Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Remaining quiet, for now...

Aside from a weak cold front passing through New England today, conditions will remain quiet until we reach the weekend.

There is currently some snow falling across portions of Northern and Central New England, I don't expect it to amount to much.  This snow is falling along a cold front that is pressing southward.  Ahead of this front, if you are currently on the Southern side of it, temperatures should reach the 40s today.  So if you are south and east of Manchester, you have a good chance of hitting the 40s today.  North and west, 30s with temperatures holding steady or slowly dropping throughout the day.  The winds will pick up from the northwest as the day progresses as well.  Chilly air will be surging in behind this front, leading to a cold day tomorrow.  As for precipitation today, I expect to see the majority of what is falling right now, dry up as it heads further south.  Can't rule out a few flurries or light rain/snow showers for the rest of the day.

A dry but cold day tomorrow.  When you factor in the wind, it will be down right frigid tomorrow, but we should see plenty of sunshine.  Daytime highs will only be in the upper teens to low 20s.

Friday begins a period of transition that will lead to warmer temperatures for the weekend, but also some unsettled and potentially significant rain.  A very slow moving cold front will set up, extending from Quebec down toward the Gulf Coast.  Along this front, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be pulled into the mix producing a good deal of rain along this front.  Since the front is moving so slowly, it really won't affect the whole of New England until Sunday night.  The timing of this will likely change, but right now Monday looks like a complete washout.  Northern New England may deal with the precipitation a bit earlier due to the orientation of the cold front.  Right now I'm expecting mainly rain, with areas of mixing, especially during the overnight hours.  This is going to be a prolonged event, starting Saturday and ending early Tuesday morning.

Flooding is going to be a serious, serious concern with this system.  If we see a good deal of rain in the White Mountains on Saturday and Sunday.  The run off and melting, mixed with potentially 3+ inches of rain across Southern New England on Monday and mild temperatures, spells serious flooding concerns.  Obviously, it is still very early, but it is something to think about the next few days, particularly in Southeastern NH and Eastern MA where the rivers drain toward the Atlantic.

I'll have more on this event in the coming days.  Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

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