Tricky forecast

The storm that currently is affecting parts of New England has been tricky to figure out as it has changed again, probably for the better.

Today:  Rain/snow showers possible, rain south, snow north.  Looks like any snow won't last long or be as heavy, 1-3 inches possible in far northern New England.  Highs near 40 south, mid 30s north.

Tonight:  Rain at times south, changing from snow to rain north.  Temperatures rising a few degrees overnight.

Tomorrow:  Periods of rain, maybe a few rumbles of thunder in the afternoon, highs in mid 50s south, upper 40s to near 50 north.

Tomorrow night:  Rain ends, maybe mixing with snow north, lows in the mid and upper 30s south, upper 20s to near 30 north.

Saturday:  Mostly cloudy, slight chance of a snow shower in the morning, then slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon.  Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s south, in the 40s north.

Discussion:
Looking at the radar this morning, you would think that it should be precipitating everywhere.  However, this is not the case as there is a lot of dry air aloft that is evaporating the precipitation before it reaches the ground.  Eventually the dry layer aloft will become moist, allowing that precipitation to reach the ground.  This will happen when the second wave of precipitation arrives late today and tonight.  By this time, all of southern New England will be warm enough to support rain.  The transition to all rain may hold off until around sunrise on Friday morning for Northern New England, particularly Northern New Hampshire and Maine.

I expect the rain to be more scattered and showery in nature tonight and tomorrow morning with steadier rain moving in on Friday afternoon as the cold front pushes through the region.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a few lightning strikes and hear a few rumbles of thunder in some of the heavier rain.  There are going to be a few spots that pick up over an inch of rain in a short period of time, but this looks pretty isolated.  The isolated nature of the heavier rain should reduce the flooding threat slightly.  However, all the rivers and streams of New England and still swollen, so any additional rain will only make matters worse.  So once again, be ready for some flooding late on Friday into Saturday.

Looking into this weekend, conditions should be generally dry, save for a few scattered showers on Saturday.  Temperatures will drop off late in the weekend as colder air moves in behind the storm system currently closing in on the region.  Don't worry though, the chill won't be frigid and won't last long.  Our winds will change around to a more southerly direction early next week and then the warm up will begin again.  By the end of next week I expect it to be very mild here in New England.

I'll update as necessary today, thanks for reading!

-Jon K.