Quiet today...

Cloudy but seasonable for today, another storm system on horizon for tomorrow.

Today:  Mostly cloudy, highs in the mid and upper 40s south, upper 30s and low 40s north.

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy, lows in the upper 20s south, teens north.

Tomorrow:  Cloudy, chance of rain or snow showers south late in the afternoon, highs 35-40 south, low 30s north.

Tomorrow night:  Rain and snow likely south, chance of snow showers north, lows in the upper 20s.

Thursday:  Rain and snow continues south, chance of snow showers north, highs near 40 south, mid 30s north.

Discussion:

Model discrepancies are abound this morning with the storm system scheduled to arrive on Wednesday night.  This makes it very difficult to give a forecast with any amount of confidence.  For today, we should be dry with seasonable temperatures despite the lack of any sunstained sunshine.  Meanwhile a large low pressure system is gathering in the Upper Midwest.  This is going to be a significant winter storm for this region, winter storm warning and blizzard warnings are in place in the Dakotas this morning.

This system will be progressive and will push eastward today and tomorrow.  As it crosses the Great Lakes and the subsequent path is where the forecast models start to differ.  There is one model that brings heavy amounts of liquids to all of New England, this is a more northerly track.  A few other models seem to prefer a more southerly track, which would restrict the precipitation to Southern New England.  I'm hedging toward the consensus right now, but I'm leaving the mention in the forecast for northern sections for now, in case the track looks like it will be further to the north.  Snowfall amounts are going to heavily depend on the track of the system.  Right now it appears Southern MA(not Southeastern MA), Northern CT and RI are going to have the best chance for a plowable accumulation.  Temperatures during the day on Thursday will get above freezing, so this will keep amounts down a bit.

I'm going to keep an eye on this today and probably write up another update this afternoon after I've seen the morning model runs and see what is happening off to our west.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.