Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Active in the east, but quiet here

We are going to luck out here over the next few days, despite an active weather pattern, conditions in New England should be mainly dry.

Today:  Sunny this morning then some clouds in the afternoon, especially south, highs 50-55 south, in the low 40s north.

Tonight:  Chance of a few showers south, otherwise partly cloudy, lows in low 30s south, teens north.

Tomorrow:  Partly to mostly sunny, highs in the upper 40s south, low 40s north.

Tomorrow night:  Mainly clear, lows 30-35 south, lows in the low 20s.

Friday:  Mix of clouds and sun, highs near 50 south, upper 40s north.

Discussion:

So we're going to experience a few close calls over the next few days, but most of the region will be spared.  There is a weak low pressure system racing through the Great Lakes this morning.  Looking at the radar and the current motion of the system, it looks like this will pass to the south of New England.  Locations along the south coast may deal with some rain drops this evening into the early overnight, but nothing substantial.

Tomorrow should be a pleasant day, though a few degrees cooler.  The lack of a dominant westerly wind will allow for a seabreeze to develop that will keep the majority of New England a bit on the cool side.  This will develop because high pressure is taking hold of the region and our winds will be light.  This high pressure system will come in handy on Friday. 
As I have mentioned over the last couple of days, I was concerned about a storm on Friday.  The development of this high pressure system is going to keep this at bay now.  It will be forced south of New England and our weather again, aside from some clouds, will be quiet.

As we look into the weekend, I'm shading toward the optimistic right now.  Saturday looks like there won't be any problems, but the question mark is on Sunday.  Regardless, Sunday is going to the warmer of the two days, but it could also come with some rain.  For now, I'm not going to mention rain as I think the storm will hold off until Monday morning, or pass to our north.  One model tries to bring precipitation in for Sunday afternoon, but this model hasn't been all that reliable recently.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Storminess continues

Another round of rain on it's way for today, then two more chances at precipitation before we reach the weekend.

Today:  Showers likely, maybe a thunderstorm or two, windy, daytime highs will happen before noon then cooling slightly through the day, 50s south, 40s north.

Tonight:  Any leftover showers end, maybe with some snow mixing in north, lows near 30 south, near 20 north.

Tomorrow:  Partly sunny, more cloudiness during the afternoon hours, breezy,  highs in the mid 50s south, low to mid 40s north.

Tomorrow night:  Chance of a few showers before midnight, otherwise partly cloudy, lows in the low to mid 30s south, near 20 north.

Thursday:  Partly sunny, highs near 50 south, mid 40s north.

Discussion:

It appears that our weather is going to stay active over the next 7 days or so.  Whether or not we will be under the gun of each disturbance that passes through remains the question.  For today, there is a cold front on our doorstep.  This will blast through New England by the early afternoon bringing rain, wind and a maybe a few thunderstorms across Southern New England.  Temperatures are all over the place this morning.  A few spots that were socked in with fog did not have their temperatures warm up overnight.  There are 15 degree temperature differences over short distances in Southern New England because of this.

Once the fog clears and the fronts gets a little closer, the spots that didn't warm overnight should shoot up a few degrees.  Once the front passes through this afternoon, temperatures will start to drop off.  The precipitation should continue into the early evening and by this time, some places may be cool enough for a few snowflakes to mix in.  I expect this to mainly happen in Northern New England.

Tomorrow should generally be pleasant, mild temperatures and decent sunshine.  However, a fast moving disturbance may bring scattered showers during the evening hours.  Beyond Wednesday evening, the forecast models begin to deviate with the path and intensity of the next few events.  Our next chance of precipitation will come either on Friday or Saturday, depending on what model you want to believe.  I'm believe the model that brings the storm in on Friday at this point, since it has been the most consistent.  It looks as if the intensity of this storm has decreased so I don't expect much.  As of now, it only looks to impact Southern New England.  If this trend continues, this storm may pass just to the south of New England.

Once the storm departs on Saturday morning, our weather should be quite nice for the remainder of the weekend.  Next storm beyond that would be early next week.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.