperatures will shoot back up above normal late in the weekend and for early next week.  Any snow we get will likely be gone rather quickly.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.