Storm Threat

Well, we could go more than a week or so without the threat of what could be a significant storm here in New England.  As with EVERY other storm so far this winter, we are dealing with a lot of model disparity.  The two medium range forecast models have been showing different, but consistent outputs for days, the shorter range models are just starting to gather information as the storm develops in the Northern Plains, so they can't be taken too seriously just yet.

Regardless of if New England sees this storm, this one is going to cause some problems from the Northern Plains, through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.  There are already too many Winter Storm Warnings to count across the Northern Plains.  Heavy snow and wind will cause numerous travel headaches through the middle to end of the this week from Dakotas to the Eastern Seaboard.

The forecast models are differing in one area, the track of the storm.  The intensity is about on par for each, but one model brings the storm up the East Coast after it exits the land near the Delmarva Peninsula while the other pushes it a bit further out to sea.  I expect that we will likely end up meeting somewhere in the middle.

So what does this mean for New England.  Well, rain and snow.  Most places inside of I-95 will predominately rain.  From I-95 north and west in Southern NH and Central MA, snow to a rain/snow mix, possibly to all rain.  North of Manchester, NH, expect to see all snow, but not much in the way of accumulations.  This is just a cursory look at this event right now.  We "hope" to have better information tomorrow as the models begin to hone in on a solution.  All of this fun would begin during the overnight hours of Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Currently I don't expect a major impact on New England from this event as places that will heavy a good amount of precipitation will mainly see it fall in the form of rain.  Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island will be the target for this.

The one that does have me concerned is how long the models try to keep this storm nearby.  It looks like it has the tendency to spin just off the coast of Cape Cod for a period of time.  If we end up with a more northerly/colder solution, this could result in a heavy amounts of snow across the interior of New England.  For now, let's hope that doesn't happen.

I'm ready for Spring.

Thanks for reading, more tomorrow!

-Jon K.