Friday's Irene update

Nothing is set in stone....

Irene's exact track still remains a mystery and right now just about every meteorologist is relying on "trends" in the forecast models.  So what does this mean?  It means that hurricanes are one of the hardest, if not the hardest weather phenomena to predict.  Computer models have very little data to start with over the oceans, not nearly as much as they have over land.  Over land, there are more numerous surface observations, along with weather balloons that give readings far up into the atmosphere.  Upper atmospheric observations essentially don't exist over the open water.  I believe the computer models are able to use data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft.  However, this is only a small picture of inside the storm, not the conditions surrounding the system.

Looking at what is happening this morning, Irene is moving due north and the outer rain bands are getting very close to the coast of North and South Carolina.  The official forecast track as of 8 AM bring Irene over the Outer Banks on Saturday morning.  There is no guarantee that Irene will even make landfall there, the eye could stay offshore complete.  In fact some of the early morning runs are hinting at that.

If Irene does in fact stay off shore of the Carolinas, that is very very good news for us here in New England.  The reason is that if it misses the Outer Banks, it will have already started it's turn toward the northeast and that will put it on a trajectory to miss New England, probably going over Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

Regardless, everyone in New England should be prepared.  A 3 day supply of food and water is a good start.  The benefit of weather technology is that we know that Irene will be close and the utility companies are preparing, as are local officials.

I'll try to provide another update later today as I expect the track to shift a bit further to the east by this afternoon.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.