Groundhog day?

Alright folks, we have a couple of days of relief before we have to worry about another plowable snow event.  I'm not going to spend much time talking about that because there is still too much uncertainty at this point.  I'll dive head first into that system tomorrow.  Today I want to change it up a bit.

Yesterday of course, was Groundhog Day.  I'll admit, I don't know much about the history of it, nor do I really care that much.  :-)  It is a tradition however, so it should be honored to an extent.  The rules go as follows:  If the Groundhog sees his shadow, we should expect 6 more weeks of winter, but if he doesn't see his shadow, Spring is right around the corner.

I heard a stat yesterday that the ground hog has only not seen his shadow 15 times in the 100+ years that they have done this.  That basically mean, the other 89(i think) times, he has basically said that spring is going to start on time.  February 2nd, plus 6 weeks puts us very close to the official start of spring.  So basically, things are going according to the nature change of seasons.  This year, he DIDN'T see his shadow, which according to the legend, or whatever you want to call it, Spring will be arriving early.  And it's to that, I call shenanighans, well, partial shenanighans.

Here's why: 
1.  Look at all the snow on the ground.  It's not going anywhere for a while.  Once that cold layer gets there, its hard to move out, cold air is more dense than warm air.  That makes its hard to move.

2.  There is a large cork in the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean.  This plug in the atmosphere is essentially restricting the zonal, west to east, flow around the earth.  Instead of the west to east flow, we have a more north to south flow, and that is pulling air from Russia, across Canada down into the Central and Eastern United States.  This is also one of the main reasons we are getting all these storms, we are sitting right on the storm pathway.  Until that blocking high pressure breaks down, the storminess will continue.

There is two things working in our favor.  Longer days and an increasing sun angle.  The more sun we have and the higher it gets in the sky, the warmer it will get.  This will happen even if there is a lot of snow on the ground, it just takes longer.  One of the problems we have had this year is that the sun has not really been out between storms and if it was, it was too darn cold for the sun to do anything to melt or compact the snow.

I'm expecting the frequency of storms to remain moderate to high, but will gradually see them bring more mixed and rain to the region over the next 4 weeks.  I have a feeling we will not have a very nice Spring this year.  It will likely be on the chilly side and unfortunately with all this snow, the concern of flooding will be high.

Lastly, I'm looking for suggestions on what you would like to see in this blog.  Do you have weather questions that you would like answered?  I'm all ears.

You can follow me on twitter @ jpkomarek

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K.

And the plot thickens...

And in this case, plot = snow pack.

I don't even know where to begin.   I feel like I keep saying the same thing in every blog.  It's going to snow and it's currently snowing.

So far it looks like my call for 6-10" of snow from near Providence, RI to Manchester, NH will work out today.  Jackpot is going to be in Central MA.  The back edge of this first round of snow is moving through Central New York right now, but I expect to see that backfill a bit as the second piece of this storm gets closer.  We really won't see much in a break from the snow.  Essentially the snow will "let up" for a 6 to 8 hour period tonight, before picking up in intensity again.

Looking at what the forecast guidance models are showing this morning, forecasting snow totals tomorrow will be difficult.  All of the models are showing a bit more warm air moving in a few thousand feet over our heads than they were originally.  This warmer air moving in works to change the precipitation over from snow to liquid.  Forecast models usually have a difficult time with this as it can be affected by the amount of snow that is currently on the ground.  We all know there is plenty of snow on the ground, but this is another variable that the guidance models struggle with.

OK, so here it goes.  Starting from south to north.  CT, RI and into Southeastern MA will see a brief period of snow overnight into early before the precipitation changes over to sleet and then rain, 2-4" of additional snow there, not including what falls today.

Mass Border of CT and RI north to near Route 2:  This is where it is going to be tricky.  Where that rain/snow/sleet line develops will significantly affect amounts.  4-8" is a good bet here, with some higher amounts in some of the higher elevations, Worcester hills and Berkshires may get over 10".

North of Route 2 into Southern and Central New Hampshire.  This should stay mainly snow and because of that, amounts in this area will be the highest.  Look for an additional 6-12".  This will bring snow totals to between 16 to 24".  I fully expect to see a few spots receive over 2 feet, but I'm not going to forecast for a few outliers.

I'll be back later on today with an update and a look out to what we might see over the weekend.

Thanks for reading!

-Jon K

Here we go again and again...

More snow.  It's coming.

A strong storm developing in the Central United States is going to have a major impact the Eastern half of the country starting today and continuing through Wednesday night.  Travel will be significantly impacted from Dallas to Chicago to Boston.  There are Blizzard Watches up for Chicago and Winter Storm Warnings in effect across parts of the Mississippi Valley.  Check out http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ to see where all the watches, warnings and advisories are currently in effect.

Focusing more on New England, we are looking at a 2 day event.  A smaller scale but still significant snow on Tuesday followed by the main storm on Wednesday with even more snow.  The "good" thing about this 2 day event is that each day will focus on different areas.  Based on what I'm seeing right now, Southern New England will see the brunt of Tuesday's snow, where Central and Northern New England will see the majority of the snow on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, I'm expecting to see the snow start right around sunrise, picking up in intensity after the morning commute.  So it will like be a slow ride to work tomorrow for most commuters.  Amounts should be generally uniform.  I expect that Central Massachusetts, mainly in the higher elevations will receive the highest amounts.  Look for 4-8 inches of snow stretched out of over a 10 to 12 hour period on Tuesday.

We'll receive a brief break from the snow on Tuesday night before the precipitation arrives with the next system.  Like Tuesday's storm, most of the snow on Wednesday will come during daylight hours, the heaviest of the snow falling between 7 AM and 7 PM.  In Southern New England this will likely be a wet and heavy snow, keeping snow totals down a little bit.  I think there will still be another 6-10 inches north of the Mass. Pike into Southern New Hampshire.  From Manchester, NH northwards into the White Mountains, 1 to 2 feet of snow is a distinct possibility.  South of I-90, amounts will be a bit lower, 4-8 except along the south coast and on the Cape as some rain and sleet will mix in.

It appears that Upstate New York, from Buffalo to the Adirondacks may receive the worst of this system, there could be a long swath of 2 feet of snow.  That swath will likely stretch into Central Vermont and New Hampshire.

If I have a chance I'll update again later about Tuesday's storm and will definitely have more information tomorrow on Wednesday's storm.

-Bearer of bad new Jon  :-)