Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Quick shot of winter then mild

It wouldn't be New England weather if we didn't jump from mild to snow to mild over 3 days.

Today:  Plenty of sunshine, highs near 50 south, upper 30s to mid 40s north.

Tonight:  Increasing clouds, slight chance of snow showers south toward dawn, 30 to 35 south, teens to mid 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Rain/snow/sleet mix through the morning, changing to rain early afternoon south, staying wintry mix north, highs in the low 40s south, 30s north.  Slushy accumulations possible.

Tomorrow night:  Any precipitation come to an end, decreasing clouds, lows mid 30s south, 20s north.

Thursday:  Lots of sunshine, mild.  Highs in the mid and upper 50s south, upper 40s to low 50s north.

Discussion: 
A quiet day today ahead of quick moving yet relatively intense low pressure system that will race through tomorrow.  Temperatures with plenty of sunshine will climb nicely to at or above normals for mid March.  As the low pressure system gets closer tonight, clouds will start to move in late today and tonight.  This will help keep surface temperatures up slightly, but still will be cold enough to allow for wintry precipitation tomorrow.  It looks like the majority of the wintry mix will hold off until after the sun comes up tomorrow, though southwestern sections of New England will likely experience some snow/sleet around 5 or 6 AM.  It looks like the bulk of the precipitation will fall between 8 AM and 2 PM and during that time, locations north of the MA border with VT and NH will have a temperature profile that supports snow or a wintry mix.  Fortuntately, surface temperatures will already be above freezing so this will help limit the amount of accumulations.  The further north you go, however, the more likely you are to see a few inches of heavy wet snow.

As the system races eastward tomorrow night, it will take the cloudiness with it and then we are in for some pleasant weather on Thursday.  Lots of sunshine and mild temperatures.  The winds will be light, so there might be a sea breeze that develops that keeps coastal areas from getting too warm.

Sadly, the pleasant weather will be short lived as a few disturbance will slide through New England on Friday and Saturday.  Friday's event appears to be mainly a rain maker, save for a few areas in Northern New England where a wintry mix is possible early in the morning.  Saturday's is a bit more tricky as there will be more cold air available at the mid levels of the atmosphere so more locations will likely experience some snow/sleet/freezing rain.  Right now I expect this to be confined to Central and Northern New England.  Sunday just looks cloudy but dry at this point and will probably be a bit chilly.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

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