Sunday, April 3, 2011

Another storm on the way

A large low pressure system will impact our weather on Monday and Tuesday.

Today:  Plenty of sunshine, highs in the low 50s south, low 40s north.

Tonight:  Increasing clouds, a rain and snow mix develops south, mostly all snow across northern New England, no accumulation expected, lows 30-35 south, mid 20s north.

Tomorrow:  Rain/snow changes to all rain across Southern and Central New England by midday, snow mixes with rain late in the afternoon in Northern New England, 2-4 inches possible in Northern New England, highs in the mid 40s south, upper 30s north.

Tomorrow night:  Rain showers at times, mixing with sleet in Northern New England, lows in the lower 40s south, mid 30s north, temperatures may warm a bit overnight.

Tuesday:  Occassional rain shower, possibly heavy at times, highs in the low to mid 50s south, low to mid 40s north.

Discussion: 
We'll enjoy one more pleasant day today, better than yesterday.  By that I mean we shouldn't see as much cloudiness as we saw yesterday, nor the random downpours that popped up yesterday afternoon.  We should turn our attention westward, at a large low pressure system that is already affecting the Central United States.  This storm contains a lot of energy.  It is tapping into warm air in the southern US and cold air in Canada to create a very strong cold front.  This cold front will be responsible for severe thunderstorms tomorrow across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

Our conditions will be impacted by the warm front associated with the large low pressure system.  This front will arrive overnight tonight and push warm air in aloft.  This is called over-running and generates lift in the atmosphere.  This lift with generate precipitation.  The rain will start from southwest and move northeastward overnight.  Some spots will be cold enough to have a rain and snow mix across Southern New England, but this won't last long and no accumulation is expected.  Gradually temperatures will warm up enough that nearly all of New England will have strictly rain, save for higher elevations of Northern New England.  This all happens during the day on Monday.  We'll probably have a lull in the precipitation on Monday night, though showers can't be ruled out.  This will be the time where we have already had the warm front pass through and we are just waiting for the cold front to arrive.

The timing of the cold front is still up in the air.  A couple of models bring it through midday on Tuesday, other bring it through during the afternoon.  Either way, we are looking at another round of precipitation on Tuesday, some of which could be heavy at times.  Still not ruling out the possibility of a few embedded thunderstorms as the cold front moves through on Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday, we could see a mixed precipitation event on Wednesday, should happen during the daylight hours and there will be limited moisture so no accumulation is expected.  Aside from that, temperatures should be near normal for this time of year, which is right around 50 for Southern areas and near 40 for northern.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

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