Here comes the "warmth"

A chilly start this morning, just a quick check shows a few places that got down to -20.  However, the warm air is already making its push in as those places have already climbed above 0 degrees.  That's quite a swing in a just few hours.

Anyway, high pressure will stay in control today as it slides offshore.  This will turn our winds around to the southwest, helping to usher in the warmer air.  Temperatures will moderate nicely today, getting close to 30 in Northern and Central New England, climbing well into the 30s in Southern New England.  Look for plenty of sunshine for most of the day with a few high clouds moving in throughout the day.

This weekend will prove to be interesting.  A large, complex low pressure system is organizing in the Central United States.  This will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to bring quite a bit of rain to the Ohio Valley, Upstate NY and New England.  Flood watches have already been posted for some spots in Ohio, PA and Western NY and I would imagine more watches will be issued today for Central NY into the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley of NY.

This storm system will be moving very slowly as the upper level winds will be nearly parallel to the surface front.  This means there won't be much west to east push of the storm system.  It won't be until Sunday that a piece of energy moves out of Western Canada that will give this storm system a push to move it into New England.  So, given the slow movement, New England should stay generally dry until later in the day on Sunday.  We should have a decent amount of sunshine on Saturday, which should kick temperatures well into the 40s for most locations, wouldn't be surprised to see a few spots in Southern New England reach 50 degrees.

Temperatures on Sunday should be a bit warmer, especially if we see a few hours of sunshine.  That will be the big question, how much sun will we see, as that storm will be on our door step.  Regardless, Southern New England should easily widespread 50s and 40s elsewhere.  If we see more sun that I currently expect, 60s may be possible for SNE.  The rain should hold off until the late afternoon, maybe even until after the sun goes down.  The location of where the heaviest rain will fall still remains a mystery.  This morning it appears that the heaviest will fall in Central and Northern New England.  Forecast rainfall totals still look impressive with a large area of 2+ inches of rain.  This combined with the amount of liquid remaining in the snow pack will keep flooding possibilities high.  Smaller rivers and streams are at the highest risk because they are likely frozen right now and as the ice breaks up, ice dams may develop.

The majority of the precipitation should fall during the day on Monday, with the possibility of some mixing in Northern New England as the cold air starts to make a return.  Southern and Central New England should see strictly rain from this system.

Beyond Monday we will see temperatures return to seasonable levels, with another warm up throughout the week and another rain event next Friday.

I'll have more throughout the weekend on this storm and the potential for flooding.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.