Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Some rain on the way

Looks like we are entering into a bit of a stormier pattern over the next 7-10 days.

Rest of today:  Mainly sunny with a few more clouds pushing into toward evening, highs 40s south, upper 30s to near 40 north.

Tonight:  Becoming cloudy, a few rain or snow showers possible, snow showers will be restricted to higher elevations and northern areas of New England.  Lows in the 30s south, upper 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Any showers end in the morning, otherwise mostly cloudy.  Mild.  Highs in the mid and upper 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.

Tomorrow night:  Clouds, maybe a few showers, some snow at higher elevations, lows in the 30s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.

Thursday:  Limited sun, slight chance of a passing shower, still mild, highs in the low to mid 50s south, upper 40s north.

Discussion:

A series of quick moving, weak disturbances will pass through the region over the next couple of days.  The strongest of the disturbances will arrive late Friday/early Saturday, providing us with the highest chance for precipitation.

Clouds are starting to stream in from the west today and will continue tonight.  A few stray rain and snow showers are expected overnight, but amounts will be very light.  I'm not expecting any more than a light coating in spots, mainly at higher elevations.  The precipitation should be off to the east by sunrise on Wednesday, making for a dry commute.  The next round of precipitation arrives on Wednesday night.  This event should be similar to what will happen overnight tonight.  Very little precipitation, with some mixing at higher elevation and limited accumulation.

Conditions will dry out for the most part on Thursday, aside from a spot rain shower.  The strongest of the disturbances will push in on Friday.  The timing of this remains a bit of a mystery at this point.  A few models bring it in during the day, at varying times.  Another model holds the rain off until Friday night/Saturday morning.  I'm leaning toward the slower arrival currently.  The placement of the rain is also variable between the forecast models.  All the models have shifted the precipitation more north now, so it's looking less likely that the bulk of the rain will pass south of the region as I mentioned yesterday.

Looking further out, it appears that the storm track is shifting a bit further north.  However, temperatures are expected to remain above normal.  That being the case, we are likely to have more rain than snow with any passing storms.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

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