Still looking snowy..

Models have trended ever so slightly warmer, but parts of New England are looking at a substantial snow storm this Friday.

Today:  Mostly sunny, highs near 50 south, upper 30s and low 40s north.

Tonight:  A few clouds, lows 30-35 south, single digits and teens north.

Tomorrow:  Some sun early then increasing clouds, highs in the mid 40s south, near 40 north.

Tomorrow night:  Rain and snow develops south, all snow north.  6-10 inches possible in higher elevations of Central and Northern New England, 2-4 in Central MA and Southern New England.  Lows 30 to 35 south, mid 20s north.

Friday:  Rain and snow south in the morning changes to all snow in the afternoon, staying all snow north.  Additional accumulations likely.  Another 6-12 possible north, additional 3-6 possible south.  Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s(coast) south, low 30s north.

Discussion:

This storm is proving to be problematic.  After a few days of the models coming to an agreement, they are starting to deviate again.  One model is bring the low pressure center over New England, which is a warm solution and means more rain.  One model has shifted slightly westward, which is only slightly warmer, but still brings a lot of snow.  Some of the shorter range models are keeping the storm to the East, which is colder and means a LOT of snow.

I've been arguing with myself all morning about how I want to handle this beast.  I've done my best to come up with a consensus solution, which seems like the most logical thing to do at this point.  Here it goes:

We'll see the precipitation develop overnight on Thursday, southern areas will see some mixed precipitation, north of the NH border its going to definitely be all snow.  The storm appears to be moving a bit faster now, so there will be some significant amounts possible before Friday morning.  Northern New England is going to take the brunt of this storm, some places possibly seeing as much as 2 feet of snow.  This will make skiers and the resorts happy.  Further south, across Southern New England, is where the forecast gets tricky.  There will be some rain mixing in and this is where the track of the storm makes a HUGE difference.  I'm taking a middle of the road approach here.  Inside 495 will likely stay mostly rain, AFTER the sun comes up on Friday.  This will last until about 1 PM, at that point, cold air will start to wrap back into the area.  Rain will change over to snow and slushy accumulations, 2-5 inches, are likely.  Outside of 495, north and west toward Manchester.  A brief changeover, or period of mixing is possible, however I'm expecting mainly snow from this system right now.  It is going to be very wet and heavy, currently thinking 4-8 inches here.

I'm going to be watching this as closely as I can today and will put a map together tomorrow to help everyone better understand what I expect to happen.  Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.