Friday, February 10, 2012

Quick hitting snow storm

As you've probably heard from other sources, there is a snow storm that will impact New England this weekend.

Tonight:  Increasing clouds, lows in the low to mid 30s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.

Tomorrow:  Snow develops around sunrise from southwest to northeast, getting heavier around midday and continuing into the early afternoon.  Highs in the low to mid 30s south, near 30 north.  Accumlation map below.

Tomorrow night:  Snow ending in the evening with some clearing overnight, breezy, lows in the teens and low 20s south, single digits north.

Sunday:  Mostly sunny, cold and windy, temperatures will remain steady from the morning lows or cooling off a bit during the day.

Monday:  Lots of sun, still cold, highs in the teens and 20s.

Discussion:

This storm somewhat surprised a lot of meteorologists.  Forecast models really didn't start picking up on this system until Thursday morning.  On Wednesday, it just looked like we'd see a cold front passage with a few snow squalls.  Now, however, we have a coastal system that will race offshore in the Mid-Atlantic and rapidly develop into a strong storm by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes.  Fortunately it will be moving quickly enough when it hits New England that it will not cause major issues.

Look for the snow to develop around sunrise on Saturday morning, gradually picking up in intensity through the morning.  I think the heaviest of the snow will fall between Providence, RI and Plymouth, MA.  This where the most intense band will set up.  Temperatures will be a bit warmer there, so this will keep snow amounts a bit lower because of the snow to liquid ratio will be closer to 5-1.  I expect the snow to linger for a while which will put down some additional accumulation in eastern locations.  The low pressure system will likely stall as it really blows up in the Gulf of Maine.  This will keep the snow in Eastern MA and Southeastern NH a bit longer than some initially expected and will likely bump totals up a bit.



This image from WSI.

Snow will taper off west to east during the late afternoon, finally exiting by Midnight Sunday morning.  After that we just have to deal with falling temperatures and some gusty winds.  The cold will likely only hang around through Monday before temperatures jump up again to back above normal levels.

All in all, this storm won't be overly impactful.  It's hitting on a Saturday and will generally deposit less than 5" for most locations.  If there is going to be spots that break the 6" mark in Southern New England, it will likely happen near Plymouth, MA or in Southeastern NH, even then I don't expect anyone in these areas to get more than 8 inches.  There will be some impressive totals coming out Eastern Maine by the time this storm is out to sea.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon

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