Here comes Irene

I took some time off this summer, let myself refuel and refresh.  I need to come out of hibernation however as Irene draws closer to the East Coast.

My initial gut feeling about this storm, essentially since it formed last week, was that it really wasn't going to be a threat to the United States.  And for quite sometime, my gut was dead on.  The first few forecasts had Irene heading for Miami.  Then over the next 5 days, the forecast changed from Miami to.....Rhode Island.  That's quite a spread and what can happen if you fall in the love with the computer guidance models too much.

However, over the last 24 hours, it seems we are finally getting a "clearer" picture of what will eventually happen.  There is a still a chance that Irene could stay completely off shore and not technically make landfall on the US mainland.  The chances of it staying off shore now are diminishing though.  The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Irene across the outer banks as a major hurricane(Category 3 or 4) and then it will continue up the coast, weakening as it moves north.  The weakening will occur as it interacts with drier air over the US and the cooler ocean waters north of coast of the Carolinas.  Irene is then forecast to cross Long Island sometime Saturday night or Sunday morning and then will continue into New England.

So you are probably asking, what does this mean for New England.  Well, unless you live in Southern CT, RI or Southeast MA, probably not all that much.  The biggest threat for the interior of New England will be flooding and the possibility of some isolated, weak tornadoes.  Rainfall amounts of 5+ inches are possible which means, swollen streams and rivers and numerous flooded basements.  Once you get about 10 miles inland, I don't believe wind will be a major factor.  There probably will be some trees and limbs down, but I don't expect widespread problems further away from the coast.

Now if you do live on Long Island, Southern CT, RI or in Southeast MA; wind and storm surge are going to be a problem.  There is going to be a lot of water being pushed northward ahead of Irene.  Depending on when high tide is this weekend, which will be between 7 and 9 AM along the South Coast of New England, water levels could be very high.  Unfortunately, the current timing of when Irene arrives coincides pretty closely with the rising tide.  Low lying areas along the South Coast could be inundated with storm surge.  As for the wind threat, we are probably looking at some gusts above hurricane strength for the Eastern half of Long Island and then into Southern CT, RI and southeast MA with most of the sustained winds at 65 mph or less.  Further inland in Southern New England, wind speeds will likely stay below 45 mph with a few gusts north of 50 mph.  Generally no worse than strong Nor'easter.

The biggest question is where the heaviest rain will fall.  The cold front that is expected to move through New England today is forecast to stall across the region.  (By the way, there is the threat of some strong storms this afternoon)  Irene will use this as a path to slide into the region.  Where this front sets up shop will likely be the focal point for a conveyor belt of torrential rain.  My best guess at this time is that Central MA northward into NH and VT, right along the border is where the worst of the rain will fall.  Still 4 days away, so much could change, as I said earlier, Irene could still miss completely and this is all for naught.

Please feel free to ask any questions you might have.  Related to Irene or just hurricane in general.

Thanks for reading and I'll do my best to keep this updated over the next few days.

-Jon K.