Model convergence

If you live outside of MA-128, be ready for a plow able snowstorm that will begin overnight Wednesday night.  All the forecast models are beginning to hone on a solution, making this, hopefully, one of the easier storms to forecast for this winter season.

The low pressure system that will bring the snow is currently moving through the Ohio Valley and will begin to have a significant impact on the Mid-Atlantic tonight.  Heavy amounts of snow are expected along the Appalachian Mountains from VA north into NY and then eventually into Southern New England.

Temperatures at the surface is going to relatively warm, so expect to see a wet, heavy snow from this storm.  Though the further inland you go, the drier the snow will be.  It looks like we will see somewhere between 1 and 2" of liquid precipitation from this system.  Snow to liquid ratio should be somewhere between 6 to 1 and 10 to 1.  The highest precipitation total appear that they will be where it is mostly rain or heavy wet snow.  So if you do some quick math, highest snow totals will likely be between 10" and 14".  There is some fudging in there for wiggle room.

Here is another beautiful map that I've created of where I think the snow will occur and who will end up with what:

Credit for the base image to Plymouth State Weather

There is going to be pretty sharp gradient to the snow in Eastern MA and Southern NH.  The rain/snow line will set up near Rt 128 in Massachusetts and waver back and forth through the day on Thursday.  That being said, if the storm track shifts further to the north, the snow totals will be much lower and the higher totals will occur mainly in Southern NH.

So, if you leave in or near that dark blue color, make sure your snow blower is ready and you have done your stretches, you could be moving some cement like snow on Thursday.

Thanks for reading, more tomorrow.

-Jon K.