Sunday, October 28, 2012

Sunday AM Sandy update

I apologize for my lack of blog posts yesterday.  I had numerous chores to take care of around the house that was more important.

In the grand scheme of things, my outlook has not changed.  My forecast of a Central NJ landfall continues.  All the forecast models are trending toward this solution.  HOWEVER, this is not the only area that will be impacted.  The "zone" of impact is very, very large.  Tropical storm force winds will extend some 500 miles away from the center of the storm, particularly on the north and west side of the storm.  That means that from Northern NH and VT westward to Buffalo and Pittsburgh will experience winds and wind gusts over 35 mph.  This is going to lead to power outages and damage.  I believe the worst of the damage is going to be in Northern NJ, NYC area and Southern CT and RI.  Further inland the reports of damage will be a bit more widespread.  Here is a good depiction of the large area of impact Sandy will have, taken from The Weather Channel:
Overlay

As you can see that nearly the entire Northeastern United States along with a good portion of the Mid-Atlantic will feel the effects of the very large weather system.

Currently, the National Hurricane Center is still calling Sandy a hurricane, however, the tropical characteristics are all but gone.  It appears the reason they are continuing to give a name to Sandy and classify it as a "tropical" system to highlight the importance of the event.  They likely don't want to the public to disregard the impacts.

High winds are already lashing the North Carolina coast.  Conditions will continue to deteriorate further to the north on the Delmarva Peninsula and into NJ throughout the day today and tonight.  By tomorrow morning, there will be tropical storm force winds covering the NYC Metro area into Southern New England.  Through the day on Monday, the area of tropical storm force winds will spread north and westward encompassing nearly all of New England and much of NY and PA.

I stress that you need to pay close attention to local media outlets and obey any orders given by local authorities.  This could be a once in a lifetime storm and it is nothing to take lightly.  This is especially the case form Cape Cod, down the Eastern Seaboard to Cape Hatteras.  Please be safe.

I hope to have another update this afternoon.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon












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