Not too much to report on, at least in the form of changes. Models run are just starting to trickle and I'm too tired to stay up to wait for them to finish.
The National Hurricane Center has done something that I find rather curious. They have shifted their forecast a bit further to the south, despite all the forecast models showing a more northern solution in the latest model runs. Seems strange to me, but they are professionals and must see something that suggests this. The offical track from the Hurricane Center takes the center of the system up the Delaware River.
I'm still thinking that this system makes landfall in Central NJ, probably just north of Atlantic City. At this point, it will no longer be considered a hurricane. It will have lost all of it's tropical characteristics. HOWEVER; wind speeds will exceed hurricane force strength, especially wind gusts. This will particularly be the case on the northern side of the system.
So Northern NJ, NYC, Long Island, Cape Cod and the South Coast of New England will have some very strong winds from this system, despite the center staying south of these areas. Widespread damage and power outages are expected in this region, with power outages expected from Central NH westward to Buffalo, NY and southward into West Virginia.
Also, expect to see some heavy snow on the back side of the system, primarily in Eastern Ohio and especially in the hills of West Virginia. Up to a foot of snow isn't out of the question at higher elevations in WV.
That's going to do it for today. If anyone has any questions, let me know. More updates coming tomorrow between my own preparations for this storm.
-Jon
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