All the Friday morning model runs have shifted the track of Sandy further to the north. This is an interesting development, but not something that should be bought, hook, line and sinker. It's just one mathematical solution to a very complex storm.
Currently, Sandy is going through a transformation from a tropical system to a subtropical or extra tropical storm. Recent satellite images show almost no convection on the southern side of the storm. Full-fledged tropical systems almost always have a closed core of convection. This transition is happening as it interacts with a strong upper level low pressure system. As this happens, Sandy will weaken initially, which is already happening. However, once the transition to fully complete, Sandy will begin to strengthen again.
There are a lot of similarities with this situation and what happened during the "Perfect Storm" in 1991. They may even happen on the same exact day.
I stress that much can and probably will change over the next couple of days. However, if you have interests in the Northeast, from Delaware to Portland, ME, you need to start acting now. I believe that a landfall somewhere between Southern NJ and Montauk, NY is the most likely scenario.
The wind field for Sandy will be very large. Tropical Storm force winds will extend several hundred miles out away from the center of the storm and there will likely be hurricane force wind gusts on the east and northern side of the system. To the north of Sandy when she makes landfall will be an area of high pressure. The collision of Sandy into this high will help to increase wind speeds and this will happen on the north side of the storm's center.
That's enough gloom and doom for now. More to come....
-Jon
No comments:
Post a Comment