Last Friday update

Not too much to report on, at least in the form of changes.  Models run are just starting to trickle and I'm too tired to stay up to wait for them to finish.

The National Hurricane Center has done something that I find rather curious.  They have shifted their forecast a bit further to the south, despite all the forecast models showing a more northern solution in the latest model runs.  Seems strange to me, but they are professionals and must see something that suggests this.  The offical track from the Hurricane Center takes the center of the system up the Delaware River.

I'm still thinking that this system makes landfall in Central NJ, probably just north of Atlantic City.  At this point, it will no longer be considered a hurricane.  It will have lost all of it's tropical characteristics.  HOWEVER; wind speeds will exceed hurricane force strength, especially wind gusts.  This will particularly be the case on the northern side of the system.

So Northern NJ, NYC, Long Island, Cape Cod and the South Coast of New England will have some very strong winds from this system, despite the center staying south of these areas.  Widespread damage and power outages are expected in this region, with power outages expected from Central NH westward to Buffalo, NY and southward into West Virginia. 

Also, expect to see some heavy snow on the back side of the system, primarily in Eastern Ohio and especially in the hills of West Virginia.  Up to a foot of snow isn't out of the question at higher elevations in WV.

That's going to do it for today.  If anyone has any questions, let me know.  More updates coming tomorrow between my own preparations for this storm.

-Jon

Update #3

All the Friday morning model runs have shifted the track of Sandy further to the north.  This is an interesting development, but not something that should be bought, hook, line and sinker.  It's just one mathematical solution to a very complex storm.

Currently, Sandy is going through a transformation from a tropical system to a subtropical or extra tropical storm.  Recent satellite images show almost no convection on the southern side of the storm.  Full-fledged tropical systems almost always have a closed core of convection.  This transition is happening as it interacts with a strong upper level low pressure system.  As this happens, Sandy will weaken initially, which is already happening.  However, once the transition to fully complete, Sandy will begin to strengthen again.

There are a lot of similarities with this situation and what happened during the "Perfect Storm" in 1991.  They may even happen on the same exact day.

I stress that much can and probably will change over the next couple of days.  However, if you have interests in the Northeast, from Delaware to Portland, ME, you need to start acting now.  I believe that a landfall somewhere between Southern NJ and Montauk, NY is the most likely scenario.

The wind field for Sandy will be very large.  Tropical Storm force winds will extend several hundred miles out away from the center of the storm and there will likely be hurricane force wind gusts on the east and northern side of the system.  To the north of Sandy when she makes landfall will be an area of high pressure.  The collision of Sandy into this high will help to increase wind speeds and this will happen on the north side of the storm's center.

That's enough gloom and doom for now.  More to come....

-Jon