Dry for now

Flood warnings remain in effect for several locations in New England as rivers are expected to crest until Wednesday or Thursday.

Today:  Mainly sunny, breezy, highs upper 30s to low 40s south, in the 30s north.

Tonight:  Clear, cold, lows 20s south, a wider range of lows north, teens in most spots with some place dropping below 0.

Tomorrow:  Plenty of sunshine, highs in the upper 30s south, low to mid 30s north.

Tomorrow night:  Increasing clouds, lows in the mid teens north, 20s south.

Thursday:  Snow develops, changing to rain south, staying snow or a wintry mix north of Concord, accumulation likely.  Highs around 40 south, low to mid 30s north.

Discussion:  Conditions will remain quiet through today and tomorrow as high pressure is in control.  Daytime highs will be seasonable, in the 30s to low 40s across the region.  Tomorrow, the high pressure system will shift offshore as a low pressure system starts to move in from the Central US.  This will prove to be another tricky storm, as it will bring a wide variety of precipitation to New England.  Right now, the forecast models are still showing a spread in what is going to happen, but I have to make a decision and I feel fairly confident at this point.  It's a bit of a change from yesterday as it looks like Northern New England may end up staying all snow or a wintry mix for the majority of this event.  This will be another prolonged event, because once the low pressure system reaches the Eastern US, it will slow down.  We'll see precipitation develop during the day on Thursday.  Starting as snow nearly everywhere, then changing quickly over to rain in Southern New England.  Central New England will hold onto snow or a wintry mix slightly longer before changing over.  It looks like north of Concord, NH will stay with a wintry type of precipitation into Friday morning.  By that time, it looks like nearly all of New England will have temperatures aloft warm enough to support rain.  However, surface temperatures may be cool enough to cause sleet or freezing rain.  Again, it looks like Northern New England will take the brunt of this receiving a plowable snow and possibly ice accretion.

This will be somewhat of a two phase storm, what we see on Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a break and then another round of what SHOULD be rain for nearly everyone, with a few pockets of a wintry mix.  We may have to worry about flooding again this weekend, depending on where the heaviest rain falls.  Right now most of the models are showing the heaviest rain in the Hudson Valley of NY, but I expect this to waver over the next few days.

Further out, it looks like the weekend will be cold and generally quiet, though a few flurries can't be ruled out at this point.  So still no spring warmth in the next 5 to 7 days and beyond that doesn't look all that promising either....trust me, I'm as ready for Spring as you are.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.